How to Read Census Business Formation Statistics — Business Applications, High-Propensity Filings and Projected Formations
Census Business Formation Statistics: 534,947 business applications in September 2026 (seasonally adjusted estimate), and 29,022 employer businesses projected to form from them within four quarters.
Key figures (Business Formation Statistics, September 2026)
As of 26 October 2026 (KST); latest release: Business Formation Statistics, September 2026, released by the U.S. Census Bureau at 10:00 a.m. EDT on October 14, 2026 (release number CB26-163). The release says: "The October 2026 Business Formation Statistics Report is scheduled for release on November 12, 2026." The schedule adds: "All releases occur at 10:00 a.m." Primary source: https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/pdf/bfs_current.pdf[1][2][7]
| Indicator (U.S., seasonally adjusted, number) | Previous (August 2026, revised) | Current (September 2026) | Change vs previous (as published) | Change vs year ago (September 2025) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business applications (BA) | 532,051 | 534,947 | +0.5% | +22,378 (+4.4%) from 512,569 | levels and monthly change: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1); year-ago change: this page's calculation from the BFS monthly time series |
| High-propensity applications (HBA) | 145,421 | 147,331 | +1.3% | +4,402 (+3.1%) from 142,929 | levels and monthly change: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1); year-ago change: this page's calculation from the BFS monthly time series |
| Applications with planned wages (WBA) | 34,310 | 35,786 | +4.3% | -1,017 (-2.8%) from 36,803 | levels and monthly change: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1); year-ago change: this page's calculation from the BFS monthly time series |
| Applications from corporations (CBA) | 41,033 | 40,951 | -0.2% | -2,776 (-6.3%) from 43,727 | levels and monthly change: Census Bureau primary statistical record (Table 1); year-ago change: this page's calculation from the BFS monthly time series |
| Projected business formations within 4 quarters (PBF4Q) | 28,627 | 29,022 | +1.4% | +1,199 (+4.3%) from 27,823 | levels: Census Bureau primary statistical record (press release; August level from the monthly time series); monthly change: press release; year-ago change: this page's calculation from the BFS monthly time series |
| Projected business formations within 8 quarters (PBF8Q) | 39,293 | 39,703 | +1.0% | +2,035 (+5.4%) from 37,668 | levels: Census Bureau primary statistical record (press release; August level from the monthly time series); monthly change: press release; year-ago change: this page's calculation from the BFS monthly time series |
Comparison basis: all figures are seasonally adjusted counts, except Utilities (22) in the industry table, which the release lists as not adjusted. Levels for September and the revised August figures for applications come from publication Table 1, whose footnote reads "Revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment." The August levels for projected formations and every September 2025 figure come from the Census Bureau's monthly time series; the year-ago changes are this page's calculations, rounded to 0.1%. The release marks its percentage changes with the note "Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable." The year-ago comparison for HBA and CBA uses the current definitions: "As of the January 2026 monthly release, applications associated with internet sales are excluded from the high-propensity (HBA) and corporation (CBA) application series." "The HBA and CBA definitions are updated for the entire time series." The press release, tables, time series and program pages are all from the Census Bureau, so they count as one source.[1][2][3][6]
In three lines
1. Business Formation Statistics count applications for an employer tax ID (EIN) and project how many turn into businesses with payroll.
2. September 2026 had 534,947 business applications (seasonally adjusted estimate, +0.5% from August); 29,022 employer businesses are projected to form from those applications within four quarters (+1.4%).
3. The October 2026 report, which carries the annual update, is due November 12, 2026.[1][2]
What the statistics measure (in the Census Bureau's words)
"The Business Application Series describe the business applications for tax IDs as indicated by applications for an Employer Identification Number (EIN) through filings of the IRS Form SS-4." "The Business Formation Series describe employer business formations as indicated by the first instance of payroll tax liabilities for the corresponding business applications."[1]
Four application series with overlapping subsets. HBA are "Business Applications (BA) that have a high-propensity of turning into businesses with payroll." Table 1 adds: "High-Propensity Business Applications are a subset of Business Applications." "Business Applications from Corporations and Business Applications with Planned Wages are subsets of High-Propensity Business Applications and they are not mutually exclusive."[2][4]
Coverage. "BFS only cover applications for an EIN." "Sole proprietorships with no employees do not necessarily need an EIN." "BFS only consider entirely new employer business formations originating from business applications; new non-employer businesses or new employer businesses formed by existing firms are not included in the business formation measures."[5]
Status. "BFS does not currently have the official economic indicator designation provided by Statistical Directive 4."[5]
Timing and reliability. "Monthly BFS data are released approximately 11-12 days after the end of the observed month." "The statistics presented in this release are based on administrative data and therefore are not subject to sampling error." "There is also projection error associated with the projected business formation series."[1][8]
Reading in pairs
Applications vs formations. "The projected business formations are forward looking, providing an estimate of the number of new business startups that will appear from the cohort of business applications in a given month." "It does not provide an estimate of the total number of business startups that appeared within a specific month." "Statistics on actual business formations are available up to the latest quarter for which administrative data identifies employer business startup activity based on first payroll observation, currently the fourth quarter of 2023."[1]
All applications vs high-propensity applications. HBA were 147,331 of 534,947 business applications in September 2026, or 27.5% (this page's calculation; denominator: business applications in Table 1). The series overlap, so they are not added together: "Detail from the various series will not add to the total as the series are not mutually exclusive."[2][4]
Seasonally adjusted vs not adjusted. The monthly time series shows 582,530 business applications for September 2026 before seasonal adjustment, against 534,947 after it; month-to-month comparisons in the release use the adjusted figures.[3]
Regions vs the total. The four regions add up to the U.S. total in September 2026 (74,958 + 94,891 + 235,028 + 130,070 = 534,947), consistent with the release's note that "All data, with the exception of the industry data, is seasonally adjusted at the state level and summed to create seasonally adjusted United States total and regional data." Monthly changes ranged from +2.6% in the Midwest to -1.8% in the West (this page's comparison of the published regional changes).[1]
Industries vs the total. The 20 industry rows in the release add up to 534,948, one more than the published total of 534,947 (this page's calculation). The release does not explain this particular difference; it notes that "Industry data, except for Utilities (22), is seasonally adjusted at the national level to create adjusted United States total data." and that "Details may not equal totals due to rounding." Retail trade had the largest count in the industry table, 110,048 or 20.6% of the total (this page's comparison and calculation).[1]
Revisions and breaks to watch
Annual update. "The next annual update will be applied during the October 2026 monthly release, scheduled for November 12, 2026." "Also, seasonal factors are recomputed and applied during the annual update, resulting in revisions to our seasonally adjusted series."[1][6]
December 2025. The program page notes an outage of the IRS online EIN application from December 30, 2025, to January 5, 2026: "As a result, the Business Formation Statistics Monthly data for December 2025 and Weekly data for Week 53, 2025 are impacted."[6]
Form changes. On a 2019 change to Form SS-4, the release says: "The form field that the change applies to is not one that the Census Bureau receives and it is not used in the analysis."[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
Seasonally adjusted U.S. business applications were 534,947 in September 2026, up 0.5 percent from a revised 532,051 in August, according to the Census Bureau.[1][2] 1 source · authoritative record
High-propensity business applications were 147,331 in September 2026 (+1.3%), applications with planned wages 35,786 (+4.3%) and applications from corporations 40,951 (-0.2%).[1][2] 1 source · authoritative record
From September 2026 business applications, 29,022 employer businesses are projected to form within 4 quarters (+1.4%) and 39,703 within 8 quarters (+1.0%).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
In the Census Bureau's monthly time series, seasonally adjusted business applications were 512,569 in September 2025.[3] 1 source · authoritative record
The October 2026 Business Formation Statistics report is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. on November 12, 2026, and will carry the annual update.[1][7] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Seasonally adjusted business applications in September 2026 were 22,378, or 4.4%, higher than in September 2025; projected formations within 4 quarters were +1,199 (+4.3%) higher.[1][3] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the Census Bureau's monthly time series
High-propensity applications were 27.5% of all business applications in September 2026.[2] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from publication Table 1
The industry rows add up to 534,948, one more than the published U.S. total of 534,947; the release notes that details may not equal totals due to rounding and that industry data are adjusted separately.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the industry table in the release
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why did applications with planned wages rise 4.3% in September 2026 while applications from corporations fell 0.2%?
- How many of September 2026's applications will actually become employer businesses?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/26/2026, 00:54
- Body characters
- 8,307
- Sources
- 8 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/26/2026, 00:59
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/26/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/26/2026 | First version. Read in full the Census Bureau's 11-page Business Formation Statistics release for September 2026, publication Table 1, the monthly time series rows used here, and the program's definitions, FAQs, main page announcements, release schedule and about-the-data pages; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 10/26/2026 | Revised after review: values from publication Table 1 and the monthly time series were re-extracted cell by cell and matched; the comparison basis now notes that Utilities (22) in the industry table is not seasonally adjusted; the one-unit gap between the industry rows and the total is described only with the release's own notes; the application series are described as overlapping subsets; and the summary and FAQ make clear that projected formations come from September's applications rather than counting businesses started in September. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How many business applications were filed in September 2026?
534,947 business applications in September 2026 (seasonally adjusted estimate), up 0.5% from August, according to the Census Bureau's October 14, 2026 release, the latest as of 26 October 2026.[1]
Is a business application the same as a new business?
No: the 534,947 September 2026 applications are requests for an employer tax ID, and 29,022 is the number of employer businesses projected to form from September's applications within four quarters, not a count of businesses started during September. New businesses without payroll, and new employer businesses started by existing firms, are not counted as formations.[1][5]
Why are formations projected rather than counted?
Actual formations depend on payroll records, which the September 2026 release says are available up to the fourth quarter of 2023, so later months use a projection; the release notes projection error as well.[1]
Are applications higher than a year earlier?
Yes: 534,947 in September 2026 against 512,569 in September 2025, up 22,378 or 4.4% (this page's calculation from the monthly time series, both seasonally adjusted).[1][3]
Why don't the industry figures add up to the total?
The 20 industry rows for September 2026 add up to 534,948 against a total of 534,947; the release notes that details may not equal totals due to rounding and that industry data are adjusted separately, at the national level.[1]
Will these numbers be revised?
Yes: the August 2026 figures in Table 1 are marked as revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment, and the annual update with the October 2026 release on November 12, 2026, recomputes seasonal factors and revises the seasonally adjusted series.[1][2][6]
Is BFS an official economic indicator?
No: as of 26 October 2026, the Census Bureau's FAQ says BFS does not currently have the official economic indicator designation provided by Statistical Directive 4.[5]
Official links
Sources
- [1] Business Formation Statistics, September 2026 (press release CB26-163, PDF) primary
- [2] Business Formation Statistics, Table 1. Business Applications (publication table, September 2026) primary
- [3] Business Formation Statistics monthly time series (CSV) primary
- [4] Business Formation Statistics - Definitions primary
- [5] Business Formation Statistics - FAQs primary
- [6] Business Formation Statistics (program page and announcements) primary
- [7] Release Schedule for the Business Formation Statistics Report primary
- [8] Business Formation Statistics - About the Data primary