US Back-to-School 2026 — $146.8B Record, 44% of Lists Done
NRF projected a record $146.8B for 2026 US back-to-school: $43.3B K-12, $103.5B college. By early August shoppers had finished only 44% of their lists, and 61% said they were seeing higher prices.
A record season shaped by price anxiety
The 2026 season set records across the board — $43.3 billion for K-12, $103.5 billion for college, $146.8 billion combined — yet the behavior underneath was defensive. A majority of shoppers started by early July and roughly a third began in June, spreading purchases out to manage budgets and beat anticipated price increases.[1][2][4]
Per-family K-12 budgets rose only modestly, to $863.86 from $858.07 in 2025, suggesting the aggregate records owe as much to higher prices and enrollment as to willingness to splurge.[3][4]
How the season actually went
The forecast was a record, but the pace of buying was unusually late. NRF found that as of early August, shoppers had completed only 44% of their list — up from 23% in early July, but still less than half with classes about to start. 52% of K-12 and 48% of college shoppers said they would finish in the final week or two.[5]
This is the part most coverage misses: starting early did not mean finishing early. 62% of shoppers had begun by July, yet the list was still less than half done in August. Spreading purchases out — watching for deals rather than buying in one trip — is itself the price response.[1][5]
What price pressure looked like in behavior
61% of consumers said they were seeing higher prices on back-to-school items. The reported responses were concrete: 46% compared prices across stores, 41% shopped at discount stores, 38% bought fewer items overall, and 30% bought different brands than they would have preferred.[6]
Two figures about deals get quoted interchangeably but measure different things. NRF reports that 48% of purchases were driven by coupons, sales or promotions — that is a share of *purchases*. The Nevada Retail Association figure of 38% refers to shoppers who say they are *looking for* coupons or sales — a share of *people*. Both can be true at once; they are not competing estimates of the same quantity.[5][6]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
The NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics survey projects 2026 back-to-school (K-12) spending at a record $43.3 billion, up from $39.4 billion in 2025 and above the prior survey high of $41.5 billion set in 2023.[1][2][4] 3 sources · independent
Back-to-college spending is projected at a record $103.5 billion, surpassing the previous survey high of $94 billion from 2023.[2][4] 2 sources · independent
Combined back-to-school and back-to-college spending is projected at a record $146.8 billion for 2026.[2][4] 2 sources · independent
Families with K-12 students plan to spend an average of $863.86, up slightly from $858.07 in 2025.[3][4] 2 sources · independent
62% of consumers had started school shopping by early July 2026, with about a third beginning as early as June, as households sought to spread out costs and get ahead of feared price increases.[1][4] 2 sources · independent
61% of consumers said they were seeing higher prices on back-to-school items in 2026; reported responses included comparing prices across stores (46%), shopping at discount stores (41%), buying fewer items overall (38%) and switching brands (30%).[3][6] 2 sources · independent
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
NRF reported that as of early August 2026, back-to-school shoppers had completed an average of 44% of their shopping list, up from 23% in early July.[1][5] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · Single-institution source: National Retail Federation (NRF blog)・National Retail Federation
NRF reported that 52% of K-12 shoppers and 48% of college shoppers expected to finish their shopping in the week or two before school started, and that an average 48% of purchases were driven by coupons, sales or promotions.[1][5] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · Single-institution source: National Retail Federation (NRF blog)・National Retail Federation
Timeline
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 08/23/2026, 01:30
- Body characters
- 1,797
- Sources
- 6 sources adopted
- Model
- claude-opus-5 (review pass)
- Time
- 08/23/2026, 01:30
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (2)
| 08/23/2026, 01:30 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 08/23/2026 | First authored | Updated |
Frequently asked
Why are records being set if consumers feel squeezed?
Partly because prices themselves are higher — families report bracing for increased costs — and partly because enrollment-driven essentials like electronics and supplies are hard to skip. Dollar records can coexist with cautious behavior like earlier, deal-driven shopping.
How does 2026 compare with recent years?
K-12 spending of $43.3 billion tops both 2025 ($39.4 billion) and the previous 2023 record ($41.5 billion); college spending of $103.5 billion clears the 2023 high of $94 billion.
Who conducts this survey?
The National Retail Federation with Prosper Insights & Analytics, in an annual consumer survey released each summer — the standard industry benchmark for the season.
Did shoppers finish early since they started early?
No. 62% had started by July, but as of early August they had completed only 44% of their lists, up from 23% in early July. Most said they would finish in the final week or two before classes began.[5]
How did higher prices change what people bought?
61% said they were seeing higher prices. Reported responses were comparing prices across stores (46%), shopping at discount stores (41%), buying fewer items overall (38%) and choosing different brands than preferred (30%).[6]
Official links
- Official NRF — Back-to-school data and trends
Sources
- [1] Majority of Back-to-School Shoppers Get a Head Start on the Season primary
- [2] Back-to-school spending forecast to reach record highs
- [3] Back-to-school spending ticks up to just over $863 on average for families with students in K-12, survey shows
- [4] Back-to-school spending hit a record high even as families brace for higher prices
- [5] Value drives back-to-school shopping as classes begin primary
- [6] Back-to-school spending shows families seeking value amid higher prices