How to Read the USDA Turkeys Raised Report — Preliminary Count, Top States and Historical Revision Error
USDA NASS Turkeys Raised (September 25, 2026): 2026 U.S. forecast 199 million turkeys, up 3% from 2025; Minnesota largest at 34.0 million; top six states 68% of the total.
Key figures (Turkeys Raised, September 2026)
As of 2 November 2026, 00:54 KST; most recently published report: Turkeys Raised from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with the preliminary number of turkeys raised (2026 figures for 11 states, with two additional states withheld, and the United States) and the 2025 number as printed in the same report. The publication listing and the NASS release-day page show September 25, 2026; the sources used give no time of day, and the publication page showed no next date when checked. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796080/tuky0926.txt[1][2][3]
| Indicator (turkeys raised, 1,000 head) | Previous (2025, as printed in the 2026 report) | Current (2026, preliminary) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago: same as previous for an annual series | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 193,500 | 198,500 | up 3% (published); +2.6% (calculated) | same comparison | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page's calculation |
| Minnesota | 33,500 | 34,000 | up 1% (published); +1.5% (calculated) | same comparison | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page's calculation |
| North Carolina | 28,000 | 29,500 | up 5% (published); +5.4% (calculated) | same comparison | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page's calculation |
| Arkansas | 21,500 | 21,000 | down 2% (published); -2.3% (calculated) | same comparison | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page's calculation |
| Missouri | 14,700 | 16,000 | up 9% (published); +8.8% (calculated) | same comparison | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page's calculation |
| Virginia | 15,300 | 14,500 | down 5% (published); -5.2% (calculated) | same comparison | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page's calculation |
| Other States (group changes between years) | 21,500 | 31,100 | 145% of 2025 level (published; not a comparable-group change) | same comparison | levels and published ratio: USDA NASS primary statistical record |
Comparison basis: levels are in thousands of head as published; the headline rounds the U.S. table value of 198,500 thousand to 199 million. Published changes are whole percentages (the table prints 2026 as a percent of 2025); this page's calculated changes are rounded half up to one decimal from the table levels. Because the series is annual, the previous and year-ago columns are the same comparison. California and West Virginia are shown for 2025 but withheld (D) for 2026, when they fall into Other States. The report, publication page and release-day page are all from USDA and count as one source.[1]
In three lines
1. The annual NASS Turkeys Raised report gives the September (preliminary) count of U.S. turkeys raised in the current year, by major state.
2. The 2026 U.S. forecast is 199 million turkeys (198,500 thousand), up 3% from 193,500 thousand in 2025.
3. Minnesota leads at 34.0 million, and the top six states account for 68% of the U.S. total.[1]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2026 is forecasted at 199 million, up 3 percent from the number raised during 2025." "The top six states account for 68 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2026." "The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 34.0 million turkeys, up 1 percent from the previous year." "North Carolina produced 29.5 million turkeys, up 5 percent from a year ago."[1]
What is counted. "Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the marketing year." "These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed."[1]
Where the data come from. "Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually." "Approximately 250 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February." "Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September."[1]
Reading in pairs
Headline vs table. The headline says 199 million and up 3 percent; the table gives 198,500 thousand for 2026 and 193,500 thousand for 2025, a difference of 5,000 thousand and +2.6% (this page's calculation), and prints 103 as the 2026 percent of 2025.[1]
Top six states vs U.S. Minnesota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri and Virginia together total 135.0 million turkeys in 2026, or 68.0% of the U.S. table value (this page's calculation; NASS says 68 percent). Indiana is unchanged at 20.0 million; Virginia is down 5 percent at 14.5 million.[1]
Other States vs withheld states. Other States rises from 21,500 to 31,100 thousand (printed 145), but the footnote says the row includes states withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations, and California (4,300 thousand) and West Virginia (4,000 thousand) are shown for 2025 and withheld for 2026. In this page's reading, the 145 compares different groups of states; adding the two states back to the 2025 row gives 29,800 thousand, and 31,100 is +4.4% from that (this page's calculation).[1]
Preliminary vs final. "Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data." "Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April." "Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data." The 2026 figure here is therefore the September preliminary estimate, and the methodology says the final estimate is published in April.[1]
No sampling error vs revision error. "Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no sampling error." NASS adds that non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication and reporting mistakes cannot be measured directly. For the U.S. number of turkeys raised, the report gives a root mean square error of 1.9 percent over the past 10 years, based on differences between first and final estimates: "This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 199 million turkeys by more than 1.9 percent." "Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.4 percent." At the U.S. level, 1.9 percent of 198,500 thousand is about 3.8 million (this page's calculation). Over those 10 years the first estimate was below the latest in 7 years and above in 3; the average difference was 2,950 thousand, the smallest 1,000 thousand and the largest 11,000 thousand. These figures describe past revisions of the U.S. total only; they are not a significance test of the change from 2025, and the report gives no such measure for states.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
USDA NASS forecast the number of turkeys raised in the United States in 2026 at 199 million, up 3 percent from 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Minnesota was the largest turkey producing state in 2026, at 34.0 million turkeys, up 1 percent from 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The top six states accounted for 68 percent of U.S. turkeys raised in 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The root mean square error for the September estimate of U.S. turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.9 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
U.S. turkeys raised rose 2.6% from 193,500 thousand in 2025 to 198,500 thousand in 2026 in the report's table.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the Turkeys Raised report
With California and West Virginia added back to the 2025 Other States row (29,800 thousand), the 2026 Other States row of 31,100 thousand is 4.4% higher.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the Turkeys Raised report
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why did the number of turkeys raised rise in 2026?
- How large are errors in the state estimates?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 11/02/2026, 00:54
- Body characters
- 6,983
- Sources
- 3 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 11/02/2026, 01:03
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 11/02/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 11/02/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Turkeys Raised report of September 2026, including the state table, footnotes, methodology, revision policy and reliability table, plus the publication page and the NASS Reports by Release Day page; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 11/02/2026 | Revised after review: the scope now says 2026 figures are shown for 11 states, with two additional states withheld, and the United States; the Other States change is labelled as a published level ratio, not a comparable-group change; the title names the historical revision error measure. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How many turkeys will the United States raise in 2026?
199 million (198,500 thousand in the table), up 3% from 193,500 thousand in 2025, according to the NASS Turkeys Raised report of September 25, 2026. The 2026 number is a preliminary estimate.[1]
Which state raises the most turkeys?
Minnesota, at 34.0 million turkeys in 2026, up 1% from 2025. North Carolina is second at 29.5 million and Arkansas third at 21.0 million.[1]
Why does Other States show 145 percent?
In 2026, California and West Virginia are withheld and counted in Other States, while in 2025 they were shown separately at 4,300 and 4,000 thousand. In this page's reading, the 145 therefore compares different groups of states; on a matched basis the change is +4.4% (this page's calculation).[1]
How accurate is the September turkey estimate?
The root mean square error over the past 10 years is 1.9 percent for the U.S. number of turkeys raised, based on differences between first and final estimates. NASS says chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.4 percent; this is a measure of past revisions, not a significance test.[1]
Does the turkeys raised estimate have sampling error?
No sampling error, because it is based on a census of all known grow-out operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. Non-sampling errors remain and, according to NASS, cannot be measured directly.[1]
When does the 2026 turkey figure become final?
The 2026 estimate is preliminary; the NASS methodology says final estimates are published in April, using the February survey and updated hatchery data. The publication page showed no next date when checked.[1][2]
Are turkeys lost to disease included in the 2026 number?
No: the 2026 estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed, and include young turkeys for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the marketing year.[1]