US Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 — PCE Inflation 3.4% Year Over Year, Core 3.0% YoY, Saving Rate 4.1%
BEA estimates released Sept. 30, 2026: the PCE price index rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier; core rose 3.0% YoY. Spending rose 0.9% and income 0.2% MoM; saving rate 4.1%.
Key figures (August 2026, released September 30, 2026)
PCE price index: +0.3% month over month (MoM); +3.4% year over year (YoY). Core PCE (excluding food and energy): +0.2% MoM; +3.0% YoY.[1]
Personal income: +$66.6 billion (+0.2% MoM). Disposable personal income: +$68.6 billion (+0.3% MoM). Real disposable income: 0.0% MoM.[1]
Consumer spending (PCE, current dollars): +$190.8 billion (+0.9% MoM) — goods +$114.1 billion, services +$76.7 billion. Real PCE: +$92.8 billion (+0.6% MoM).[1]
Personal saving: $990.2 billion; saving rate 4.1% of disposable income. Next release: October 29, 2026 (September data).[1]
Terms: MoM compares August with July; YoY compares August 2026 with August 2025. All series are seasonally adjusted. Dollar amounts are at seasonally adjusted annual rates — the release's spending chart is labelled "Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates".[1]
Is $190.8 billion one month of extra spending?
No. BEA states changes in levels at seasonally adjusted annual rates. The release says PCE "increased $190.8 billion (0.9 percent)"; the percentage is the monthly change, while the dollar figure is the change in the annualized level.[1]
Dividing by 12 gives roughly $15.9 billion — an increase from July on a seasonally adjusted, non-annualized monthly basis (this page's calculation), not an observed, unadjusted spending increase. The same caution applies to the $66.6 billion income figure.[1]
By category (nominal spending changes, annual rates, from the release's chart): gasoline and other energy goods +$20.9 billion; recreation services –$10.3 billion, the only category shown declining. These are changes in dollars spent, not contributions to inflation.[1]
Inflation: headline and core
From the preceding month the PCE price index rose 0.3 percent, and 0.2 percent excluding food and energy. From a year earlier the index rose 3.4 percent and the core index 3.0 percent. Price changes by category are in BEA's Table 2.8.7, which this page did not check.[1]
Why the GDP report says 5.0% and this report says 3.4%
The same-day GDP release puts second-quarter PCE inflation at 5.0 percent (core 3.3 percent), measured from the first quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. BEA notes that "Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified."[2]
So 5.0% is a quarter-over-quarter change scaled to a year — about 1.2% at a quarterly rate by this page's calculation, 100 x [(1.050)^(1/4) - 1], an approximation from the rounded figure — whereas 3.4% compares August 2026 with August 2025. Quote the one that matches the question being asked.[1][2]
Income, saving and revisions
BEA says the income increase "primarily reflected increases in compensation and government social benefits", with private wages and salaries leading compensation and Medicare and social security benefits leading social benefits. After price adjustment, real PCE rose 0.6% while real disposable income was unchanged at the reported precision (0.0%).[1]
The release incorporates the annual update of the National Economic Accounts; revisions to personal income and outlays begin with January 2021. July figures in this release (income +0.3%, PCE +0.1%, PCE prices +0.1%) are the updated values, so they may differ from what was reported a month earlier.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
In August 2026 personal income rose $66.6 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate), disposable personal income (DPI) rose $68.6 billion (0.3 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose $190.8 billion (0.9 percent), all month over month.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The PCE price index rose 0.3 percent from July and 3.4 percent from August 2025; excluding food and energy it rose 0.2 percent from July and 3.0 percent from a year earlier.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Real PCE rose $92.8 billion (0.6 percent) in August, while real DPI was unchanged at the reported precision (0.0 percent). Personal saving was $990.2 billion and the personal saving rate was 4.1 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
BEA's chart of August spending changes by category is labelled in billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates; the $190.8 billion PCE increase comprised $114.1 billion on goods and $76.7 billion on services.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The release presents monthly results from the annual update of the National Economic Accounts; revisions to personal income and outlays begin with January 2021. The September 2026 report is scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
In BEA's third estimate of second-quarter 2026 GDP, the PCE price index rose 5.0 percent and the core PCE price index 3.3 percent (change from the first quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rates); BEA displays quarterly percent changes at annual rates unless otherwise specified.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Because the dollar changes are at seasonally adjusted annual rates, dividing the $190.8 billion rise in PCE by 12 gives an increase of roughly $15.9 billion from July on a seasonally adjusted, non-annualized monthly basis (190.8 / 12). This is not an observed, unadjusted spending increase; the same caution applies to the $66.6 billion income figure.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the release
Headline PCE inflation (3.4% year over year) ran 0.4 percentage point above core PCE inflation (3.0%) in August.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the release
The 5.0% second-quarter PCE inflation figure in the GDP report is a quarter-over-quarter change expressed at an annual rate. By this page's calculation, 100 x [(1 + 0.050)^(1/4) - 1] gives about 1.2% at a quarterly rate, an approximation back-calculated from the rounded 5.0%. The 3.4% August figure is a 12-month change. The two numbers measure different periods and are not contradictory.[1][2] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of the two BEA releases
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- The pre-revision July figures and the size of the annual-update revisions month by month
- Price changes by PCE category in August
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 09:50
- Body characters
- 3,073
- Sources
- 2 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/05/2026, 09:43
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/05/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/05/2026 | First version. Read the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release and the Q2 third-estimate GDP release in full; every quotation and figure was machine-matched against the release text. | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Independent pre-publication review (ChatGPT) against the sources; findings confirmed by the source text were applied. | Updated |
Frequently asked
What was PCE inflation in August 2026?
The PCE price index rose 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.3% from July. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 3.0% year over year and 0.2% month over month.[1]
What was core PCE inflation for August 2026?
3.0% year over year and 0.2% from July.[1]
Did Americans spend $190.8 billion more in August 2026?
That figure is a change in the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Divided by 12 it is roughly $15.9 billion on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis (this page's calculation), not an observed unadjusted amount; the monthly percentage rise was 0.9%.[1]
What is the US personal saving rate for August 2026?
4.1% of disposable personal income, with personal saving of $990.2 billion.[1]
Why does the GDP report show PCE inflation of 5.0%?
That is the second-quarter change from the first quarter at an annual rate. The August 3.4% is a 12-month change, so the two are not directly comparable.[1][2]
Were earlier months revised?
Yes. The release includes the annual update; revisions to personal income and outlays begin with January 2021.[1]
When is the next PCE report?
Personal Income and Outlays for September 2026 is scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[1]