FOMC Minutes, September 2026 — 12–0 Hike to 3-3/4 to 4%; Most Participants See Another Rise Likely Appropriate by Year End
Fed minutes (Oct. 7, 2026): members voted 12–0 to raise the range 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4%. Most participants judged another increase likely appropriate by year end.
Key figures (minutes of the September 15–16, 2026 meeting, released October 7, 2026)
As of 8 October 2026 (KST); minutes of the FOMC meeting of September 15–16, 2026, released October 7, 2026. Primary source: Federal Reserve Board, "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 15–16, 2026" — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm[1][4]
| Indicator | Previous (July 28–29, 2026 meeting) | Current (September 15–16, 2026 meeting) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago (September 16–17, 2025 meeting) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate target range | 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (held) | 3-3/4 to 4 percent (effective September 17, 2026) | +1/4 percentage point (raised) | 1/4 point below the 4 to 4-1/4 percent range set in September 2025 | Issuer record (FOMC minutes) |
| Interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) | 3.65% | 3.90% | +0.25 pp | -0.25 pp (from 4.15%) | Issuer record (FOMC minutes); pp changes are this page's calculation |
| Primary credit rate | 3.75% | 4.0% | +0.25 pp | -0.25 pp (from 4.25%) | Issuer record (FOMC minutes); pp changes are this page's calculation |
| Standing overnight repo operations rate | 3.75% | 4.0% | +0.25 pp | not directly comparable (September 2025 directive set a minimum bid rate of 4.25%; 2026 directive sets an operations rate of 4.0%) | Issuer record (FOMC minutes); pp change is this page's calculation |
| Overnight reverse repo offering rate | 3.5% | 3.75% | +0.25 pp | -0.25 pp (from 4%) | Issuer record (FOMC minutes); pp changes are this page's calculation |
| Policy vote | 9–3 to hold (3 preferred a 1/4 point increase) | 12–0 to raise | from three dissents to none | September 2025: one member dissented, preferring a 1/2 point cut | Issuer record (FOMC minutes) |
| Total PCE inflation, 12-month, latest staff estimate in the minutes | 3.7% (June, staff estimate) | 3.8% (August, staff estimate) | +0.1 pp (different reference months) | +1.1 pp (from a 2.7% estimate for August 2025) | Issuer record (FOMC minutes); pp changes are this page's calculation |
| Unemployment rate, as cited in the minutes | 4.2% (June) | 4.1% (July and August) | -0.1 pp | -0.2 pp (from 4.3% in August 2025) | Issuer record (FOMC minutes); pp changes are this page's calculation |
Comparison basis: previous is the July 28–29, 2026 meeting and year ago the September 16–17, 2025 meeting, each as recorded in its own minutes. Rates are shown as published, not rounded further (to two decimals or in quarter-point fractions); inflation and unemployment rates are rounded to one decimal place in the minutes; the PCE row compares the latest staff estimates in each set of minutes (June in the July minutes, August in the September minutes; the July minutes also report 4.1 percent for May) and the unemployment row the latest months cited, so the calendar months differ. Percentage-point differences are this page's calculations. Minutes are released three weeks after the policy decision.[1][2][3][4]
In three lines 1. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, 2026, by a 12–0 vote, effective September 17. 2. The minutes say almost all participants saw inflation risks tilted to the upside while labor-market risks were broadly balanced; most participants assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. 3. Staff estimated 12-month PCE inflation at 3.8% in August (core 3.4%) and cited a 4.1% unemployment rate; the next meeting is October 27–28, 2026.[1]
Policy settings and how long they apply
| Setting | Level | Effective from | Applies until |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal funds target range | 3-3/4 to 4 percent | September 17, 2026 | the Committee changes it; next scheduled meeting October 27–28, 2026 |
| Interest rate on reserve balances | 3.90 percent | September 17, 2026 | changed by the Board of Governors |
| Primary credit rate | 4.0 percent | September 17, 2026 | changed with Board approval |
| Standing overnight repo operations | 4.0 percent | September 17, 2026 | the directive is replaced ("until instructed otherwise") |
| Overnight reverse repo operations | 3.75 percent; limit $160 billion per counterparty per day | September 17, 2026 | the directive is replaced ("until instructed otherwise") |
The domestic policy directive took effect on September 17, 2026, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York executes it "until instructed otherwise". The minutes record that the next meeting was set for October 27–28, 2026.[1]
Comparison terms
Statement vs minutes: the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. on the decision day; the minutes, a fuller record of the discussion, follow three weeks after the decision. Participants vs members: the minutes report the views of participants in the discussion; the policy vote is by Committee members, 12 of whom are listed as voting for the action.[1][4]
Quantifiers: the minutes use set words for how many participants held a view (for example "all", "almost all", "most", "many", "several", "some", "a few", "a couple"). This page quotes them as written.[1]
PCE vs core PCE: core PCE inflation excludes consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices. The staff also estimated August inflation under the BEA's new methodology at 3.6 percent (total) and 3.2 percent (core).[1]
Participants' assessments, as recorded in the minutes (quoted)
On the decision: "all participants supported raising the target range for the federal funds rate 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent." "Many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds", while "A number of participants viewed a higher path for the target range as necessary based on their modal outlooks rather than on risk-management grounds."[1]
On the outlook: "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end", while emphasizing that "decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information and its implications for the outlook and the balance of risks." Several participants "viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive."[1]
On risks: "Participants generally assessed inflation risk as skewed to the upside; some participants remarked that those risks had become more skewed to the upside in recent months." On jobs: participants "generally viewed the labor market as close to maximum employment."[1]
Staff review and outlook
Staff estimated 12-month total PCE inflation at 3.8% in August and core at 3.4%. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in July and August. Staff projected inflation to step down over the next two years and reach 2 percent in 2029, and saw risks to the inflation forecast as skewed to the upside.[1]
Markets: nominal Treasury yields rose around 35 basis points across 2- to 10-year maturities over the intermeeting period; the Desk had paused reserve management purchases. 18 participants submitted economic projections.[1]
Reading in pairs
July vs September. In July the Committee held the range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent by 9–3, with three members preferring a 1/4 point increase; in September all participants supported the increase and the vote was 12–0. The July minutes said many participants saw tightening as likely necessary if inflation did not decline.[1][2]
Inflation risks vs labor-market risks. Almost all participants saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, while risks to the labor market were seen as diminished and broadly balanced.[1]
Risk-management vs modal outlook. Many participants framed a higher rate path as insurance against persistent inflation; a number saw it as necessary under their central (modal) outlooks.[1]
A year earlier. In September 2025 the Committee lowered the range by 1/4 point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent, with one member preferring a 1/2 point cut; the new range is 1/4 point below that level.[1][3]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
At its September 15–16, 2026 meeting the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, effective September 17, 2026; the statement was approved by a 12–0 vote.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The Board of Governors raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent and the primary credit rate to 4.0 percent, both effective September 17, 2026; the directive sets standing overnight repo operations at 4.0 percent and overnight reverse repo operations at 3.75 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The minutes record that almost all participants assessed inflation risks as tilted to the upside and labor-market risks as broadly balanced, and that most participants assessed another increase would likely be appropriate by year end.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Staff estimated 12-month PCE inflation at 3.8 percent in August and core PCE at 3.4 percent (3.6 and 3.2 percent under the BEA's new methodology); the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in July and August.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
At the July 28–29, 2026 meeting the Committee maintained the range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent by a 9–3 vote; Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan preferred a 1/4 point increase. IORB was kept at 3.65 percent.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
At the September 16–17, 2025 meeting the Committee lowered the range to 4 to 4-1/4 percent, with one member preferring a 1/2 point cut; IORB was set at 4.15 percent and the primary credit rate at 4.25 percent.[3] 1 source · authoritative record
The minutes were released on October 7, 2026; the Federal Reserve releases minutes three weeks after the policy decision. The next meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026.[1][4] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Participants judged that a higher target range would support a timelier return of inflation to 2 percent; many described it as prudent risk management against persistent inflation.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · FOMC participants' assessment, as recorded in the minutes
Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range would likely be appropriate by year end, while stressing that future decisions depend on incoming information.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · FOMC participants' assessment, as recorded in the minutes
IORB, the primary credit rate and the overnight reverse repo offering rate are each 0.25 percentage point higher than after the July 2026 meeting and 0.25 point lower than after the September 2025 meeting. The standing repo rate is 0.25 point above July 2026; its September 2025 setting was a minimum bid rate, so it is not compared here.[1][2][3] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from three sets of minutes
Timeline
- 2026-07-29
FOMC holds the range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (9–3).[2]
- 2026-09-16
FOMC raises the range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent (12–0).[1]
- 2026-09-17
New range, IORB of 3.90 percent and primary credit rate of 4.0 percent take effect.[1]
- 2026-10-07
- 2026-10-28
Second day of the next scheduled FOMC meeting (October 27–28, 2026).[1][4]
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- The decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/08/2026, 17:20
- Body characters
- 7,639
- Sources
- 4 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/08/2026, 17:25
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (4)
| 10/10/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/08/2026 | First version. Read in full the minutes of the September 2026, July 2026 and September 2025 FOMC meetings and the FOMC meeting calendar; quotations and figures matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 10/08/2026 | Pre-publication review findings checked against the sources; confirmed ones applied: as-of date set to 8 October 2026, the PCE row now compares the latest staff estimates (June 3.7 percent and August 3.8 percent), the standing repo rate is marked not directly comparable with the 2025 minimum bid rate, and the title, summary and heading present the outlook as participants' assessments separate from the members' 12–0 vote. | Updated |
| 10/08/2026 | Independent pre-publication review (ChatGPT) against the sources; findings confirmed by the source text were applied. | Updated |
Frequently asked
What did the FOMC decide in September 2026?
It raised the federal funds target range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, by a 12–0 vote, effective September 17, 2026.[1]
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2026?
No further move beyond 3-3/4 to 4 percent has been decided; the minutes say most participants assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. They also said decisions depend on incoming information.[1]
Until when does the new federal funds rate apply?
From September 17, 2026 until the Committee changes it: the directive applies "until instructed otherwise", and the next scheduled meeting is October 27–28, 2026.[1][4]
Why did the Fed raise rates?
The 1/4 point increase followed participants' view that inflation remained elevated with risks skewed to the upside, while the labor market was near full employment and activity was expanding at a solid pace.[1]
What inflation rate did the minutes cite?
Staff estimated 12-month PCE inflation at 3.8% in August 2026 and core PCE at 3.4%; under the BEA's new methodology, 3.6% and 3.2%.[1]
What is the interest rate on reserve balances after the September 2026 meeting?
3.90 percent, effective September 17, 2026 (as of 8 October 2026); the primary credit rate is 4.0 percent.[1]
Official links
Sources
- [1] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15–16, 2026 (released October 7, 2026) primary
- [2] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 primary
- [3] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 16–17, 2025 primary
- [4] Meeting calendars and information (FOMC) primary