US Real GDP, Q2 2026 (Third Estimate) — 2.2% Annual Rate, Revised Up From 1.5%; Q1 Revised to 2.5%
BEA's third estimate (Sept. 30) puts Q2 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.2% annual rate (0.6% for the quarter), up from 1.5% in the earlier estimates. Q1 was revised to 2.5% from 2.1%.
Key figures (Q2 2026, third estimate, released September 30, 2026)
Real GDP: +2.2% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), reported by BEA as +0.6% at a quarterly rate. Advance estimate 1.5%, second estimate 1.5%.[1]
Q1 2026 (revised): real GDP +2.5% (previously 2.1%); real GDI +2.5% (previously 1.2%).[1]
Prices (Q2, SAAR): PCE price index +5.0%; core PCE +3.3%; gross domestic purchases prices +5.6%.[1]
Corporate profits (profits from current production): +$384.0 billion in Q2, revised down $16.9 billion. Next release: Q3 2026 advance estimate, October 29, 2026.[1]
Terms: quarterly changes are compared with the previous quarter (Q2 vs Q1), not with a year earlier, and BEA scales them to an annual rate. BEA: "Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified."[1]
From 1.5% to 2.2%
"Real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending." The advance and second estimates had both shown 1.5%.[1]
The technical notes trace the investment revision to inventories (new and revised Census inventory data, and USDA farm data) and to fixed investment, where nonresidential structures were led by commercial and health care, "mainly data centers". The government revision was mainly federal defense, "based on updated BEA seasonal adjustment factors for defense spending."[1]
Estimates side by side (percent change, SAAR, Q1 to Q2 2026)
Real GDP: advance 1.5 · second 1.5 · third 2.2[1]
Current-dollar GDP: 7.9 · 8.0 · 8.5[1]
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers: 3.9 · 4.2 · 4.6[1]
Real GDI: not available · 2.2 · 2.6. Average of real GDP and real GDI: not available · 1.8 · 2.4[1]
PCE price index: 5.1 · 5.3 · 5.0. Core PCE price index: 3.4 · 3.6 · 3.3. Gross domestic purchases price index: 5.7 · 5.8 · 5.6[1]
Which industries drove growth
Real value added rose 2.5% in private services-producing industries, 2.3% in private goods-producing industries, and less than 0.1% in government.[1]
Largest contributions (percentage points, SAAR): real estate and rental and leasing 0.57; information 0.52; durable goods manufacturing 0.50; finance and insurance 0.50. Largest offsets: transportation and warehousing –0.37; retail trade –0.27; nondurable goods manufacturing –0.18.[1]
States
Real GDP rose in 44 states and the District of Columbia, from 4.0% in New York to –2.3% in West Virginia (annual rates). Finance and insurance led New York and Delaware; mining led the declines in West Virginia and Wyoming.[1]
Current-dollar (not inflation-adjusted) personal income rose $314.3 billion (4.7% at an annual rate) nationally in Q2, ranging from 6.4% in Wisconsin to –4.2% in North Dakota. Current-dollar PCE rose 5.3% in 2025 (annual change), with every state and DC up, from 7.0% in Florida to 4.2% in California.[1]
The annual update
The release includes the 2026 annual update, which "covered the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026"; "The reference year remains 2017." First-quarter 2026 growth is now 2.5%, up 0.4 percentage point, mainly on services exports and consumer spending.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
BEA's third estimate (September 30, 2026) puts US real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate; the advance and second estimates were both 1.5 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
BEA's technical notes report the 2.2 percent annual rate as 0.6 percent at a quarterly rate, and that quarterly percent changes are displayed at annual rates unless otherwise specified.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The upward revision primarily reflected upward revisions to investment, consumer spending and government spending. The contributors to second-quarter growth were consumer spending, investment and exports; imports, a subtraction in GDP, increased.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
First-quarter 2026 real GDP growth was revised to 2.5 percent from 2.1 percent, and first-quarter real GDI to 2.5 percent from 1.2 percent, as part of the 2026 annual update covering the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
In the second quarter, real GDI rose 2.6 percent, the average of real GDP and real GDI 2.4 percent, real final sales to private domestic purchasers 4.6 percent, and profits from current production rose $384.0 billion (revised down $16.9 billion).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The PCE price index rose 5.0 percent and the core PCE price index 3.3 percent in the second quarter (annual rates), each revised down 0.3 percentage point; the gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.6 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Real GDP rose in 44 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter, ranging from 4.0 percent in New York to -2.3 percent in West Virginia (annual rates).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Figures of 1.5% for second-quarter 2026 GDP growth come from the advance or second estimates and have been superseded by the 2.2% third estimate.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of the release
Measured from the income side, growth was higher: real GDI (2.6%) exceeded real GDP (2.2%) by 0.4 percentage point in the second quarter.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · Comparison calculated from BEA's published estimates
In the revised data, second-quarter growth (2.2%) is below first-quarter growth (2.5%); before the update the figures were 1.5% and 2.1%.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · Comparison calculated from BEA's published estimates
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Exact contributions of each expenditure component to Q2 growth in the third estimate
- Full state-by-state growth rates
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 09:55
- Body characters
- 2,936
- Sources
- 1 source adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 09:43
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/05/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/05/2026 | First version. Read the Q2 2026 third-estimate release in full, including technical notes and the annual-update section; quotations and figures machine-matched against the release text. | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Independent pre-publication review (ChatGPT) against the sources; findings confirmed by the source text were applied. | Updated |
Frequently asked
What was US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.2% at an annual rate in BEA's third estimate (September 30, 2026), revised up from 1.5%.[1]
Did the economy grow 2.2% in three months?
No. 2.2% is an annualized rate; BEA reports it as 0.6% at a quarterly rate.[1]
Why was Q2 GDP revised up from 1.5%?
BEA cites upward revisions to investment (inventories and fixed investment, including nonresidential structures, where it says commercial and health care were mainly data centers, and residential improvements), consumer spending and government (defense) spending.[1]
What was Q1 2026 GDP growth after revision?
2.5%, up from 2.1% previously, after the annual update.[1]
How much did corporate profits rise in Q2 2026?
Profits from current production rose $384.0 billion, revised down $16.9 billion from the previous estimate.[1]
Which state's economy grew fastest in Q2 2026?
New York, at 4.0% (annual rate); West Virginia had the largest decline at -2.3%.[1]
When is the Q3 2026 GDP report?
The advance estimate for the third quarter is scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[1]