How to Read the USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report — Inventory, Pig Crop, Farrowing Intentions and Revisions
USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs of September 24, 2026: 74.3 million head on September 1, down 2% from 2025; June-August pig crop 34.5 million, down 2%; next report December 23.
Key figures (Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, September 2026)
As of 29 October 2026 (KST); most recently published report: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, released September 24, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with inventory as of September 1, 2026 and the June-August 2026 pig crop. The NASS reports-by-date calendar for September 2026 lists the September 24 Hogs and Pigs release at 3:00 pm ET; the publication page lists the next release on December 23, 2026, at 3:00 PM without a time zone. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796073/hgpg0926.txt[1][2][3]
| Indicator (United States, 1,000 head unless noted) | Previous (June 1, 2026; quarter: March-May 2026) | Current (September 1, 2026; quarter: June-August 2026) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago (2025) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All hogs and pigs (inventory) | 73,130 | 74,302 | +1,172 (text: up 2 percent) | -1,136 from 75,438; published 98% | levels and published percentages: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Kept for breeding (inventory) | 5,880 | 5,875 | -5 (text: down slightly) | -61 from 5,936; published 99% | levels and published percentages: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Market hogs (inventory) | 67,250 | 68,427 | +1,177 (text: up 2 percent) | -1,075 from 69,502; published 98% | levels and published percentages: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Pig crop (quarter) | 33,379 | 34,508 | +1,129 (this page's subtraction) | -536 from 35,044; published 98% | levels and published percentages: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Sows farrowing (quarter) | 2,811 | 2,886 | +75 (this page's subtraction) | -79 from 2,965; published 97% | levels and published percentages: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
| Pigs per litter (number) | 11.87 | 11.96 | +0.09 (this page's subtraction) | +0.14 from 11.82; published 101% | levels and published percentages: USDA NASS primary statistical record (report tables); level differences: this page's subtraction |
Comparison basis: levels are as published in thousands of head; the year-ago percentages are the report's own whole-number 2026-as-percent-of-2025 figures, and the differences from the previous quarter are this page's subtraction (the release text describes some of them in words). The text gives the same numbers rounded to millions, and the tables note that figures may not add due to rounding. The release, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.[1]
In three lines
1. The quarterly NASS report estimates the U.S. hog inventory by class and weight, the pig crop, sows farrowing, pigs per litter and farrowing intentions.
2. As published on September 24, 2026, the September 1, 2026 inventory was 74.3 million head, down 2% from a year earlier and up 2% from June 1, and the June-August pig crop was 34.5 million head, down 2%.
3. The next report is listed for December 23, 2026.[1][2]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"Breeding inventory, at 5.87 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter." "Market hog inventory, at 68.4 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, but up 2 percent from last quarter." "The June-August 2026 pig crop, at 34.5 million head, was down 2 percent from 2025." "Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.89 million head, down 3 percent from 2025." "The average pigs saved per litter was 11.96 for the June-August period, compared to 11.82 last year."[1]
Pig crop defined. The June-August pig crop is the "Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1 or had been sold."[1]
Contracts. "The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 56 percent of the total United States hog inventory, up 4 percent from the previous year."[1]
How it is estimated. "A random sample of 4,258 United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates." "During the first half of September 2026, data were collected from about 2,800 operations." "The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths."[1]
Reading in pairs
Sows × litter size vs published pig crop. 2,886 thousand sows farrowing times 11.96 pigs per litter is about 34,517 thousand, against the published June-August pig crop of 34,508 thousand (this page's arithmetic): the product of the rounded displayed figures does not exactly match the reported estimate, and the report does not show how the pig crop is derived from them.[1]
Intentions vs actual farrowings. Producers intend 2,855 thousand farrowings in September-November 2026, 52 thousand (2%) below the actual 2,907 thousand a year earlier. These are second intentions: the June 25, 2026 report had put September-November 2026 intentions at 2,891 thousand. Intentions are not outcomes: NASS's reliability table gives a root mean square error of 2.1 percent for second intentions.[1][4]
First estimate vs revisions. "The revision made to the June 2026 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.7 percent." "A net revision of 1.0 percent was made to the March 2026 all hogs and pigs inventory." "Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made." For the all-hogs inventory, NASS gives a root mean square error of 1.2 percent over the past 20 quarters: "Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent."[1]
This quarter vs the records. Pigs per litter of 11.96 for June-August 2026 is the record for that quarter in the report's records table, while the September 1 inventory of 74,302 thousand is below the September record of 78,963 thousand set in 2019. The report does not explain the changes.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs was 74.3 million head on September 1, 2026, down 2 percent from September 1, 2025 and up 2 percent from June 1, 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The June-August 2026 U.S. pig crop was 34.5 million head, down 2 percent from 2025, with 2.89 million sows farrowing and an average of 11.96 pigs saved per litter.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. hog producers intend 2.85 million sows to farrow in September-November 2026, down 2 percent from a year earlier, and 2.80 million in December 2026-February 2027, up 2 percent.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS revised the June 2026 all hogs and pigs inventory by 0.7 percent and the March 2026 inventory by a net 1.0 percent in the September 2026 report.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The USDA publication page lists the next Quarterly Hogs and Pigs release on December 23, 2026.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Sows farrowing in June-August 2026 (2,886 thousand) times pigs per litter (11.96) is about 34,517 thousand against the published pig crop of 34,508 thousand; the product of the rounded displayed figures does not exactly match the reported estimate.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's arithmetic from the U.S. pig crop table
The September 1, 2026 inventory of 74,302 thousand head is 1,136 thousand below September 1, 2025 and below the September record of 78,963 thousand set in 2019.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of the U.S. inventory and records tables
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why was the September 1, 2026 inventory 2 percent below a year earlier?
- Will September-November 2026 farrowings match intentions?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/29/2026, 14:53
- Body characters
- 5,993
- Sources
- 4 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/29/2026, 14:58
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/29/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/29/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs text release of September 24, 2026, including all U.S. and state inventory, weight-group and farrowing tables, methodology, revision policy, reliability and records tables, plus the publication page and the NASS September 2026 release calendar; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 10/29/2026 | Revised after review: the September-November 2026 farrowing intentions are identified as second intentions, with the June 25, 2026 report (first intentions of 2,891 thousand) added as a source and the 2.1 percent second-intentions error used throughout; the December 23 report is described as scheduled; the sows-times-litter check now says only that the product of the rounded displayed figures does not exactly match the reported estimate. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How many hogs and pigs were on U.S. farms on September 1, 2026?
74.3 million head (74,302 thousand), down 2% from September 1, 2025 and up 2% from June 1, 2026, according to the NASS report of September 24, 2026.[1]
What was the U.S. June-August 2026 pig crop?
34.5 million head, down 2% from 2025; 2.89 million sows farrowed, with a record 11.96 pigs saved per litter for that quarter.[1]
What are U.S. hog farrowing intentions for September-November 2026?
2.85 million sows in the September 24, 2026 report, down 2% from actual farrowings a year earlier; these are second intentions (the June 2026 report showed 2.89 million), and second intentions have a 20-quarter root mean square error of 2.1 percent, so they can differ from outcomes.[1][4]
Were earlier 2026 U.S. hog inventory estimates revised in the September 2026 report?
Yes: the June 2026 inventory was revised by 0.7 percent and the March 2026 inventory by a net 1.0 percent; estimates for the previous four quarters can be revised each quarter.[1]
What share of the U.S. hog inventory on September 1, 2026 was under contract?
56 percent: hogs owned by operations with over 5,000 head but raised by contractees, up 4 percent from the previous year.[1]
How reliable is the September 1, 2026 U.S. hog inventory estimate?
NASS gives a 20-quarter root mean square error of 1.2 percent; chances are 9 out of 10 that the final estimate will differ from 74.3 million head by no more than 2.1 percent.[1]
Official links
Sources
- [1] Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, released September 24, 2026 (USDA NASS, text release) primary
- [2] Hogs and Pigs publication page (USDA ESMIS, page as current on 2026-10-29) primary
- [3] NASS Reports by Date calendar, September 2026 primary
- [4] Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, released June 25, 2026 (USDA NASS, text release) primary