How to Read the Monthly U.S. Trade in Goods and Services Release — BOP vs Census Basis, Goods vs Services, Gold

As of 25 October 2026 (KST); latest release: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026, released jointly by the Census Bureau and BEA at 8:30 a.m. EDT on October 6, 2026. The release states: "Next release: November 4, 2026" (for September 2026). Primary source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-august-2026^[1]

Comparison basis: "All statistics referenced are seasonally adjusted; statistics are on a balance of payments basis unless otherwise specified." July 2026 levels are the revised values published in the release's Exhibit 1 (three-month average: Exhibit 2), in millions of dollars and rounded here to $0.1 billion; the change column repeats the release's own figures. The narrative text of the release does not compare August 2026 with August 2025 month by month, so the year-ago column is this page's calculation from the August 2025 row of Exhibit 1 (for example, a deficit of 105,572 million against 59,642 million, about $45.9 billion larger); only the three-month-average year-over-year change is stated in the release text. The news release page and the full PDF with exhibits are the same joint Census Bureau-BEA release, and BEA's FAQs explain its gold treatment; together they count as one primary source. Figures in the release are rounded, so some published changes differ by $0.1 billion from differences of the rounded levels.^[1][4]

In three lines

1. The monthly release combines goods (from customs records, adjusted to a balance of payments basis) and services (from BEA surveys) into exports, imports and the trade balance.
2. The August 2026 goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion, up $12.7 billion from July: the goods deficit rose to $136.6 billion while the services surplus was $31.0 billion.
3. September 2026 data are due November 4, 2026.^[1]

Goods on a Census basis. "The Census Bureau compiles statistics for goods on a Census basis from information collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) that reflects the movement of goods between foreign countries and the United States."^[2]

Balance of payments basis. "Goods on a Census basis are adjusted by BEA to a BOP basis to align the data with the concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national economic accounts."^[1]

Services. "For categories for which monthly data are not available, monthly statistics are derived from quarterly statistics through temporal distribution, or interpolation." "Monthly country and area detail is not available for goods on a BOP basis or for services."^[1]

Revisions. "Each month, a preliminary estimate for the current month and a revised estimate for the immediately preceding month are released." Exhibit 1 shows both versions of July 2026: the deficit as published last month was 88,576 million dollars (about $88.6 billion) and is now 92,826 million (about $92.8 billion), with exports unchanged at 310,723 million and imports revised from 399,299 million to 403,550 million.^[1][4]

Goods vs services. "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion." "Exports of goods increased $4.4 billion to $205.7 billion in August." "Exports of services increased less than $0.1 billion to $109.5 billion in August." "Imports of goods increased $17.2 billion to $342.2 billion in August." "Imports of services increased less than $0.1 billion to $78.5 billion in August."^[1]

Balance of payments basis vs Census basis. Exhibit 5 puts the August 2026 goods deficit at 136,572 million dollars on a balance of payments basis and 132,069 million (about $132.1 billion) on a Census basis; for July (revised) the two are 123,809 million and 118,856 million. The difference is the net balance of payments adjustments shown in the same exhibit.^[4]

Nominal vs real goods. "The real goods deficit increased $8.7 billion, or 8.2 percent, to $114.7 billion in August, compared to an 11.1 percent increase in the nominal deficit." The nominal figures throughout the release are, as its chart note says, "Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes".^[1]

One month vs longer windows. "The average goods and services deficit increased $9.9 billion to $89.9 billion for the three months ending in August." "Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $25.4 billion from the three months ending in August 2025." "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025." "Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."^[1]

Gold in trade vs gold in GDP. Nonmonetary gold appears among the August changes for both exports and imports ("Nonmonetary gold increased $2.3 billion." for exports; "Nonmonetary gold increased $3.1 billion." for imports). "When incorporating the statistics in this release into BEA’s National Economic Accounts, including Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, BEA replaces exports and imports of nonmonetary gold with an adjustment calculated as the difference between domestic production and industrial use of gold." BEA's FAQ explains: "Only a small share of exports and imports of nonmonetary gold recorded in the ITAs is for industrial use; most transactions are for investment purposes."^[1][2][3]

Published change vs difference of rounded levels. The deficit rose from $92.8 billion to $105.6 billion, a difference of 12.8, while the release reports an increase of $12.7 billion; similarly, goods imports ($342.2 billion) plus services imports ($78.5 billion) come to 420.7 against published total imports of $420.8 billion. Exhibit 1's unrounded million-dollar values are consistent with the published figures: 105,572 minus 92,826 is 12,746 million, and 342,232 plus 78,522 is 420,754 million (this page's observation; the gaps arise only from rounding to $0.1 billion).^[1][4]

Country figures vs totals. Country balances are goods only, on a Census basis. "The seasonally adjusted country and world area data will not sum to the seasonally adjusted commodity-based totals because the seasonally adjusted country and world area data and the commodity-based totals are derived from different aggregations of the export and import data and from different seasonal adjustment models." "Data users should use caution drawing comparisons between the two sets of seasonally adjusted series."^[1]

Country balances as listed (goods, Census basis, August 2026). "The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Netherlands ($7.7), South and Central America ($5.6), United Kingdom ($3.6), Hong Kong ($2.3), Brazil ($1.3), Belgium ($1.2), Australia ($0.6), and Saudi Arabia ($0.4)." "Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with Mexico ($27.7), Vietnam ($24.0), Taiwan ($18.3), China ($16.4), European Union ($11.0), South Korea ($9.4), Canada ($7.1), India ($6.2), Germany ($6.2), Malaysia ($6.0), Italy ($4.3), Japan ($3.7), Ireland ($2.5), France ($1.4), Israel ($0.8), Switzerland ($0.4), and Singapore ($0.3)."^[1]

Advance report vs full release. "Trade statistics in the Advance Report, released on average 24 to 26 calendar days after the end of the reference month, reflect nearly complete coverage of goods trade, while statistics in the FT-900, released on average 34 to 36 calendar days after the end of the reference month, reflect complete coverage."^[1]

Volatile categories. "Because the data series for aircraft is highly variable, users studying data trends may wish to analyze trade in aircraft separately from other trade."^[1]