UK GDP, Q2 2026 (Quarterly National Accounts) — Growth Revised Up to 0.5%; 2025 Revised Down to 1.2%
ONS (30 Sept.): UK real GDP grew 0.5% in Q2 2026, revised up from 0.4%; Q1 unrevised at 0.6%. 2025 growth revised down to 1.2%. Household saving ratio 8.8%. Blue Book 2026 due 30 Oct.
Key figures (Q2 2026, quarterly national accounts, released 30 September 2026)
Real GDP, quarter on quarter: +0.5% (first estimate +0.4%). Q1 2026: +0.6% (unrevised).[1]
GDP 2025 (annual): +1.2% (revised down 0.1 points). Q2 2026 level vs Q4 2024: +2.0%.[1]
Real GDP per head: +0.5% QoQ, +1.2% YoY. Nominal GDP: +0.8% QoQ, +3.8% YoY. GDP deflator: +2.4% YoY.[1]
Household saving ratio: 8.8% (Q1 8.6%). Real household disposable income per head: +1.0% to £6,577. Next: Blue Book 2026 on 30 October 2026.[1]
Terms: QoQ = change from the previous quarter (Q1 2026); YoY = change from the same quarter a year earlier (Q2 2025). Real = chained volume measures (inflation removed); nominal = current market prices. ONS calls the implied GDP deflator "the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy".[1]
What changed from the first estimate
Q2 2026 growth was revised from 0.4% to 0.5%, driven by the output approach, mainly professional, scientific and technical activities. Production was revised from no growth to -0.1%.[1]
Export volume growth was revised from 0.5% to 2.8%, and import volume growth from 0.5% to zero. Annual 2025 growth was revised down by 0.1 points to 1.2%, and Q2 2025 from 0.3% (first estimate) to 0.0%.[1]
ONS: since Q1 2000 the mean revision between the first and final (three years later) estimate is "positive 0.08 percentage points", and the mean absolute revision is "0.24 percentage points".[1]
Output, expenditure and income (Q2 2026, % change on previous quarter)
Output: services +0.6% (business-facing +0.7%, consumer-facing +0.4%); construction +0.8%; production -0.1% (manufacturing +0.5%). Professional, scientific and technical activities +2.3%; information and communication +2.5%; education -0.4%.[1]
Expenditure: household consumption +0.3%; government consumption -0.5%; gross fixed capital formation +0.9%; business investment +1.8%; exports +2.8%; imports 0.0%. Trade deficit 1.6% of nominal GDP, or 0.5% excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals.[1]
Income: compensation of employees flat on the quarter (+4.1% YoY); taxes less subsidies +3.2%; gross operating surplus of corporations excluding alignment +2.1%.[1]
Headline indicators (Table 1, % change)
Columns: real GDP / real GDP per head / nominal GDP / implied deflator. Seasonally adjusted; annual row = change from the previous year, quarterly rows = change from the previous quarter; rounded to one decimal place.[1]
2025: 1.2 / 0.9 / 4.8 / 3.6[1]
Q1 2025: 0.6 / 0.5 / 1.5 / 0.9 · Q2 2025: 0.0 / -0.1 / 1.0 / 1.0 · Q3 2025: 0.2 / 0.1 / 0.9 / 0.7[1]
Q4 2025: 0.0 / 0.0 / 0.6 / 0.6 · Q1 2026: 0.6 / 0.6 / 1.5 / 0.8 · Q2 2026: 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.8 / 0.3[1]
G7 comparison (as reported in ONS Table 5, real GDP % change)
Q2 2026 quarter on quarter (2025 annual): Canada 0.8 (1.9) · UK 0.5 (1.2) · United States 0.4 (2.1) · Japan 0.4 (1.2) · Germany 0.3 (0.3) · Italy 0.2 (0.7) · France 0.0 (0.9).[1]
ONS took the non-UK figures from the OECD website on 29 September 2026 and notes that revision policies can differ between countries.[1]
Households
Real household disposable income per head rose 1.0% to £6,577 after a 0.8% fall in Q1. The saving ratio rose to 8.8%: non-pension saving contributed 4.5 percentage points (up from 3.8), and pension saving 4.3 percentage points (down from 4.8).[1]
On the seasonally adjusted non-financial account measure, the UK's borrowing from the rest of the world fell to 2.8% of GDP from 2.9% in Q1 2026.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
UK real GDP grew an estimated 0.5% in Q2 (April to June) 2026, revised up from the first estimate of 0.4%, after unrevised growth of 0.6% in Q1 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
GDP for 2025 is now estimated to have grown 1.2%, revised down by 0.1 percentage points; the Q2 2026 level is 2.0% above Q4 2024 (first estimate 1.9%).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
By output, services grew 0.6%, construction 0.8% and production fell 0.1% in Q2 2026; 13 of 20 GDP subsectors increased.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Education output fell 0.4% and was the largest negative contributor to services growth; ONS attributes this to the closure of some schools during heatwave conditions across much of the UK in June, which also mainly explains the 0.5% fall in real government consumption.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Real household consumption rose 0.3%, gross fixed capital formation 0.9% and business investment 1.8% in Q2 2026; export volumes rose 2.8% (first estimate 0.5%) while import volumes were flat.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Nominal GDP rose 0.8% in the quarter and 3.8% on a year earlier; the GDP implied deflator was up 2.4% on a year earlier.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Real household disposable income per head rose 1.0% to £6,577 in Q2 2026 after a 0.8% fall in Q1; the household saving ratio rose to 8.8% from 8.6%.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The data are consistent with Blue Book 2026, which ONS will publish on 30 October 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Among G7 economies in Q2 2026, only Canada (0.8%) shows faster quarterly growth than the UK (0.5%); the United States and Japan show 0.4%, Germany 0.3%, Italy 0.2% and France 0.0%. ONS notes revision policies differ between countries.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of Table 5 (ONS, using OECD data retrieved 29 September 2026)
In the rounded quarterly growth rates in Table 1 of the 30 September 2026 release, no quarter from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026 is negative; Q2 2025 and Q4 2025 are both reported as 0.0%.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of Table 1
Among the quarters in Table 4, the largest cumulative revision from first to latest estimate is to Q2 2025, first estimated at 0.3% and now 0.0% (a total revision of -0.3 percentage points).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of Table 4
Using the published rounded contributions, non-pension saving (4.5 percentage points) and pension saving (4.3 percentage points) together account for the 8.8% household saving ratio.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's arithmetic check
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- UK GDP for Q3 2026 (July to September)
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 12:00
- Body characters
- 3,081
- Sources
- 1 source adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 10:10
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/05/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/05/2026 | First version. Read the ONS quarterly national accounts bulletin for April to June 2026 in full, including Tables 1 to 7 and the data sources and quality section; quotations, table rows and figures machine-matched against the bulletin text. | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Independent pre-publication review (ChatGPT) against the sources; findings confirmed by the source text were applied. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How much did the UK economy grow in Q2 2026?
Real GDP grew 0.5% in April to June 2026, revised up from the first estimate of 0.4%.[1]
What was UK GDP growth in 2025?
1.2%, revised down by 0.1 percentage points in the September 30, 2026 release.[1]
Did UK GDP fall in any recent quarter?
Not in the rounded figures of the 30 September 2026 release: quarterly growth from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026 was 0.6, 0.0, 0.2, 0.0, 0.6 and 0.5%.[1]
Why did UK real government consumption expenditure fall in Q2 2026?
ONS says the 0.5% fall mainly reflects lower education output after some schools closed during the June heatwave.[1]
What is the UK household saving ratio?
8.8% in Q2 2026, up from 8.6% in Q1 2026.[1]
How does UK growth compare with other G7 countries?
In Q2 2026 only Canada (0.8%) grew faster than the UK (0.5%) in the ONS G7 table; the US and Japan grew 0.4%.[1]
When is Blue Book 2026 published?
ONS says Blue Book 2026 will be released on 30 October 2026.[1]
Official links
- Official Office for National Statistics — GDP