How to Read the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report — Eggs in Incubators, Poults Hatched and Net Poult Placements
USDA Turkey Hatchery, U.S. totals only: 26.7 million turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2026 (+2% from a year earlier); 19.6 million net poults placed in September 2026 (+2%).
Key figures (Turkey Hatchery, October 13, 2026 report)
As of 31 October 2026, 00:06 KST; most recently published report: Turkey Hatchery, released October 13, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with U.S. turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2026 and poults hatched and placed during September 2026. The NASS October 2026 calendar lists the release at 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday October 13, with Monday October 12 marked as a holiday; the publication page lists the next scheduled releases on November 13 and December 14, 2026, at 3:00 PM without a time zone. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796103/tkha1026.txt[1][3][4]
| Indicator (United States only, thousands) | Previous (published in the October 13 report, as revised) | Current (October 13, 2026 report) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago (same date or month in 2025) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey eggs in incubators, first of month (1,000 eggs) | 24,814 on September 1 (first published as 25,174) | 26,695 on October 1 | up 8% (published); +7.6% (calculated) | 102 percent of previous year (published) from 26,122; +2.2% (calculated) | levels, published % and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| Poults hatched during the month (1,000 poults) | 21,873 in August (first published as 21,920) | 21,122 in September | down 3% (published); -3.4% (calculated) | 102 percent of previous year (published) from 20,738; +1.9% (calculated) | levels, published % and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| Net poult placements during the month (1,000 poults) | 21,164 in August (first published as 21,213) | 19,571 in September | down 8% (published); -7.5% (calculated) | 102 percent of previous year (published) from 19,096; +2.5% (calculated) | levels, published % and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
Comparison basis: levels are as published in thousands; previous values are the revised figures printed in the October 13 report, with the first published figures from the September 14 report shown alongside. Published changes are whole percentages; this page's calculated changes are rounded to one decimal. The report publishes United States totals only. The two releases, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.[1][2]
In three lines
1. The monthly NASS report gives U.S. turkey eggs in incubators on the first of the month and poults hatched and net poults placed in the previous month.
2. U.S. eggs in incubators on October 1, 2026 were 26.7 million, up 2% from a year earlier.
3. U.S. net poult placements in September 2026 were 19.6 million, up 2% from September 2025 and down 8% from August.[1]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2026 in the United States totaled 26.7 million, up 2 percent from October 1, 2025." "Eggs in incubators were up 8 percent from the September 1, 2026 total of 24.8 million eggs." "Turkey poults hatched during September 2026 in the United States totaled 21.1 million, up 2 percent from September 2025." "Poults hatched were down 3 percent from the August 2026 total of 21.9 million poults." "The 19.6 million net poults placed during September 2026 in the United States were up 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier." "Net poult placements were down 8 percent from the August 2026 total of 21.2 million."[1]
Who reports. "Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries." "Approximately 30 hatcheries in 17 states are contacted each month." "All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible." "Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data." "Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved."[1]
What net placements count. "The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults." "Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report." "This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year."[1]
Reading in pairs
First print vs revised. "Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data." "Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April." Eggs in incubators on September 1, 2026 were first published as 25,174 thousand and revised to 24,814 (-360, this page's subtraction); August poults hatched went from 21,920 to 21,873 (-47) and August net placements from 21,213 to 21,164 (-49). With the revision, September 1 eggs moved from 102 to 101 percent of the previous year (both published).[1][2]
Level error vs change. "This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 26.7 million eggs by more than 2.4 percent." "Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent." The root mean square error for eggs in incubators (2.4%), poults hatched (3.4%) and net poult placements (4.2%) describes how first estimates of a level have differed from final estimates over the past 24 months; it is not a test of whether the 2% year-ago changes are significant, and the report gives no such test.[1]
Month vs crop year. Net placements of 19,571 thousand in September 2026 are also the first month of the 2026-2027 cumulative total; the 2025-2026 cumulative total through August 2026 was 240,038 thousand (as revised).[1]
Census vs coverage. "Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error." The census figures still include estimates for missing operations, and only U.S. totals are published.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
U.S. turkey eggs in incubators totaled 26.7 million on October 1, 2026, up 2 percent from October 1, 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. turkey poults hatched during September 2026 totaled 21.1 million, up 2 percent from September 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. net turkey poults placed during September 2026 totaled 19.6 million, up 2 percent from September 2025 and down 8 percent from August 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS contacts approximately 30 turkey hatcheries in 17 states each month and publishes only United States level estimates.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The USDA publication page lists the next scheduled Turkey Hatchery releases on November 13 and December 14, 2026.[3] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
U.S. turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2026 were revised down by 360 thousand, from 25,174 thousand to 24,814 thousand.[1][2] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's comparison of the September 14 and October 13 releases
U.S. net poult placements in September 2026 (19,571 thousand) were 7.5% below August 2026 as revised (21,164 thousand).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the October 13 release
Timeline
- 2026-09-14
NASS releases Turkey Hatchery with September 1, 2026 eggs in incubators and August placements.[2]
- 2026-10-13
NASS releases Turkey Hatchery with October 1, 2026 eggs in incubators and September placements.[1][4]
- 2026-11-13
Next scheduled Turkey Hatchery release listed on the USDA publication page.[3]
- 2026-12-14
Following scheduled Turkey Hatchery release listed on the USDA publication page.[3]
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why were net poult placements down 8% from August?
- Is the 2% year-ago rise larger than revision noise?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/31/2026, 00:09
- Body characters
- 5,996
- Sources
- 4 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/31/2026, 00:12
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (2)
| 10/31/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/31/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Turkey Hatchery text releases of October 13 and September 14, 2026, including the eggs, hatch and placement tables, methodology and reliability table, plus the publication page and the NASS October 2026 release calendar; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How many turkey eggs were in U.S. incubators on October 1, 2026?
26.7 million (26,695 thousand), 102 percent of October 1, 2025 and up 8% from the revised September 1, 2026 total, according to the NASS report of October 13, 2026.[1]
How many net turkey poults were placed in the U.S. during September 2026?
19.6 million (19,571 thousand), including imported poults and excluding exported poults; that was up 2% from September 2025 and down 8% from August 2026.[1]
Does the October 13, 2026 Turkey Hatchery report give state figures?
No: only United States level estimates are published, due to the limited number of hatcheries involved (about 30 in 17 states).[1]
Was the 2% year-ago rise in U.S. turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2026 statistically significant?
The report does not test it: its 2.4% root mean square error measures how first estimates of the level have differed from final estimates, not whether a change is significant.[1]
Why did the September 1, 2026 U.S. turkey eggs figure change in the October 13 report?
Revisions to the previous month are published each month, generally for late or corrected data: the figure went from 25,174 to 24,814 thousand eggs.[1][2]
When does the U.S. turkey placement crop year run in the Turkey Hatchery report?
From September 1 to August 31; the 2025-2026 cumulative net placements through August 2026 were 240,038 thousand poults, as revised.[1]
Official links
Sources
- [1] Turkey Hatchery, released October 13, 2026 (USDA NASS, text release) primary
- [2] Turkey Hatchery, released September 14, 2026 (USDA NASS, text release) primary
- [3] Turkey Hatchery publication page (USDA ESMIS, page as current on 2026-10-31) primary
- [4] NASS Reports by Date calendar, October 2026 primary