Euro Area Inflation, September 2026 Flash Estimate — 3.8% (Up from 3.2%), Energy 18.8%, Core 2.5%
Eurostat flash (2 Oct.): euro area annual inflation 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2%. Energy 18.8%, services 3.2%; excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco 2.5%. Full data on 16 Oct.
Key figures (flash estimate for September 2026, released 2 October 2026)
Euro area annual inflation (HICP): 3.8% (estimate), up from 3.2% in August 2026 and 2.2% in September 2025. Monthly: +0.6%.[1]
Excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco: 2.5% (August 2.4%). Energy: 18.8% (August 14.3%). Services: 3.2% (August 3.0%).[1]
Highest country rate: Lithuania 6.1%. Lowest: Malta 2.4%. Full data: 16 October 2026. Next flash: 4 November 2026.[1]
Terms: Eurostat defines annual inflation as "the price change of consumer goods and services between the current month and the same month of the previous year" and monthly inflation as the change from the previous month. HICP = Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Weights are in per mille (‰) of the euro area basket. Eurostat's general timetable states that the flash estimate is "issued at the end of each reference month".[1]
Energy inflation rose 4.5 points; inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose 0.1 point
Energy inflation rose from 14.3% to 18.8%, and energy prices are estimated up 3.9% in the month alone. Energy carries a weight of 90.3‰ in the index.[1]
By this page's calculation, headline inflation rose 0.6 percentage points while inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco rose 0.1 point (2.4% to 2.5%). Eurostat's release does not state a reason for the energy increase.[1]
Euro area inflation by component (annual %, monthly % for September)
All items (headline HICP) (weight 1000.0‰): Sep 2025 2.2 · Jun 2026 2.8 · Jul 2.9 · Aug 3.2 · Sep 3.8 · monthly 0.6[1]
Excluding energy (weight 909.7‰): Sep 2025 2.5 · Jun 2026 2.2 · Jul 2.2 · Aug 2.1 · Sep 2.3 · monthly 0.2[1]
Excluding energy and unprocessed food (weight 858.3‰): Sep 2025 2.4 · Jun 2026 2.1 · Jul 2.2 · Aug 2.1 · Sep 2.2 · monthly 0.2[1]
Excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco (weight 720.4‰): Sep 2025 2.4 · Jun 2026 2.4 · Jul 2.5 · Aug 2.4 · Sep 2.5 · monthly 0.2[1]
Food, alcohol & tobacco (weight 189.4‰): Sep 2025 3.0 · Jun 2026 1.5 · Jul 1.2 · Aug 1.1 · Sep 1.4 · monthly 0.2[1]
— processed food, alcohol & tobacco (weight 137.9‰): Sep 2025 2.7 · Jun 2026 0.9 · Jul 0.7 · Aug 0.5 · Sep 0.4 · monthly -0.2[1]
— unprocessed food (weight 51.4‰): Sep 2025 3.9 · Jun 2026 3.1 · Jul 2.4 · Aug 2.7 · Sep 4.0 · monthly 1.3[1]
Energy (weight 90.3‰): Sep 2025 -0.4 · Jun 2026 8.5 · Jul 10.3 · Aug 14.3 · Sep 18.8 · monthly 3.9[1]
Non-energy industrial goods (weight 252.2‰): Sep 2025 0.7 · Jun 2026 0.7 · Jul 0.9 · Aug 1.2 · Sep 1.1 · monthly 2.1[1]
Services (weight 468.2‰): Sep 2025 3.2 · Jun 2026 3.2 · Jul 3.3 · Aug 3.0 · Sep 3.2 · monthly -0.7[1]
By country — largest economies (annual % HICP, September 2026 flash)
Germany 3.3 (Aug 2.9; Sep 2025 2.3; monthly 0.6) · France 3.4 (Aug 2.6; Sep 2025 1.1; monthly -0.4) · Italy 4.1 (Aug 3.2; Sep 2025 1.7; monthly 2.0) · Spain 5.0 (Aug 4.6; Sep 2025 3.0; monthly 0.6)[1]
By country — other members (annual % HICP, September 2026 flash)
Belgium 4.6 (Aug 4.2; Sep 2025 2.7; monthly 0.1) · Bulgaria 5.6 (Aug 5.0; Sep 2025 4.0; monthly -0.1) · Estonia 3.0 (Aug 1.3; Sep 2025 5.3; monthly 0.5) · Ireland 3.8 (Aug 3.4; Sep 2025 2.7; monthly 0.2) · Greece 5.1 (Aug 3.7; Sep 2025 1.8; monthly 1.8) · Croatia 4.3 (Aug 3.7; Sep 2025 4.6; monthly 0.0) · Cyprus 5.2 (Aug 5.2; Sep 2025 0.0; monthly -0.4) · Latvia 2.9 (Aug 3.0; Sep 2025 4.2; monthly 0.1) · Lithuania 6.1 (Aug 5.6; Sep 2025 3.7; monthly 0.9)[1]
Luxembourg 5.2 (Aug 4.0; Sep 2025 3.1; monthly 1.0) · Malta 2.4 (Aug 2.0; Sep 2025 2.4; monthly -0.9) · Netherlands 3.0 (Aug 2.8; Sep 2025 3.0; monthly -0.1) · Austria 3.5 (Aug 2.9; Sep 2025 3.9; monthly 0.6) · Portugal 3.6 (Aug 3.6; Sep 2025 1.9; monthly 1.0) · Slovenia 3.7 (Aug 3.4; Sep 2025 2.8; monthly 0.3) · Slovakia 3.1 (Aug 3.1; Sep 2025 4.6; monthly 0.2) · Finland 2.6 (Aug 2.4; Sep 2025 2.2; monthly 0.6)[1]
Euro area composition and timetable
Bulgaria joined on 1 January 2026, making the euro area 21 countries (EA21). Eurostat: "Euro indicator data for months up to December 2025 represent EA20 series, while Euro indicator data for January 2026 onwards represent EA21 series."[1]
The flash estimate is followed by the complete HICP for the euro area, the EU and member states "around the middle of the month following the reference month" — for September 2026, on 16 October 2026.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
Eurostat's flash estimate puts euro area annual inflation at 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August; the monthly rate is estimated at 0.6%.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Energy is expected to have the highest annual rate (18.8%, from 14.3% in August), followed by services (3.2%, from 3.0%), food, alcohol & tobacco (1.4%, from 1.1%) and non-energy industrial goods (1.1%, from 1.2%).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco is estimated at 2.5% (2.4% in August); excluding energy only, 2.3% (2.1% in August).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
A year earlier, in September 2025, euro area annual inflation was 2.2%.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Among the 21 euro area members, flash annual rates range from 2.4% in Malta to 6.1% in Lithuania; Germany 3.3%, France 3.4%, Italy 4.1% and Spain 5.0%.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Since 1 January 2026 the euro area includes Bulgaria (EA21); data from January 2026 onward refer to EA21.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Full HICP data for September 2026 are scheduled for 16 October 2026; the next flash estimate (October 2026) is due on 4 November 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Headline inflation rose 0.6 percentage points from August, while the rate excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose 0.1 point; the energy rate rose 4.5 points.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the release table
Based on the rounded figures shown in the country table, of the 21 member states 17 show a higher annual rate in September than in August, 1 a lower rate (Latvia) and 3 an unchanged rate (Cyprus, Portugal, Slovakia).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's count from the country table
The September 2026 euro area aggregate and component rates are marked 'e' (estimated); in the country table, Slovenia's September rates are not marked 'e'. The full HICP for September follows on 16 October 2026 and may differ from the flash estimate.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of the release
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why energy inflation rose to 18.8%
- The full September 2026 HICP figures
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 12:00
- Body characters
- 3,801
- Sources
- 1 source adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 10:10
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/05/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/05/2026 | First version. Read the Eurostat flash estimate release of 2 October 2026 in full, including both tables and the notes for users; every table row and quotation machine-matched against the release text. | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Independent pre-publication review (ChatGPT) against the sources; findings confirmed by the source text were applied. | Updated |
Frequently asked
What is the euro area inflation rate for September 2026?
3.8% according to Eurostat's flash estimate of 2 October 2026, up from 3.2% in August.[1]
What is core inflation in the eurozone?
Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco is estimated at 2.5% for September 2026, from 2.4% in August.[1]
How did the main eurozone inflation components change in September 2026?
Energy rose to 18.8% from 14.3%, services to 3.2% from 3.0%, and food, alcohol & tobacco to 1.4% from 1.1%; non-energy industrial goods eased to 1.1% from 1.2%. Eurostat's release gives no cause.[1]
Which euro area country has the highest inflation?
Lithuania, at an estimated 6.1%, followed by Bulgaria at 5.6%; Malta is lowest at 2.4%.[1]
What is inflation in Germany, France, Italy and Spain?
Flash HICP annual rates for September 2026: Germany 3.3%, France 3.4%, Italy 4.1%, Spain 5.0%.[1]
Is Bulgaria in the euro area inflation figure?
Yes. Bulgaria joined on 1 January 2026, and euro area data from January 2026 cover 21 countries (EA21).[1]
When is the full September 2026 HICP published?
Eurostat schedules the full September data for 16 October 2026.[1]
Official links
- Official Eurostat — Euro indicators