How to Read the Census Price Index of New Houses Sold — Constant Quality vs Average Price, Quarterly and Regional

As of 5 November 2026, 00:09 KST (retrieved by this page at that time); most recently published data: the Price Indexes of New Single-Family Houses Sold Including Lot Value from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), with the quarterly U.S. index through the third quarter of 2026 (preliminary) and annual regional indexes through 2025. The Census current-series page for these indexes carries, as the last line of its body text below the general-information entries, the line "Last Revised: October 27, 2026". The cited pages do not state when the next quarterly value is scheduled. Primary source: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/price_sold_cust.xlsx^[1][2]

Spreadsheet record. Every value in the table above, and the other index levels and prices on this page, comes from the Census spreadsheet price_sold_cust.xlsx: retrieved by this page at 2026-11-05 00:09 KST; the file (SHA-256 9b48bfe97fa5e6c9b654eea90017b7d29502dc660f15db0d15d41cd3aa6bcfd3) was opened by this page and the values were read from it (sheet Price Index, rows 67 to 70, for U.S. quarterly, U.S. annual and regional annual indexes; sheets Constant Price US, Constant Price NE and Constant Price MW, rows 68 and 69, for average prices and percent-change cells). The current-series web page and the description papers do not print these values. Of them, only the 2025 U.S. average sales price of $523,800 is also printed on a web page, the Census Characteristics of New Housing highlights.^[1][7]

Comparison basis: index values are as published, to two decimals, with 2005 = 100.0; dollar prices are as published, rounded to the nearest hundred dollars. Calculated percentage changes are this page's, rounded half up to one decimal; the spreadsheet's own percent-change cells are decimal fractions (0.022 means 2.2%). The quarterly index exists only for the United States; regional indexes are annual. The spreadsheet, current-data page, program page and three description papers are all Census Bureau publications and count as one source.^[1][2]

In three lines

1. This Census index prices new houses sold, including the lot; it is designed to hold measured housing characteristics and geographic composition constant, rather than track changes in the mix sold.
2. Per the Census spreadsheet, the third quarter of 2026 (preliminary) was 192.89, down 4.2% from the revised second quarter and 2.4% from a year earlier (this page's calculations).
3. For 2025 the annual index rose 2.2%, while the average price of houses actually sold rose 1.8%.^[1][4]

Which houses. "The data used for computing these indexes are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Construction." "Sold indexes are based on data for a sample of houses that are built for sale with the land upon which the house is situated." Per the description paper, contractor-built houses, owner-built houses and houses built for rent are not included. "The houses sold index incorporates the value of the land and is available quarterly at the national level and annually by region."^[3][5][6]

Constant quality. "The base year we are now using is 2005; its index value is set to 100.0." "This index keeps housing quality constant." The description paper explains that the survey collects only a total house and land price, so price factors for each characteristic are estimated by regression, separately for detached houses in each of the four Census regions and for all attached houses. "Forming strata also improves the regression estimates." "A resistant regression procedure is used that diminishes the impact of unusual observations by down-weighting the data for those observations." The paper also cautions: "Since the regression does not include all of the characteristics that explain price variability and because the characteristics are interdependent, the estimated regression coefficients should not be regarded as estimates of the true price factors."^[3][4]

Base year and revisions. "The base year for the indexes is currently 2005." "When a new set of characteristics is introduced into the index computations, the index for prior periods may be recomputed or the index may be re-based." In the spreadsheet, the 2026 third quarter is marked p (preliminary) and the second quarter r (revised).^[3]

Known limits, as Census states them. "Its greatest strength, constant quality, contributes to its greatest weakness - a bias towards over-stating inflation." "This index does not allow for effects of substitution in housing." "Furthermore, this index assumes that the base year percent distribution of new home sales by geographic area will not change." On uses: "Construction contracts might have a price escalation clause tied to this index."^[4]

Constant-quality price vs average price actually paid. In 2025 the average sales price of houses actually sold rose 1.8% to $523,800, and the average price of the kind of house sold in 2005 rose 2.2% to $581,700. In this page's reading, the difference may partly reflect differences in the mix sold; these figures do not establish how much.^[1][4]

Northeast: mix vs constant quality. The Northeast average sales price of houses actually sold rose 17.7% in 2025 (cell 0.177), to $1,061,300, while its constant-quality index rose 5.9% (this page's calculation, matching the 0.059 cell for the 2005 kind of house). In this page's reading, a large rise in a regional average can reflect a different mix; these figures do not establish how much.^[1]

One quarter vs the run of quarters. The quarterly U.S. index fell 4.2% in the third quarter of 2026, but quarterly values move widely: in 2023 it went from 198.44 in the third quarter to 186.35 in the fourth, a 6.1% fall (this page's calculation), and the annual 2023 index was 186.58. The 2026 third-quarter value is preliminary.^[1]

Index vs typical-house prices. For the Midwest, the index rose 5.1% in 2025 in this page's calculation, while the percent-change cell for the price of the 2005 kind of house shows 0.052; the prices are rounded to the nearest hundred dollars, and the difference is rounding.^[1]

Houses sold vs houses under construction. The sold index includes the lot and covers houses built for sale; the separate monthly index for houses under construction covers all single-family houses, and for it: "Land and other nonconstruction costs are not included in the data." The general information paper adds that the constant-quality (Laspeyres) type tends to overstate inflation and the Paasche type to understate it, and that Census does not publish the Paasche index itself.^[4][5]