ECB Account of the September 2026 Meeting — All Members Backed 25bp Hike to 2.50%; Inflation Risks Seen to the Upside

As of 9 October 2026 (KST); account of the ECB Governing Council's monetary policy meeting of 9–10 September 2026, published 8 October 2026. Primary source: ECB, "Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Berlin on Wednesday and Thursday, 9-10 September 2026" — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg261008~a10153d090.en.html^[1][2]

Comparison basis: previous is the 22–23 July 2026 meeting (decision of 23 July) and year ago is the rate in force in September 2025, from the ECB key interest rates table. Rates are shown as published, to two decimal places, and are not rounded further; percentage-point differences are this page's calculations.^[1][2][3][4]

In three lines 1. The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on 10 September 2026; the deposit facility rate went from 2.25% to 2.50% from 16 September. 2. The account says all members supported the increase and all viewed inflation risks as to the upside of the staff baseline (headline inflation 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028). 3. Members wanted communication to stay neutral, signalling neither a further step nor the last hike; the next policy meeting is 28–29 October 2026.^[1][2]

The Governing Council says it follows a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. The next account is due on 26 November 2026.^[1][2]

Decision vs account: the decision and monetary policy statement are published on the day of the meeting; the account, a summary of the discussion, is published later (for this meeting on 8 October 2026). Members: some Governing Council members do not hold a voting right in a given month under Article 10.2 of the ESCB Statute; the account lists them.^[1][2]

Three key rates: the deposit facility rate (through which the ECB steers its policy stance), the main refinancing operations rate and the marginal lending facility rate.^[4]

Baseline vs scenarios: staff projections have a baseline plus milder, adverse and severe scenarios for the energy shock.^[1]

Implied June 2026 headline projections, by this page's calculation from the stated revisions: 2.3% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028 (2026 unchanged at 3.0%).^[1]

On the decision: "all members supported the proposal made by Mr Lane to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points." It was also pointed out that "a deposit facility rate of 2.50% remained in the range of neutral interest rates estimated by staff".^[1]

On risks: "All members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as being to the upside relative to the staff baseline projections"; while members generally judged the baseline more plausible than the alternatives, "the view was also held that the adverse scenario was more likely than the baseline."^[1]

On communication: it "should remain neutral, neither suggesting that the current decision was another step in a predetermined tightening cycle nor that it was the last rate hike".^[1]

Markets had priced in 84 basis points of hikes by the end of 2027, compared with 64 at the time of the July meeting; survey-based expectations suggested the deposit facility rate would plateau at 2.50% after September. Oil was at USD 97 per barrel and gas at €73 per MWh.^[1]

The account cited Eurostat's flash estimate of HICP inflation at 3.3% in August, from 2.9% in July, with core inflation edging down to 2.4% from 2.5%, and an unemployment rate of 6.4% in July. Five-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.5% in August.^[1]

Market pricing vs surveys. Markets priced 84 basis points of hikes by end-2027, while surveys of analysts pointed to a plateau at 2.50% after September; the account attributes the gap partly to risk premia and earlier survey timing.^[1]

Inflation risks vs growth risks. Members saw inflation risks to the upside and growth risks to the downside, described as part of one integrated assessment of the energy shock.^[1]

Headline vs core. Headline HICP rose to 3.3% in August while core inflation edged down to 2.4%; staff project core inflation above 2% throughout the horizon (2.3% in 2028).^[1]

July vs September. In July the Council kept rates unchanged; by September members largely agreed the inflation outlook had deteriorated and all supported a 25 basis point increase.^[1][3]