IMBIE 2026 — 84% of polar ice loss came from faster glaciers, not surface melt
The longest satellite ice-sheet record finds Greenland and Antarctica lost 11 trillion tonnes since the 1970s — 84% from glaciers discharging into the ocean, 16% from surface melt.
★★The headline most reports get backwards
The intuitive picture of polar ice loss is warm air melting ice at the surface. **The new record says that is the smaller half of the story.** ESA reports that **"84% of the combined ice loss resulted from glaciers accelerating and discharging more ice into the ocean, while just 16% was caused by melting at the surface of the ice sheets."**[1]
The lead author puts the same point in words. **Inès Otosaka of Northumbria University**, who led the study, is quoted: **"More than four-fifths of the ice lost was discharged into the ocean by faster-flowing glaciers, rather than melted at the surface – which tells us the long-term trend is being driven b"** — ★**the quotation continues beyond what this page captured**, so only the part confirmed in the source is reproduced here.[1]
★The totals
ESA describes the dataset as **"the longest satellite data record of ice-sheet change ever assembled."** It finds that **Greenland and Antarctica have lost a staggering 11 trillion tonnes of ice since the 1970s, driving global sea level up by more than three centimetres.**[1]
Split by ice sheet: **Greenland accounted for 1.81 centimetres of the sea-level rise, compared with 1.33 centimetres from Antarctica.** ★**Greenland contributed more**, which is worth noting because Antarctica holds far more ice overall.[1]
ESA adds that **"Together, Greenland and Antarctica are now responsible for around a quarter of global sea-level rise."** ★**That is a share, not the whole**: three-quarters comes from other sources, which this article does not enumerate.[1]
★How far back the record goes
The record **"goes back to 1972 for Greenland and 1979 for Antarctica."** Otosaka frames the significance as reach: **"By reaching back to the 1970s, we can now see how the ice sheets have changed across half a century."**[1]
★**The two start years differ**, so "since the 1970s" is a convenience. Any comparison between the two ice sheets covers **slightly different spans** — Greenland has seven more years of record.[1]
★Who produced it
The results come from the **Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise (IMBIE)**, which ESA describes as **"a large international collaboration involving polar scientists from institutes around the world,"** **supported by ESA and NASA**. Its role is to **bring together and reconcile measurements** rather than to produce a single new survey.[1]
**Andrew Shepherd**, also of Northumbria University and **founder of IMBIE**, is quoted beginning **"Just over three centimetres of sea-level rise"** — ★**again the full quotation is not reproduced here** because only that portion was confirmed in the source text.[1]
★**This matters for how to read the figures.** IMBIE reconciles many separate measurement efforts, so its numbers are **a consensus estimate across teams**, not one instrument's reading.[1]
★About the sourcing
★**This page is based on ESA's article about the study, not on the paper itself.** ESA states the results were **"published today in the Nature journal Scientific Data."** **The paper was not opened for this page**, so figures beyond those quoted above — uncertainty ranges, methods, year-by-year values — **are not established here.**[1]
ESA is a **funder of IMBIE**, which makes this an organisation writing about work it supports. **No independent commentary is cited on this page.** For critical assessment, the published paper and other agencies' coverage would be the place to look.[1]
Verified facts
Cross-checked against 2+ independent sourcesThis section contains facts cross-checked against multiple sources.
Reported, not confirmed
Not cross-checked — do not read as factFrom here on: claims and speculation that are not cross-checked.
ESA reports that the new IMBIE record, published in Nature journal Scientific Data, finds Greenland and Antarctica lost 11 trillion tonnes of ice since the 1970s, raising global sea level by more than three centimetres.[1] single-source ×1 · ESA article on the IMBIE results
Timeline
- 2026-09-16
ESA publishes the IMBIE findings; the paper appears in Nature journal Scientific Data the same day.[1]
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 09/18/2026, 22:30
- Tokens
- 9,000
- Sources
- 1 sources adopted
- Model
- operator
- Time
- 09/18/2026, 22:30
- Tokens
- 0
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (2)
| 09/18/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 09/18/2026 | First authored | Updated |
Frequently asked
How much ice have Greenland and Antarctica lost?
ESA reports 11 trillion tonnes since the 1970s, raising global sea level by more than three centimetres. Greenland accounted for 1.81 cm and Antarctica 1.33 cm.[1]
Is the ice melting or flowing away?
Mostly flowing. ESA reports 84% of the combined loss came from glaciers accelerating and discharging ice into the ocean, and just 16% from surface melting.[1]
How much of sea-level rise do the ice sheets cause?
ESA says Greenland and Antarctica together are now responsible for around a quarter of global sea-level rise. The rest comes from other sources not listed in the article.[1]
How far back does the record go?
To 1972 for Greenland and 1979 for Antarctica. The two start years differ, so comparisons between the ice sheets cover slightly different spans.[1]
What is IMBIE?
The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise — an international collaboration supported by ESA and NASA that brings together and reconciles measurements from many teams, rather than producing a single new survey.[1]
Where was the study published?
ESA says the results were published in the Nature journal Scientific Data. This page is based on ESA's article rather than on the paper itself.[1]
Official links
- Official ESA — Observing the Earth