US GDP, Q2 2026 (Second Estimate) — 1.5% Annual Rate, Unchanged From the Advance Estimate; Third Estimate Due September 30
BEA's second estimate (Aug. 26) puts Q2 2026 real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized, unchanged from the advance estimate and below Q1's 2.1%. Upward consumer-spending revisions were offset by imports.
★★The headline: 1.5%, and it did not move
BEA's second estimate, released **August 26, 2026**, says real GDP **"increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent"** in April-June 2026 — **"the same rate as in the advance estimate"** of July 30. The first quarter was **2.1 percent**, so Q2 is a slowdown from Q1 even though the number itself was not revised.[1][2][3]
★**"Unchanged" hides offsetting revisions.** BEA says **"an upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports."** Services spending — health care in particular — was revised up; goods and energy down. Because imports subtract from GDP, more spending that leaked to imports left the total where it was.[1]
★What drove growth, in BEA's words
**"Increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending."** Imports increased. ★**That is BEA's decomposition; this page does not add contributions in percentage points because the detailed table was not read for it.**[1]
Before the advance estimate, the consensus expectation cited by FOX Business was **2.1 percent**, so the quarter came in below forecasts. One analyst quoted there attributed the softness to **"a drag from rising imports and falling inventories that won't be sustained for long"** — ★**a single analyst's view, not a finding.**[3]
★Prices and profits in the same release
The release also reports **corporate profits from current production up $400.9 billion** in Q2, after **$74.4 billion** in Q1 — the second estimate is the first look at quarterly profits. Price indexes: **gross domestic purchases 5.8 percent, PCE 5.3 percent, core PCE 3.6 percent** (annual rates for the quarter). ★**These are quarter-on-quarter annualized rates from the GDP accounts, not the monthly PCE inflation figures**, and they come from this one release.[1]
★★What changes on September 30
The **third estimate is scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.** Third estimates incorporate more complete source data and can move the headline by a few tenths in either direction. ★**Until then, 1.5 percent is the operative figure**; this page will be updated if the third estimate differs.[1][2]
★What this page could not establish
**Contributions to growth in percentage points, the level of real GDP in chained dollars, and the annual revision context** were not taken from the tables. **Two of the three sources are BEA itself**; the third (FOX Business) reports on the advance estimate, not the second.[1][2][3]
Verified facts
Cross-checked against 2+ independent sourcesThis section contains facts cross-checked against multiple sources.
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 according to BEA's second estimate, the same rate as in the advance estimate.[1][2] 2 sources
Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026.[1][2][3] 3 sources
The advance estimate for Q2 2026 was released on July 30, 2026 and also showed 1.5 percent growth.[1][3] 2 sources
The third estimate for Q2 2026 is scheduled for September 30, 2026.[1][2] 2 sources
Reported, not confirmed
Not cross-checked — do not read as factFrom here on: claims and speculation that are not cross-checked.
BEA says the increase reflected "increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending", with imports (a subtraction) increasing, and that "an upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports".[1] single-source ×1 · BEA second-estimate release
Corporate profits from current production increased $400.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $74.4 billion in the first quarter.[1] single-source ×1 · BEA second-estimate release (single source)
Price indexes in the second estimate: gross domestic purchases prices 5.8 percent, PCE price index 5.3 percent, PCE excluding food and energy 3.6 percent; current-dollar GDP growth was revised from 7.9 to 8.0 percent.[1] single-source ×1 · BEA second-estimate release (single source)
Economists surveyed ahead of the advance estimate had expected growth of 2.1 percent, so the 1.5 percent reading was below consensus.[3] single-source ×1 · FOX Business report on the advance estimate
Timeline
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 09/20/2026, 02:00
- Tokens
- 9,000
- Sources
- 3 sources adopted
- Model
- claude-opus-5 (analysis session, source re-check)
- Time
- 09/20/2026, 02:00
- Tokens
- 2,000
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (2)
| 09/20/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 09/20/2026 | First authored | Updated |
Frequently asked
What was US GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026?
1.5 percent at an annual rate, per BEA's second estimate of August 26, 2026 — unchanged from the advance estimate.[1][2]
Why was the estimate unchanged if consumer spending was revised up?
Because imports were also revised up, and imports subtract from GDP. BEA says the two revisions partly offset each other.[1]
When is the next GDP release?
The third estimate for Q2 2026 is scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[1][2]
What did corporate profits do in Q2 2026?
Profits from current production rose $400.9 billion, after a $74.4 billion rise in Q1, according to the same BEA release.[1]