US CPI July 2026 — Headline 3.4%, Core 2.5%
US CPI rose 0.1% in July 2026 and 3.4% over 12 months; core was 2.5%, down from 2.6%. Shelter drove about two-thirds of the monthly rise. August data is due 11 September at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
One report, two headlines
The same release produced 'stubborn inflation' and 'inflation slows' headlines. The gap comes from what you measure: the all-items rate held at 3.4% year over year, while core — the Fed's preferred signal of underlying pressure — eased to 2.5%. Neither framing is wrong; they answer different questions.[1][2][3]
The Fed's target is not measured with this number
The most common misreading of a US inflation story is comparing the CPI figure directly with the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's target is defined on PCE, not CPI. The two indexes use different baskets and weights, so they diverge even in the same month. Saying 3.4% is 'far from target' therefore measures with the wrong ruler.[1][2]
The headline-versus-core gap matters for the same reason. July headline was 3.4% and core 2.5% — a gap of about one percentage point, driven mainly by food and energy. Those two are volatile, which is why they are stripped out when the question is about the underlying trend. Which number 'US inflation' refers to changes the conclusion.[1][3]
One more mismatch worth knowing: the 12-month change is published on the unadjusted series while the monthly change is seasonally adjusted. Lining a seasonally adjusted monthly figure up against an unadjusted annual one and doing arithmetic across them does not work.[1]
Next release
August 2026 CPI is scheduled for Friday, 11 September 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The BLS schedule then lists 14 October for September data and 10 November for October data. US consumer prices are normally published in the middle of the following month.[1][4]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
The all-items CPI rose 0.1% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after falling 0.4% in June; the 12-month increase was 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.[1][2] 2 sources · independent
Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 2.5% over the 12 months ending July, down from 2.6% in June.[1][2] 2 sources · independent
The shelter index rose 0.1% in July — accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all-items increase — and 3.2% over the last year (3.3% in June).[1][3] 2 sources · independent
The August 2026 CPI report is scheduled for release on Friday, 11 September 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, with September data due 14 October and October data 10 November.[1][4] 2 sources · independent
Reported, not confirmed
Not cross-checked — do not read as factFrom here on: claims and speculation that are not cross-checked.
Timeline
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 08/16/2026, 14:50
- Body characters
- 1,482
- Sources
- 4 sources adopted
- Model
- claude-opus-5 (review pass)
- Time
- 08/16/2026, 14:50
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (2)
| 08/16/2026, 14:50 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 08/16/2026 | First authored | Updated |
Frequently asked
Is inflation going up or down?
Both readings are true at once: the 3.4% headline rate is elevated, but core inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6% and the monthly change was just 0.1% after June's decline. Which one matters depends on whether you strip out food and energy.[1][2]
Why does shelter matter so much?
Shelter is the largest CPI component. In July it drove about two-thirds of the monthly increase, even though its 12-month rate (3.2%) has been slowly cooling.[1][3]
When is the August 2026 CPI released?
Friday, 11 September 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The next two are 14 October (September data) and 10 November (October data).[4]
Official links
- Official BLS — CPI Home
- Docs 한국어판 — 2026년 7월 미국 CPI