How to Read the USDA ERS Food Price Outlook — Annual Food Price Forecasts, Intervals and Retail vs Farm Prices
USDA ERS Food Price Outlook (October 23, 2026): all food prices forecast +2.8% in 2026 (interval 2.6 to 3.1%); food at home +2.3%, away from home +3.5%; retail eggs -29.3%, beef and veal +8.7%.
Key figures (Food Price Outlook, October 2026)
As of 4 November 2026, 01:38 KST (retrieved by this page at that time); most recently published forecast: the Food Price Outlook (FPO) of the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), updated October 23, 2026 and incorporating September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The data product page lists the next update of the forecast files as November 24, 2026, as retrieved by this page. Primary source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings[1][2]
| Indicator (annual percent change in calendar-year average prices) | Previous period (2006-25 annual average) | Current period (2026 forecast, with forecast interval) | Change vs previous (percentage points, this page's calculation) | Change vs year ago: September 2026 vs September 2025, CPI or PPI as cited by ERS (not seasonally adjusted) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All food (CPI) | 3.0 | 2.8 (2.6 to 3.1) | -0.2 | +2.5 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
| Food away from home (CPI) | 3.5 | 3.5 (3.4 to 3.7) | 0.0 | +3.5 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
| Food at home (CPI) | 2.6 | 2.3 (1.9 to 2.7) | -0.3 | +1.8 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
| Beef and veal (CPI) | not printed on the cited page | 8.7 (7.4 to 10.1) | not calculated | +3.5 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
| Eggs (CPI) | not printed on the cited page | -29.3 (-31.6 to -26.7) | not calculated | -20.6 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
| Fresh vegetables (CPI) | not printed on the cited page | 5.8 (4.8 to 6.8) | not calculated | +2.8 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
| Farm-level eggs (PPI) | not printed on the cited page | -81.2 (-83.3 to -77.4) | not calculated | -75.3 | levels and forecasts: USDA ERS primary statistical record (CPI and PPI data as cited by ERS from BLS); point differences: this page's calculation |
Comparison basis: forecasts are annual percent changes in calendar-year average prices with ERS forecast intervals; the September year-over-year changes are monthly CPI or PPI comparisons as cited by ERS from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and are not seasonally adjusted, so the two columns measure different things. Values are as published, rounded to one decimal; point differences from the 20-year average are this page's calculations. The two ERS pages count as one source.[1][2]
In three lines
1. ERS's Food Price Outlook forecasts annual changes in U.S. food prices for the current year and, from July, the next year, using statistical models on CPI and PPI data.
2. All food prices are forecast to rise 2.8% in 2026 (interval 2.6 to 3.1%), food at home 2.3% and food away from home 3.5%.
3. Egg prices are forecast to fall 29.3% at retail and 81.2% at the farm level in 2026, while beef and veal prices are forecast to rise 8.7%.[1]
What the forecast says (in ERS's words)
"In 2026, prices for all food are forecast to increase 2.8 percent, with a forecast interval of 2.6 to 3.1 percent." "In 2026, food-at-home prices are forecast to increase 2.3 percent, with a forecast interval of 1.9 to 2.7 percent." "In 2026, food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase 3.5 percent, with a forecast interval of 3.4 to 3.7 percent." "Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 8.7 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 10.1 percent." "Egg prices are forecast to decrease 29.3 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -31.6 to -26.7 percent." "Farm-level egg prices are forecast to decrease by 81.2 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -83.3 percent to -77.4 percent."[1]
How the forecast works. "The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in calendar-year average food prices." "Average prices across all months of one year are compared with average prices across all months of the previous year." "Forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data." "Forecasts are based on the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data available at the time of release."[1][2]
Reading in pairs
Annual average vs September year over year. "Food prices in September 2026 were 2.5 percent higher than in September 2025." The 2026 forecast of 2.8% compares the average of all 2026 months with the average of all 2025 months, so it can differ from a single month's year-over-year change. Egg prices show the gap clearly: -20.6% in September year over year against a -29.3% forecast for the 2026 average.[1]
Point forecast vs interval. "The lower and upper bounds of the forecast intervals are also reported to reflect the level of uncertainty." "In 2027, prices for all food are forecast to increase 1.7 percent, with a forecast interval of -2.5 to 6.2 percent." The 2027 interval spans 8.7 percentage points against 0.5 points for 2026 (this page's calculations); in this page's reading, the 2027 point forecast alone overstates how precisely the 2027 change is known.[1]
Retail vs farm-level prices. "The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain." Farm-level egg prices are forecast to fall 81.2% while retail egg prices are forecast to fall 29.3% in 2026. ERS attributes past egg price swings to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI); these are ERS's explanations, not measured effects in the forecast tables.[1]
Current vs older forecasts. ERS changed its forecasting method in 2023. For a comparison using a consistent methodology, the Historical Data series shows, for years before 2023, the forecasts that would have been produced with the current methods; the Archived Data files hold forecasts as actually published under the previous methodology. The data product page adds: "Users are reminded that the Historical Data series and the archived forecasts are not comparable due to changes in forecasting methods."[2]
Release timing. "ERS typically releases its monthly CPI and PPI forecast updates on the 25th of the month; however, if the 25th falls on a weekend or a holiday, the monthly update will be published earlier." The next update of the CPI and PPI forecast files is listed as November 24, 2026.[2]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
USDA ERS forecasts all food prices to increase 2.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 2.6 to 3.1 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
USDA ERS forecasts food-at-home prices to increase 2.3 percent and food-away-from-home prices 3.5 percent in 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
USDA ERS forecasts retail egg prices to decrease 29.3 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -31.6 to -26.7 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
USDA ERS forecasts beef and veal prices to increase 8.7 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 10.1 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
The 2026 forecast for all food prices (2.8%) is 0.2 percentage points below the 2006-25 annual average of 3.0%.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the ERS Food Price Outlook
The 2027 forecast interval for all food prices spans 8.7 percentage points, against 0.5 points for 2026.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the ERS Food Price Outlook
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- How accurate have past Food Price Outlook forecasts been?
- How much of the forecast egg price decline comes from higher egg production?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 11/04/2026, 01:38
- Body characters
- 6,772
- Sources
- 2 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 11/04/2026, 01:52
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 11/04/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 11/04/2026 | First version. Read in full the ERS Food Price Outlook summary findings and data product page updated October 23, 2026; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 11/04/2026 | Revised after review: the methodology note now explains that the Historical Data series gives a consistent-method comparison and the Archived Data files hold forecasts as published before the 2023 change, which are not directly comparable; midpoint wording is replaced by point forecast. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How much are U.S. food prices forecast to rise in 2026?
2.8% for all food, with a forecast interval of 2.6 to 3.1%, according to the ERS Food Price Outlook updated October 23, 2026; food at home 2.3% and food away from home 3.5%.[1]
Are egg prices forecast to fall in 2026?
Yes: retail egg prices are forecast to decrease 29.3% in 2026 and farm-level egg prices 81.2%; in September 2026 retail egg prices were 20.6% lower than a year earlier, as cited by ERS.[1]
What does the 2026 food price forecast measure?
The 2026 forecast compares average prices across all months of 2026 with average prices across all months of 2025, not one month with the same month a year earlier.[1]
What is the forecast interval in the Food Price Outlook?
A range around the point forecast that ERS reports to reflect uncertainty; for all food it is 2.6 to 3.1% for 2026 and -2.5 to 6.2% for 2027.[1]
Which data does the Food Price Outlook use?
The 2026 forecasts are based on the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data available at the time of release, using statistical models.[2]
When is the next Food Price Outlook update?
The data product page, as retrieved by this page on 4 November 2026, lists November 24, 2026 as the next update of the forecast files; ERS typically updates on the 25th, or earlier if the 25th falls on a weekend or holiday.[2]