FOMC September 2026 Projections — Median End-2026 Rate 4.1% After a Hike to 3.75–4%, Up From 3.8% in June
On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, 12–0. Its median projection for the end-2026 federal funds rate is 4.1% (June: 3.8%); median 2026 PCE inflation is 3.7%.
The decision
The statement: "The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent", approved "by a 12 – 0 vote". It describes inflation as elevated — "Inflation remains elevated." — and says "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."[1]
The rate projections: 4.1% for end-2026
Table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections gives a median end-2026 federal funds rate of 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June. The September medians for 2027–2029 are 4.1%, 3.9% and 3.6%, and 3.2% for the longer run.[2]
Individual rate projections are "the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range" (or the appropriate target level). With the range now 3-3/4 to 4 percent (midpoint 3.875%), a 4.1% median is consistent with a range one quarter point higher by year-end. For 2026, eighteen participants submitted projections, and "When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections." The dot chart (Figure 2) shows the spread: 12 of 18 at 4.125%, 4 at 4.375% and 2 at 3.875% (this page's reading of the chart).[1][2]
Inflation, jobs and growth
Median PCE inflation for 2026 is 3.7% (June 3.6%) and core PCE 3.4% (June 3.3%), falling to 2.3% and 2.5% in 2027. The median unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2026 is 4.1%, down from 4.3% in June. Median real GDP growth for 2026 is 2.3%.[2]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent; the statement was approved by a 12–0 vote.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The September 2026 projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% for end-2026, 4.1% for 2027, 3.9% for 2028, 3.6% for 2029 and 3.2% in the longer run. The June medians were 3.8% for 2026, 3.6% for 2027, 3.4% for 2028 and 3.1% in the longer run (June had no 2029 column).[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Median PCE inflation is projected at 3.7% for 2026 (June: 3.6%) and core PCE at 3.4% (June: 3.3%); the median unemployment rate for 2026 is 4.1% (June: 4.3%); median real GDP growth for 2026 is 2.3% (June: 2.2%).[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Eighteen participants submitted projections for the September 15–16, 2026 meeting (one did not submit projections for 2028 and 2029). The Fed states that when the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Individual rate projections are midpoints of target ranges (or target levels), and 4.1% is the median of those projections. After the September decision the midpoint is 3.875%; one quarter point higher is 4.125%, so the 4.1% median is consistent with a year-end range one step higher. The median alone does not identify the two middle projections, but the published chart (Figure 2) shows 12 of 18 participants at 4.125% for end-2026, 4 at 4.375% and 2 at 3.875%. A year-end level does not by itself fix the number or timing of moves.[1][2] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of Table 1
Between June and September, the displayed median end-2026 rate rose by 0.3 percentage point, the median 2026 unemployment projection fell by 0.2 point and PCE inflation rose by 0.1 point (based on the rounded medians shown in Table 1).[2] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of Table 1
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- The distribution of individual rate projections behind the 4.1% median
- The Committee's reasons beyond the statement
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/04/2026, 23:55
- Body characters
- 1,353
- Sources
- 2 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 00:20
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/04/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/04/2026 | First version. Read the September 16 statement and Table 1 of the projections in full; every quotation and number was matched against the Fed's pages. | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Independent pre-publication review caught an error: the June medians had been assigned to 2026–2029, but June had no 2029 column (they are 2026, 2027, 2028 and longer run). Fixed, and added the dot-chart distribution and clearer wording on medians as suggested. | Updated |
Frequently asked
What did the Fed decide on September 16, 2026?
It raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, by a 12–0 vote.[1]
What is the median Fed projection for the end-2026 rate?
4.1%, up from 3.8% in the June projections.[2]
Does the 4.1% median mean every official expects one more hike?
No. Each official's projection is a range midpoint or target level, and 4.1% is the median of those projections. The dot chart shows 12 of 18 participants at 4.125% for end-2026, 4 higher and 2 at the current 3.875%.[2]
What inflation does the Fed project for 2026?
A median of 3.7% for PCE inflation and 3.4% for core PCE (fourth quarter over fourth quarter).[2]