How to Read the USDA Milk Production Report — 24 States vs U.S., Milk per Cow and Revisions
USDA milk report, Oct. 22, 2026: 24-state September output 18.7 billion lb, up 2.7%; U.S. Q3 59.5 billion lb, up 2.3%; August 24-state estimate revised up 0.7% from the previous preliminary estimate.
Key figures (Milk Production, October 2026)
As of 29 October 2026 (KST); most recently published report: Milk Production, released October 22, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with September 2026 monthly data and July-September quarterly data. The NASS reports-by-date calendar for October 2026 lists the October 22 Milk Production release at 3:00 pm ET; the publication page lists the next releases on November 20 and December 22, 2026, at 3:00 PM without a time zone. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796118/mkpr1026.txt[1][2][3]
| Indicator (milk cows include dry cows; production excludes milk sucked by calves) | Previous (August 2026, revised; quarter: April-June) | Current (September 2026, preliminary; quarter: July-September) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago (2025) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milk production, 24 major states (million pounds) | 19,304 | 18,724 | -580 (this page's subtraction) | +2.7% (published) from 18,230 | levels and % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Milk cows, 24 major states (1,000 head) | 9,280 | 9,304 | +24 (published as 24,000 head) | +162 (published as 162,000 head) from 9,142 | levels and % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Milk per cow, 24 major states (pounds) | 2,080 | 2,012 | -68 (this page's subtraction) | +18 (published) from 1,994 | levels and % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Milk production, United States (million pounds) | 20,039 | 19,443 | -596 (this page's subtraction) | +2.6% (published) from 18,942 | levels and % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Milk cows, United States (1,000 head) | 9,717 | 9,743 | +26 (this page's subtraction) | +169 (this page's subtraction) from 9,574 | levels and % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Milk production, United States, quarter (million pounds) | 60,317 | 59,529 | -788 (this page's subtraction) | +2.3% (published) from 58,208 | levels and % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
Comparison basis: levels are as published in the report's tables; percentage changes from 2025 are the report's published figures, and the differences from the previous month and the U.S. cow change from 2025 are this page's subtraction. The text gives the same numbers rounded (for example 18.7 billion pounds), and table notes say figures may not add due to rounding. The two footnotes apply throughout: milk cows "Includes dry cows." "Excludes heifers not yet fresh." Milk production "Excludes milk sucked by calves." The release, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.[1]
In three lines
1. The monthly NASS report estimates milk cows, milk per cow and milk production for 24 major states each month and for the United States by month and quarter.
2. As published on October 22, 2026, September 2026 production in the 24 major states was 18.7 billion pounds, up 2.7% from September 2025, and U.S. July-September production 59.5 billion pounds, up 2.3%.
3. The next reports are listed for November 20 and December 22, 2026.[1][2]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"Milk production in the 24 major States during September totaled 18.7 billion pounds, up 2.7 percent from September 2025." "Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,012 pounds for September, 18 pounds above September 2025." "The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.30 million head, 162,000 head more than September 2025, and 24,000 head more than August 2026." "Milk production in the United States during the July - September quarter totaled 59.5 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from the July - September quarter last year."[1]
How it is estimated. "Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey." "Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production."[1]
Reading in pairs
24 states vs United States. The headline uses the 24 major states, 18,724 million pounds in September 2026, while the report's U.S. monthly table estimates 19,443 million pounds; the 24 states are 96.3% of the U.S. figure for that month (this page's calculation). The year-over-year changes differ slightly as well: 2.7% for the 24 states and 2.6% for the United States.[1]
Months vs quarter. The U.S. monthly estimates for July (20,047), August (20,039) and September (19,443 million pounds) add up to the quarterly 59,529 million pounds (this page's arithmetic). The quarter covers all states, including those published only quarterly.[1]
Preliminary vs revised. "August revised production, at 19.3 billion pounds, was up 2.5 percent from August 2025." "The August revision represented an increase of 132 million pounds or 0.7 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate." "Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States." "Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data."[1]
Month-to-month vs year-over-year. September 2026 per-cow output (2,012 pounds) was below August (2,080) but 18 pounds above September 2025; the report's headline compares each month with the same month a year earlier, not with the previous month. By state, September production rose 14.7% in Kansas and fell 4.9% in Arizona from a year earlier; the report does not give reasons.[1]
Reliability. NASS gives a root mean square error of 0.1 percent for quarterly milk production over the past 20 quarters, against the current 59.5 billion pounds. "Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent."[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
Milk production in the 24 major U.S. states totaled 18.7 billion pounds in September 2026, up 2.7 percent from September 2025, according to NASS.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. milk production in July-September 2026 totaled 59.5 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from a year earlier, with an average of 9.72 million milk cows.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
There were 9.30 million milk cows in the 24 major states in September 2026, 162,000 more than a year earlier, producing an average of 2,012 pounds per cow.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS revised August 2026 production in the 24 major states up by 132 million pounds, or 0.7 percent, to 19.3 billion pounds.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The USDA publication page lists the next Milk Production releases on November 20 and December 22, 2026.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
U.S. monthly production estimates for July, August and September 2026 (20,047, 20,039 and 19,443 million pounds) add to the published quarterly total of 59,529 million pounds.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's arithmetic from the U.S. monthly and quarterly tables
The 24 major states produced 18,724 million pounds in September 2026, 96.3% of the 19,443 million pounds estimated for the United States.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the September tables
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why did September 2026 production rise 14.7% in Kansas from a year earlier?
- How much will September 2026 be revised in the November report?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/29/2026, 14:52
- Body characters
- 6,004
- Sources
- 3 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/29/2026, 14:59
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/29/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/29/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Milk Production text release of October 22, 2026, including the U.S., 24-state, monthly, quarterly and state tables, methodology, revision policy and reliability table, plus the publication page and the NASS October 2026 release calendar; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 10/29/2026 | Revised after review: the summary says August's 24-state estimate was revised up 0.7% from the previous preliminary estimate, the revision FAQ says figures are subject to revision the following month and in February, and the reliability FAQ states that the measure is based on differences between first and final estimates over the past 20 quarters. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How much milk did the 24 major U.S. dairy states produce in September 2026?
18.7 billion pounds (18,724 million), up 2.7% from September 2025, according to the NASS report of October 22, 2026.[1]
How much milk did the United States produce in July-September 2026?
59.5 billion pounds, up 2.3% from July-September 2025, with an average of 9.72 million milk cows during the quarter.[1]
Was U.S. 24-state milk production for August 2026 revised?
Yes: the October 22, 2026 report revised August up by 132 million pounds, or 0.7%, to 19.3 billion pounds; figures are subject to revision the following month and in February.[1]
Do NASS milk cow numbers for September 2026 include dry cows?
Yes: the 9.30 million milk cows in the 24 major states in September 2026 include dry cows and exclude heifers not yet fresh; production excludes milk sucked by calves.[1]
Why does the September 2026 24-state milk figure differ from the U.S. figure?
The 24 major states (18,724 million pounds in September 2026) are a subset; the report's U.S. monthly estimate was 19,443 million pounds, so the 24 states made up 96.3% (this page's calculation).[1]
How reliable is the July-September 2026 U.S. milk production estimate?
Based on differences between first and final estimates over the past 20 quarters, NASS says the root mean square error is 0.1 percent and that chances are 9 out of 10 that the final figure will differ from 59.5 billion pounds by no more than 0.2 percent.[1]