How to Read USDA's WASDE Report — Balance Sheets, Projections vs Estimates, and Reliability

As of 26 October 2026 (KST); most recently published report: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released on October 9, 2026. The report says: "In 2026 the WASDE report will be released on Nov 10 and Dec 10." The FAQ adds: "Lockup is lifted when the report is released at 12:00 noon Eastern time." Primary source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1026.pdf^[1][2]

Comparison basis: every 2026/27 figure is a projection made in October 2026 and compared with the September projection for the same marketing year; 2025/26 values are labelled estimates in the report. The marketing year for corn and soybeans begins September 1 and for wheat June 1 (table footnotes). The month-to-month changes equal the changes stated in the report text; the year-ago changes are this page's subtraction of the published, rounded table values. The tables carry the note "Note: Totals may not add due to rounding." The report, its FAQ and its program page are all from USDA and count as one source.^[1]

In three lines

1. WASDE is USDA's monthly set of supply-and-use projections (balance sheets) for major crops and livestock products, for the United States and the world.
2. As published on October 9, 2026, the 2026/27 U.S. corn crop is projected at 16,034 million bushels and corn ending stocks at 1,849 million, both raised from September.
3. The next reports are due November 10 and December 10, 2026.^[1]

"Separate estimates are made for components of supply (beginning stocks, imports, and production) and demand (domestic use, exports, and ending stocks)."^[2]

Corn, line by line. For 2026/27, beginning stocks (2,095 million bushels) plus production (16,034) plus imports (25) equal total supply of 18,154; domestic use (13,005) plus exports (3,300) equal total use of 16,305; and supply minus use equals ending stocks of 1,849 (this page's check of the published table, which adds up exactly here).^[1]

Prices. "The WASDE reports the average price received by farmers for their crops over the course of the marketing year." "For a marketing year still underway, recent price data is combined with forecasts for the remainder of the year by applying historic marketing weights to price forecasts based on futures markets, anticipated supply and use changes, various modeling techniques, and internal analyses." The corn table's footnote calls it the "Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers."^[1][2]

Who makes it and with what. "WAOB releases the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and leads the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC), a team of USDA experts from across the department." "The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the primary source of information on U.S. crop and livestock production and stocks, while information on foreign production is gathered from many sources including USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) attaché reports, official data released by foreign governments, satellite imagery, and weather data."^[2][3]

September vs October projection. The report explains the corn changes: "Projected beginning stocks for 2026/27 are raised 173 million bushels based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report." "Corn production is higher as well, up 234 million bushels to 16.0 billion on a 2.7-bushel increase in yield to 181.2 bushels per acre." "Total use is increased 125 million bushels to 16.3 billion." It then says that, with supply increased more than use, ending stocks rise by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion. "The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70."^[1]

Text figures vs table figures. The report text rounds: corn production of 16.0 billion bushels in the text is 16,034 million in the table, and ending stocks of 1.8 billion are 1,849 million. Likewise, wheat ending stocks of 740 million are described as 20 percent below last year's 920 million; the table values give a decline of 19.6%, which matches 20 percent when rounded (this page's calculation).^[1]

Area x yield vs production. Harvested corn area of 88.5 million acres times a yield of 181.2 bushels gives 16,036.2 million bushels, close to but not the same as the published production of 16,034 million, because area and yield are shown rounded (this page's calculation).^[1]

U.S. units vs metric tons. U.S. tables use bushels; world tables use million metric tons. With the report's conversion factor for corn (.025401 metric tons per bushel), 16,034 million bushels is about 407.3 million tons, against 407.28 million tons in the world corn table for the United States (this page's calculation; matches when rounded).^[1]

U.S. total use vs world trade. In the world-and-U.S. grain summary, the footnote explains: "Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports)." World export and import totals also need not match; the FAQ says: "World imports and exports may not match for many reasons, including differences in marketing years between countries, shipments in transit reported as exports but not yet as imports, and differences in data collection methods across countries."^[1]

The tables compare historical October projections with the report's defined comparison estimates; for 2025/26, the comparison uses last month's estimate rather than the usual first November estimate. The footnote reads: "Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2024/25, and for 2025/26 the last month’s estimate." For world wheat production, USDA explains: "Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.8 percent." In USDA's historical October-projection record, the reported RMSE and 90% confidence-interval figures for U.S. corn are as follows: the root mean square error of the October production projection is 2.7 percent and the 90 percent confidence interval 4.6 percent; for U.S. corn ending stocks they are 26.8 and 45.2 percent (published reliability table).^[1]

A gap in the record. "There was no WASDE published in October 2013 or October 2025, due to a partial government shutdown, so no 2013/14 or 2025/26 forecasts in that month were published for grains, soybeans, and cotton, and no 2013 or 2025 forecast was published in that month for animal products."^[1]

Soybeans. "Soybean production is forecast at 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million on higher yields." "With a 10-million-bushel increase to exports and unchanged crush, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels to 315 million." "Prices are unchanged for 2026/27."^[1]

Wheat. "Despite the increase, this remains the smallest U.S. wheat production since 1970." "Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised by 23 million bushels to 740 million but are still 20 percent below last year."^[1]