US GDP, Q2 2026 — Second Estimate (August 26): 1.5% Annual Rate, Later Revised to 2.2% in the Third Estimate
BEA's second estimate (August 26, 2026) put Q2 2026 real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized, the same as the advance estimate. The September 30 third estimate revised it to 2.2%.
Update: BEA's third estimate (September 30, 2026)
The second-estimate figure on this page was later revised. BEA's third estimate, released September 30, 2026, states that "Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent" in the second quarter, "an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point", and "In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised)." On that basis Q2 (2.2 percent) was slower than Q1 (2.5 percent). The rest of this page describes the second estimate as published on August 26.[4]
The second estimate: 1.5%, the same as the advance estimate
BEA's second estimate, released August 26, 2026, said real GDP "increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent" in April-June 2026, and that it "increased at the same rate as in the advance estimate" of July 30. BEA's technical note puts the actual change as "a downward revision of less than 0.1 percentage point". The first quarter was then estimated at 2.1 percent, so on the second-estimate figures Q2 was a slowdown from Q1.[1][3]
An unchanged headline can hide offsetting revisions. BEA says "An upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports." Imports are subtracted in calculating GDP, so according to BEA the upward revision to spending was partly offset in the total.[1]
What drove growth, in BEA's words
The contributors were "increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending". Imports increased. That is BEA's decomposition; this page does not add contributions in percentage points because the detailed table was not read for it.[1]
Before the advance estimate, economists polled by LSEG expected 2.1 percent, according to FOX Business, so the quarter came in below that estimate. Michael Pearce of Oxford Economics, quoted there, attributed the softness to "a drag from rising imports and falling inventories that won't be sustained for long" — one analyst's view, not a finding.[3]
Prices and profits in the same release
The second-estimate release also reported corporate profits from current production up $400.9 billion in Q2, after $74.4 billion in Q1 — the second estimate is the first look at quarterly profits. Price indexes: gross domestic purchases 5.8 percent, PCE 5.3 percent, core PCE 3.6 percent (annual rates for the quarter). These are quarter-on-quarter annualized rates from the GDP accounts, not the monthly PCE inflation figures, and they come from this one release.[1]
The third estimate revised the Q2 increase in corporate profits from current production to $384.0 billion.[4]
The third estimate (September 30) and the next release
The third estimate was released on September 30, 2026, and revised Q2 growth from 1.5 percent to 2.2 percent. BEA's next GDP release after it was scheduled for October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[4]
What this page could not establish
Contributions to growth in percentage points, the level of real GDP in chained dollars, and the annual revision context were not taken from the tables. Three of the four sources cited over time are BEA's own releases (the second and third estimates; a BEA data page used earlier was a rolling page and is no longer cited); FOX Business reports on the advance estimate.[1][3][4]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
In its second estimate, released August 26, 2026, BEA reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the same rate as in the advance estimate, and that real GDP had increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter (as estimated at that time).[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The advance estimate for Q2 2026, released July 30, 2026, also showed 1.5 percent growth.[1][3] 2 sources · independent
BEA's third estimate, released September 30, 2026, put Q2 2026 real GDP growth at 2.2 percent, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point, and revised first-quarter growth to 2.5 percent.[4] 1 source · authoritative record
BEA's next GDP release after the third estimate was scheduled for October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[4] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
BEA says the increase reflected "increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending", with imports (a subtraction) increasing, and that "An upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports".[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · BEA second-estimate release
In the second estimate, corporate profits from current production increased $400.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $74.4 billion in the first quarter. The third estimate revised the Q2 increase to $384.0 billion.[1][4] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · BEA second- and third-estimate releases
Price indexes in the second estimate: gross domestic purchases prices 5.8 percent, PCE price index 5.3 percent, PCE excluding food and energy 3.6 percent; current-dollar GDP growth was revised from 7.9 to 8.0 percent.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · BEA second-estimate release (single source)
Economists polled by LSEG had expected advance-estimate growth of 2.1 percent, so the 1.5 percent reading was below that estimate.[3] single-source ×1 · FOX Business report on the advance estimate
Timeline
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 09/20/2026, 02:00
- Body characters
- 2,940
- Sources
- 3 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/09/2026, 01:00
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (4)
| 09/20/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 09/20/2026 | First authored | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Added BEA's September 30 third estimate (Q2 revised to a 2.2% annual rate; Q1 to 2.5%) at the top; the second-estimate figures below are kept as published. | Updated |
| 10/09/2026 | Revised after independent review: rewritten as a record of the second estimate with the third-estimate result and the next release date, rolling source replaced by dated releases. | Updated |
Corrections
| 10/09/2026 | The title, summary, timeline and FAQ still described the September 30 third estimate as upcoming and called 1.5 percent the operative figure; they now say the third estimate was released on September 30 with 2.2 percent, and give BEA's next scheduled GDP release (October 29). The truncated summary was rewritten. Facts now say the 2.1 percent first-quarter figure and the profit figures were second-estimate values, and the citation to BEA's rolling GDP data page was replaced with the dated third-estimate release. The explanation that spending "leaked to imports" was narrowed to BEA's statement that the revisions partly offset, and "did not move" now notes BEA's "less than 0.1 percentage point" revision. The consensus figure is attributed to economists polled by LSEG and the analyst quote to Michael Pearce. The source count was corrected and the unsupported "few tenths" range statement was removed. | Applied |
Frequently asked
What was US GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026?
BEA's second estimate of August 26, 2026 put it at 1.5 percent at an annual rate, unchanged from the advance estimate. The third estimate of September 30, 2026 revised it to 2.2 percent.[1][4]
How does Q2 compare with Q1 2026?
At the time of the second estimate, Q1 was estimated at 2.1 percent, so Q2's 1.5 percent was a slowdown. In the third estimate, Q1 was revised to 2.5 percent and Q2 to 2.2 percent.[1][4]
Why was the second estimate unchanged if consumer spending was revised up?
BEA says the upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are subtracted in calculating GDP.[1]
When was the third estimate, and what came next?
The third estimate was released on September 30, 2026 (2.2 percent). BEA scheduled its next GDP release for October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.[4]