How to Read the USDA July Cattle Report — U.S. Cattle Inventory by Class and the Calf Crop
USDA Cattle (July 2026), U.S. inventory on July 1, 2026: 94.2 million head of all cattle and calves (slightly above a year earlier), beef cows 28.5 million (-1%); 2026 calf crop 32.5 million (-2%).
Key figures (Cattle, July 24, 2026 report)
As of 1 November 2026, 00:34 KST; most recently published report: Cattle, released July 24, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with U.S. cattle inventory by class on July 1, 2026 and the expected 2026 calf crop. The NASS July 2026 calendar lists the release at 3:00 pm ET; the publication page describes the report as biannual and showed no next date when checked. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795988/catl0726.txt[1][2][3]
| Indicator (United States, 1,000 head) | Previous (July 1, 2025, as printed in the July 2026 report) | Current (July 1, 2026) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cattle and calves | 94,000.0 | 94,200.0 | +0.2% (this page's calculation) | same comparison (July 1 inventories are compared only with July 1, 2025); published ratio: 100 percent of previous year (whole-number ratio of levels) | levels and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % change: this page's calculation |
| Beef cows | 28,650.0 | 28,450.0 | 99 percent (published); -0.7% (calculated) | same comparison (July 1 inventories are compared only with July 1, 2025) | levels and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % change: this page's calculation |
| Milk cows | 9,450.0 | 9,650.0 | 102 percent (published); +2.1% (calculated) | same comparison (July 1 inventories are compared only with July 1, 2025) | levels and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % change: this page's calculation |
| Heifers for beef cow replacement | 3,700.0 | 3,800.0 | 103 percent (published); +2.7% (calculated) | same comparison (July 1 inventories are compared only with July 1, 2025) | levels and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % change: this page's calculation |
| Cattle on feed | 13,000.0 | 13,200.0 | 102 percent (published); +1.5% (calculated) | same comparison (July 1 inventories are compared only with July 1, 2025) | levels and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % change: this page's calculation |
| Calf crop (annual total, not a July 1 inventory) | 32,995.6 (2025 annual) | 32,500.0 (2026 expected annual) | 98 percent (published); -1.5% (calculated) | same comparison: 2026 expected annual calf crop vs 2025 annual | levels and percent of previous year: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % change: this page's calculation |
Comparison basis: levels are as published in thousand head; the July 2025 values are those printed in the July 2026 report, which NASS says are subject to revision. The report's comparisons are whole-number percent-of-previous-year ratios; this page's percentage changes are calculated from the levels and rounded to one decimal. Because the July report compares inventories only with July 1 a year earlier, the previous and year-ago columns describe the same comparison; the calf crop row instead compares the 2026 expected annual total with the 2025 annual total. A published ratio such as 100 percent is a whole-number ratio of levels, so it is consistent with a small calculated rise. The report, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.[1]
In three lines
1. The July NASS report gives the U.S. cattle inventory by class on July 1 and the expected calf crop for the year, at national level.
2. On July 1, 2026, all cattle and calves totaled 94.2 million head, slightly above a year earlier; beef cows were 28.5 million, down 1%.
3. The 2026 calf crop is expected at 32.5 million head, down 2% from 2025.[1]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"All cattle and calves in the United States on July 1, 2026 totaled 94.2 million head, slightly above the 94.0 million head on July 1, 2025." "All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million head, unchanged from the 38.1 million head on July 1, 2025." "Beef cows, at 28.5 million head, are down 1 percent from a year ago." "Milk cows, at 9.65 million head, are up 2 percent from previous year." "Beef replacement heifers, at 3.80 million head, are up 3 percent from a year ago."[1]
"Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.2 million head on July 1, 2026, up 2 percent from previous year." "The 2026 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 32.5 million head, down 2 percent from last year." "Calves born during the first half of 2026 are estimated at 23.9 million head, down 2 percent from the first half of 2025."[1]
How the count is made. "A probability list frame survey with a sample of approximately 17,400 producers and feedlots was conducted." "These operations were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, internet, and face-to-face personal interviews and 66 percent of the reports were usable." An additional sample covered producers not found on the list frame. "The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year."[1]
Reading in pairs
Rounded levels vs small changes. "Class estimates are rounded to the nearest 100,000 head with the exception of beef cows, milk cows, beef heifers, and milk heifers which are rounded to the nearest 50,000 head." The headline rise in all cattle and calves, from 94.0 to 94.2 million head, is 200,000 head (+0.2%, this page's calculation), which NASS describes as slightly above.[1]
Level error vs change. "This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 94.2 million head by more than 0.5 percent." "Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent." The root mean square error (0.5% for all cattle, 1.0% for the calf crop) describes how first estimates have differed from later estimates over 10 years; it is not a test of whether the 0.2% year-ago rise is significant.[1]
Direction of past revisions. "During this period, the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 1 time and has been above the latest estimate 9 times." "This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory."[1]
July vs January. "Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made." The July report is national only; the publication page describes the series as including state and size-group estimates, which this July report does not contain. The report does not explain why beef cows declined.[1][2]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
All U.S. cattle and calves totaled 94.2 million head on July 1, 2026, slightly above the 94.0 million on July 1, 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. beef cows numbered 28.5 million head on July 1, 2026, down 1 percent from a year earlier.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. milk cows numbered 9.65 million head on July 1, 2026, up 2 percent from a year earlier.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The 2026 U.S. calf crop is expected to be 32.5 million head, down 2 percent from 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS surveyed approximately 17,400 producers and feedlots for the July 1, 2026 cattle estimates, and 66 percent of reports were usable.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
All U.S. cattle and calves rose by 200,000 head (0.2%) from July 1, 2025 to July 1, 2026.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the July 24 report
U.S. beef cows fell 0.7% and milk cows rose 2.1% from July 1, 2025 to July 1, 2026.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the July 24 report
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why did beef cow numbers fall while milk cows rose?
- How much will the July 1, 2026 figures change in the January report?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 11/01/2026, 00:36
- Body characters
- 6,615
- Sources
- 3 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 11/01/2026, 00:54
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (4)
| 11/01/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 11/01/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Cattle text release of July 24, 2026, including the inventory and calf crop tables, methodology and reliability table, plus the publication page and the NASS July 2026 release calendar; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 11/01/2026 | Revised after review: the calf crop row is labeled as 2025 annual and 2026 expected annual totals rather than July 1 inventories; the all-cattle change column shows only this page's calculation, with the published whole-number ratio noted separately and explained in the FAQ; the July-versus-January paragraph cites both the report and the publication page. | Updated |
| 11/01/2026 | Wording revision: the additional list-frame sample is paraphrased as a sample of producers; no numbers changed. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How many cattle were in the United States on July 1, 2026?
94.2 million head of all cattle and calves (94,200.0 thousand), up 0.2% from July 1, 2025 by this page's calculation, according to the NASS report of July 24, 2026. NASS publishes the ratio as 100 percent, a whole-number ratio of levels, which is consistent with a small rise.[1]
How many U.S. beef cows were there on July 1, 2026?
28.5 million head (28,450.0 thousand), down 1% from a year earlier; beef cow estimates are rounded to the nearest 50,000 head.[1]
What is the expected 2026 U.S. calf crop in the July 2026 Cattle report?
32.5 million head, down 2% from 2025: 23.9 million born in the first half and 8.60 million expected in the second half.[1]
Is the 0.2% rise in U.S. cattle numbers to July 1, 2026 statistically significant?
The report does not test it: its 0.5% root mean square error measures past differences between first and later estimates of the level, not the significance of a change.[1]
How was the July 1, 2026 U.S. cattle inventory surveyed?
About 17,400 producers and feedlots in a probability list frame sample were contacted in the first half of July, with 66% of reports usable, plus a sample of producers not on the list.[1]
Could the July 1, 2026 U.S. cattle estimates be revised?
Yes: previous-year estimates are revised when current estimates are made and when the January 1 inventory is estimated, primarily based on slaughter, trade and survey data.[1]