How to Read the USDA Crop Production Report — Monthly Yield and Production Forecasts, and the October 2026 Corn Correction

As of 31 October 2026, 00:21 KST; most recently published report: Crop Production, released October 9, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with U.S. and state forecasts as of October 1, 2026, and reissued on October 23, 2026 with corrected September corn figures. The NASS October 2026 calendar lists the October 9 release at 12:00 pm ET; the publication page lists the next scheduled releases on November 10 and December 10, 2026, at 12:00 PM without a time zone. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796123/crop1026.txt^[1][4][5]

Comparison basis: the October report prints the September 1 yield forecasts as corrected on October 23, not as first published; values before the correction are derived from the changes stated in the NASS notice of October 24. September production is not printed in the October report; it is taken from the September report as reissued on October 23, and percentage changes from it are this page's calculation, shown next to the whole-percent changes NASS publishes. The two reports print different 2025 corn production (17,020,549 thousand bushels in September, 16,963,628 in October); year-ago comparisons use the October report. Year-ago comparisons are with 2025 final estimates; this page's calculated percentages are rounded to one decimal. The report, notices, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.^[1][3][6]

In three lines

1. The monthly NASS report forecasts U.S. and state area harvested, yield and production for field crops, fruits and nuts; its October field-crop yield surveys gathered information for conditions as of October 1.
2. As of October 1, 2026, U.S. corn production is forecast at 16.0 billion bushels (yield 181.2 bushels per acre) and soybeans at a record 4.56 billion bushels.
3. September corn figures for Kansas, Nebraska and the U.S. were corrected on October 23; the October forecasts were not changed.^[1]

"Corn production for grain is forecast at 16.0 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from 2025." "Based on conditions as of October 1, the yield is forecast at 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from the previous forecast but down 5.3 bushels from last year's record high 186.5 bushels per acre." "Soybean production for beans is forecast at a record high 4.56 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from 2025." "All cotton production is forecast at 13.4 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from 2025."^[1]

How the forecast is made. Surveys of sample plots and producers ran from September 24 to October 5, 2026, for conditions as of October 1. "The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the United States production." "Approximately 8,300 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield." "The Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) reviews multiple data sources at the National and State level, including USDA administrative acreage data, satellite imagery, and objective yield and grower reported data."^[1]

The October 23 correction. "The review identified a September processing error involving incorrect acreage weights used to combine irrigated and non-irrigated objective yield observations for Kansas and Nebraska." "The corrected September yield forecasts are 118 bushels per acre for Kansas (down 3), 182 for Nebraska (up 5), and 178.8 for the United States (up 0.3)." "The October forecasts published on October 9 were reviewed, validated, and have not changed." The reissued report adds: "Corrections were made on pages 6, 32, and 33." "The updated estimates were published to the Quick Stats database on October 23, 2026."^[1][2][3]

Corrected September vs October. With the corrected September U.S. corn yield of 178.8 bushels per acre, the published October increase is 2.4 bushels; the Kansas yield moves from a corrected 118 to 125 and Nebraska from a corrected 182 to 188 (this page's subtraction gives +7 and +6). Comparisons against the first published September figures (121 for Kansas and 177 for Nebraska, derived from the notice) would give different changes.^[1][3]

Revision vs correction. "The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season." The September change was described by NASS as the correction of a processing error, announced in separate notices, not as a scheduled revision. "NASS also reviewed and validated the October data and estimation procedures and confirmed that the October yield and production forecasts remain unchanged."^[1][3]

Forecast error vs month-to-month change. "This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.0 percent." "Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent." "This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production." The root mean square error describes how October 1 forecasts have differed from final estimates over 20 years; it is not a test of whether the 1% change from the September forecast is significant.^[1]

Production forecast vs ginnings to date. For cotton the report forecasts the whole crop in 480-pound bales and, separately, notes: "Ginnings totaled 917,150 running bales prior to October 1." The two are different measures and are not comparable bale for bale.^[1]

Forecast vs final. "End-of-season estimates for all other row crops are published in the Annual Crop Production Summary in January." Area figures follow their own revision schedule by crop, set out in the report's revision policy.^[1]