Conference Board Consumer Confidence vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment — How the Two Surveys Differ

As of 9 October 2026 (KST); Conference Board September 2026 release (29 September 2026) and University of Michigan September 2026 final results (25 September 2026). Primary sources: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence and https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/^[1][2]

Comparison basis: each survey's own previous month (August 2026) and, where the issuer publishes it, September 2025. Index levels are rounded to one decimal place as published; the Conference Board reports changes in index points, Michigan in percent. The two indexes use different base periods (1985=100 and a 1966 base), so 81.9 and 48.1 are not comparable as levels. August Conference Board sub-index levels and the inflation-expectation differences are this page's calculations.^{[1][2][3][4][5]}

In three lines 1. Both are called "consumer confidence", but the Conference Board index asks about business conditions, jobs and expected household income, while Michigan's sentiment index asks about personal finances, national economic conditions and buying conditions for durable goods. 2. In September 2026 both fell: the Conference Board index by 6.7 points to 81.9, Michigan's final sentiment index by 7.0% to 48.1. 3. They differ in sample (online panel vs address-based sample answered on the web), base year and timing (Conference Board on the last Tuesday; Michigan preliminary mid-month and final at month end).^{[1][2][7][12]}

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): base 1985=100, made of a Present Situation Index (current business and labor market conditions) and an Expectations Index (short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions). Family-finance and recession questions are reported but "not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index".^[1]

Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS): five questions on personal finances (past and expected), business conditions over 12 months and five years, and buying conditions for major household items; each relative score is "the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent giving unfavorable replies, plus 100", and the sum is scaled to a 1966 base. Current Economic Conditions and Consumer Expectations are sub-indexes.^[7][10]

Inflation expectations: the Conference Board reports average and median 12-month expectations; Michigan reports the median expected change in prices for the next year and for the long run. Michigan's long-run question asks about the next 5 to 10 years; the issuer notes that the abbreviation "five-year" is used "as a matter of convenience".^{[1][2][4][14]}

Conference Board index construction (technical note, May 2021): five questions — current business conditions, current employment conditions, and expectations six months hence for business conditions, employment and total family income; each is benchmarked to its 1985 average.^[12]

Michigan's monthly survey has about 50 core questions covering personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions, supplemented by "Specific questionnaire items concerning expected changes in inflation, unemployment, and interest rates".^[10]

The Conference Board publishes the index "at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month"; its next release is Tuesday, October 27. Michigan publishes a preliminary reading mid-month and a final reading at month end: in 2026, October Prelim on October 9 and October Final on October 23.^[1][8][10]

Preliminary vs final (Michigan): the August 2026 preliminary index was 51.0 (14 August) and the final 51.7 (28 August), a preliminary-to-final change of 0.7 point by this page's calculation. Michigan's data site is updated after an embargo ending four weeks after the final release.^[5][6][11]

Conference Board, September 2026: 81.9, down 6.7 points; Present Situation 109.3 (-7.9), Expectations 63.6 (-5.9). Net views of current business conditions fell to -1.9% and the labor market differential to +1.7%. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1% (median 5.1%).^[1]

Michigan, September 2026 (final): sentiment 48.1, down 7.0% from August and 12.7% from a year earlier; current conditions 50.9, expectations 46.3. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.4%.^[2][3][4]

What each issuer emphasised: the Conference Board cited weaker views of business conditions and jobs; Michigan's director said views of current and year-ahead expected personal finances "both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns over high prices continuing to climb" (here "both" refers to those two personal-finance measures).^[1][2]

Business and jobs vs personal finances. The Conference Board headline is built from views of business conditions, jobs and income; Michigan's adds personal finances and buying conditions for durables. The two headline indexes therefore summarise different questions, so their levels and monthly moves need not match (this page's reading of the index definitions).^[1][7]

Points vs percent. The Conference Board reports a 6.7-point fall, Michigan a 7.0% fall; the two units and base periods differ, so the size of the moves cannot be compared directly.^[1][2][7]

Average vs median inflation expectations. The Conference Board's 6.1% is an average (median 5.1%); Michigan's 4.6% is a median. The two figures come from separate surveys, so they should be compared over time within each survey rather than with each other.^[1][2][4]

Preliminary vs final. Michigan's August reading moved from 51.0 to 51.7 between its preliminary and final releases. The Conference Board's September figures are preliminary results with a September 23 cutoff; its technical note says final estimates are published with the following month's release.^{[1][5][6][12]}