How to Read the Census Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report — Adjusted vs Not Adjusted, Shares and Margins of Error
Census e-commerce report: preliminary Q2 2026 estimate of $340.2 billion (seasonally adjusted), 17.1% of retail, as published August 18, 2026; since noted as no longer the most current estimates.
Key figures (Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2nd quarter 2026)
As of 26 October 2026 (KST); most recently published quarterly report: Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2nd quarter 2026, released by the U.S. Census Bureau at 10:00 a.m. EDT on August 18, 2026 (CB26-133). The report page now carries a notice: "As of September 28, 2026 this report no longer contains the most up to date estimates." "Revised not adjusted estimates and corresponding adjusted estimates will be reflected in the 3rd Quarter 2026 Quarterly E-commerce Sales release on November 19, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. EDT." Primary source: https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf[1][4][7]
| Indicator (U.S. retail, billions of dollars unless noted) | Previous (Q1 2026, revised) | Current (Q2 2026, preliminary) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago (Q2 2025) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-commerce sales, seasonally adjusted | 327.9 | 340.2 | +3.8% (±0.4%) | +12.2% (±0.9%) from 303.3 | levels and changes: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1; margins of error from the release text) |
| Total retail sales, adjusted (seasonal, trading-day and holiday) | 1,929.8 | 1,986.5 | +2.9% (±0.2%) | +6.7% (±0.5%) from 1,861.6 | levels and changes: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1; margins of error from the release text) |
| E-commerce share of total retail sales, adjusted (%) | 17.0 | 17.1 | +0.1 percentage point | +0.8 percentage point from 16.3 | levels: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1); changes: this page's calculation from Table 1 |
| E-commerce sales, not adjusted | 301.2 | 329.5 | +9.4% (±0.4%) | +12.4% (±0.9%) from 293.1 | levels and changes: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1; margins of error from the release text) |
| Total retail sales, not adjusted | 1,804.5 | 2,012.0 | +11.5% (margin not stated in the release text) | +6.6% (±0.5%) from 1,887.1 | levels and changes: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1; year-ago margin from the release text) |
| E-commerce share of total retail sales, not adjusted (%) | 16.7 | 16.4 | -0.3 percentage point | +0.9 percentage point from 15.5 | levels: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1); changes: this page's calculation from Table 1 |
Comparison basis: Table 1 is in millions of dollars and this page shows levels rounded to $0.1 billion; percentages and shares are the published figures except the percentage-point changes in the share rows, which are this page's calculations. The adjustment differs by series, as the table footnote says: "Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes." "Total sales estimates are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays." Margins of error (±) are the 90 percent confidence ranges given on page 1 of the release; the release text gives none for the not-adjusted quarterly change in total sales. The release, tables, report page, definitions, FAQs and schedule are all from the Census Bureau and count as one source.[1][2][3]
In three lines
1. The quarterly report is a sample-survey estimate of retail e-commerce sales by employer firms, published alongside total retail sales.
2. The preliminary estimate for Q2 2026, as published on August 18, 2026, was $340.2 billion seasonally adjusted (not adjusted for prices), 17.1% of total retail sales, up 3.8% (±0.4%) on the quarter.
3. Revised estimates and Q3 2026 data are due November 19, 2026.[1][4]
What the report measures (in the Census Bureau's words)
Definition. "E-commerce sales are sales of goods and services where the buyer places an order, or the price and terms of the sale are negotiated, over an Internet, mobile device (M-Commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system." "Payment may or may not be made online."[6]
Who is covered. "Estimates include data only for businesses with paid employees." "Prior to the benchmark report released in April 2025, the Quarterly E-commerce estimates included nonemployers." "Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers, and ticket sales agencies are not classified as retail and are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates."[1]
Part of total retail sales. The release states that e-commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates; asked whether e-commerce sales are included in current monthly retail sales estimates, the FAQ answers: "Yes. In addition, we are separately estimating e-commerce sales." The e-commerce share is therefore a share of a total that already includes the e-commerce sales.[1][6]
Edge cases. For electronic auctions directed at individual consumers, the FAQ says: "Electronic auctions directed at individual consumers are classified as retail trade." "However, commissions and fees, not sales, are included in the e-commerce estimate." "Sales made to a customer in a foreign country via a U.S. web site are included in the estimates." "This may vary slightly from company to company, but according to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), revenue is recognized upon shipment of the merchandise, which is when it would be reflected in the Census Bureau's estimates."[6]
Scope and prices. "The Quarterly Retail E-commerce Report is designed to produce statistics at the national level only." "Consequently, when comparing estimates to prior years, users also should consider price level changes."[5][6]
Reading in pairs
Adjusted vs not adjusted. For Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted e-commerce sales were 340.2 billion dollars and not adjusted sales 329.5 billion. In Q4 2025 the not-adjusted e-commerce share was 18.3%, against 16.7% adjusted (Table 1); quarter-to-quarter comparisons are made on the adjusted figures in the headline.[1][2]
Standard error vs margin of error. Table 2 gives a standard error of 0.2% for the adjusted quarter-to-quarter change in e-commerce sales and 0.5% for the year-ago change. The release's worked example multiplies a standard error of 1.2% by 1.753 to get a margin of error of 2.1%; multiplying the published (rounded) standard errors of 0.2% and 0.5% by 1.753 and rounding to one decimal matches the published page-1 margins of ±0.4% and ±0.9% (this page's calculation; it does not show how the Census Bureau computed them from unrounded values). "Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on data not adjusted for seasonal variation, trading-day differences, or moving holidays, and are used to make confidence statements about both adjusted and not adjusted estimates."[1][3]
Confidence and zero. "The margin of error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval." "If the confidence interval contains 0%, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero." None of the Q2 2026 changes on page 1 has a range that includes zero (this page's reading of the published margins).[1]
Share vs growth. E-commerce grew 12.2% from Q2 2025 while total retail sales grew 6.7%, and the adjusted share rose from 16.3% to 17.1% (published figures; the 0.8 percentage-point change is this page's calculation).[1]
Quarterly report vs monthly advance retail sales. "Advance U.S. retail sales are estimated from a subsample of the MRTS sample that is not of adequate size to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales."[1]
Revisions
"The estimate for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate." Table 1 marks Q2 2026 as preliminary and Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 (adjusted) as revised.[1]
The report page's notice says the August 18 figures are no longer the most up to date and that revised estimates will appear with the Q3 2026 release on November 19, 2026. The release text gives the time as "10:00 A.M. EST" and the notice as "10:00 a.m. EDT"; the release schedule lists 10:00 am.[1][4][7]
Response. "Responding firms account for approximately 68 percent of the e-commerce sales estimate and about 64 percent of the estimate of U.S. retail sales for any quarter." The rest of each estimate is imputed for nonresponding firms.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
The Census Bureau estimated seasonally adjusted U.S. retail e-commerce sales of $340.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 3.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from the first quarter.[1][2] 1 source · authoritative record
Estimated total retail sales were $1,986.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026, seasonally adjusted, and e-commerce accounted for 17.1 percent of the total.[1][2] 1 source · authoritative record
Estimated e-commerce sales in the second quarter of 2026 were 12.2 percent (±0.9 percent) higher than in the second quarter of 2025, while total retail sales were 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) higher.[1][2] 1 source · authoritative record
On a not adjusted basis, estimated e-commerce sales were $329.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026, 16.4 percent of total retail sales.[1][2] 1 source · authoritative record
The Census Bureau says revised estimates will be reflected in the third quarter 2026 e-commerce release scheduled for November 19, 2026.[1][4][7] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
The seasonally adjusted e-commerce share of total retail sales rose 0.8 percentage points between Q2 2025 (16.3%) and Q2 2026 (17.1%), and 0.1 percentage point from Q1 2026 (17.0%).[1][2] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from Table 1
Multiplying the published (rounded) Table 2 standard errors by 1.753 and rounding to one decimal matches the published page-1 margins of error for Q2 2026: 0.2% gives ±0.4% and 0.5% gives ±0.9%.[1][3] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from Table 2 and the release's margin-of-error example
Timeline
- 2026-08-18
Census Bureau releases Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales for the 2nd quarter of 2026.[1]
- 2026-09-28
Report page notes the 2nd quarter 2026 report no longer contains the most up to date estimates.[4]
- 2026-11-19
Scheduled release of 3rd quarter 2026 e-commerce estimates, with revised estimates, at 10:00 a.m.[1][4][7]
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- How much will the November 19, 2026 revision change the Q2 2026 estimates?
- How much of e-commerce growth reflects higher prices rather than more goods sold?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/26/2026, 01:45
- Body characters
- 7,955
- Sources
- 9 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/26/2026, 01:49
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/26/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/26/2026 | First version. Read in full the Census Bureau's 3-page Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales release for the 2nd quarter of 2026, publication Tables 1 and 2 (every cell), the report page and its special notice, the retail definitions, the quarterly e-commerce general FAQs, the release schedule and the e-commerce explanatory material; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 10/26/2026 | Revised after review: the summary and FAQ now say the figures are preliminary estimates as published on August 18, 2026, which the Census Bureau has since noted are no longer the most current; the delimited text versions of Tables 1 and 2 were added as sources and their values matched; the margin-of-error comparison now says that multiplying the published, rounded standard errors by 1.753 and rounding matches the published margins; the margin of error is described as forming a 90 percent confidence interval; and the auction note is limited to electronic auctions directed at individual consumers. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How large were U.S. online retail sales in Q2 2026?
The Census Bureau estimated retail e-commerce sales by employer firms at $340.2 billion in Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for price changes, as preliminary estimates published on August 18, 2026 in the most recently published quarterly report (as of 26 October 2026); the Census Bureau has since noted that this report no longer contains the most current estimates, and this is a sample-survey estimate.[1]
What share of retail sales is e-commerce?
Estimated e-commerce sales were 17.1% of estimated total retail sales in Q2 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and 16.4% not adjusted.[1][2]
Is e-commerce growing faster than total retail?
In the Q2 2026 estimates, e-commerce sales were up 12.2% (±0.9%) on a year earlier and total retail sales 6.7% (±0.5%), both seasonally adjusted and in current dollars.[1]
What does the ± figure mean?
The ± figure is the margin of error used to form a 90 percent confidence interval; for example, the Q2 2026 quarter-to-quarter rise of 3.8% has a margin of ±0.4%, and multiplying the published (rounded) Table 2 standard error of 0.2% by 1.753 and rounding to one decimal matches it (this page's calculation).[1][3]
Are the Q2 2026 numbers final?
No: Q2 2026 is marked preliminary, and since September 28, 2026 the report page says the August 18 figures are no longer the most up to date; revised estimates are due with the Q3 2026 release on November 19, 2026.[1][4]
Does the estimate include restaurants, travel bookings or tickets?
No: the 2026 release says its sample of approximately 10,800 retail firms excludes food services, and online travel services, financial brokers and dealers, and ticket sales agencies are not included in either total retail or e-commerce sales.[1]
Are sales by small online sellers without employees counted?
No: since the April 2025 benchmark report, the estimates include data only for businesses with paid employees; nonemployers were included before that.[1]
Official links
Sources
- [1] Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2nd Quarter 2026 (release CB26-133, PDF) primary
- [2] Table 1. Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce (2Q 2026 publication table) primary
- [3] Table 2. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability for Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales Estimates (2Q 2026 publication table) primary
- [4] Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report (report page with special notice) primary
- [5] Monthly Retail Trade - Definitions primary
- [6] Quarterly E-Commerce Report - General FAQs primary
- [7] Release Dates for 2026/2027 (retail programs) primary
- [8] 2Q 2026 Publication Table 1 (delimited text file) primary
- [9] 2Q 2026 Publication Table 2 (delimited text file) primary