How to Read USDA ERS Agricultural Trade Multipliers — Output and Jobs Supported by U.S. Agricultural Exports

As of 7 November 2026, 01:58 KST (retrieved by this page at that time); latest edition on the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) page: 2024 Agricultural Trade Multipliers, for calendar-year 2024 exports. Dates differ by source: the main page shows Updated: 7/2/2026, the documentation page and the data file show 6/30/2026, the readme says the file was made available on June 30, 2026, and the glossary shows Updated: 1/10/2025. Primary source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/agricultural-trade-multipliers^[1][2][4]

Comparison basis: values are ERS's rounded figures from the page text; the cited pages do not give 2023 figures, so no year-on-year change is shown. The checks in the fifth column are this page's arithmetic on ERS's rounded numbers. The underlying data file is a spreadsheet-style CSV that this page has not tabulated.^[1][4]

In three lines

1. ERS's Agricultural Trade Multipliers estimate how much U.S. output and how many full-time-equivalent jobs are supported by agricultural exports.
2. For 2024, $177.2 billion of agricultural exports supported $192.0 billion of additional activity, $2.08 of output per $1 exported.
3. ERS puts the jobs supported at 1.04 million full-time equivalents, about 5,854 per $1 billion exported.^[1]

Jobs as full-time equivalents. "In 2024, U.S. agricultural exports supported 1.04 million jobs." "This number refers to full-time civilian jobs, as measured in full-time equivalents (FTEs)." The readme adds that ERS uses a ratio of 2,080 hours per year per FTE, so the 1.04 million is converted hours of work, not a count of people.^[1][4]

An input-output model, not a survey. The multipliers come from an open input-output model built on BEA's 2017 benchmark tables. ERS's documentation says the models assume the only limit on output is a lack of markets, and: "However, I/O-based models do not consider price changes in their equations." The glossary states: "Open model multipliers are best suited to describe what has already happened in an economy or the interrelatedness of sectors in a base period." In this page's methodological reading, the multipliers should not be read as a direct forecast of jobs lost if exports fell.^[2][3]

Limits ERS states. "Some limitations include that this multiplier analysis has a year lag and assumes the only limit on the output of an economy is a lack of markets for its production." "Annual estimates are provided for 2021 to present."^[2]

Biodiesel included. ERS counts biodiesel as an agricultural product here although the WTO definition does not. "Without biodiesel, in accordance with the WTO definition for agricultural products, U.S. agricultural exports instead totaled $176.4 billion in 2024." The $177.2 billion therefore includes about $0.8 billion that the WTO definition leaves out.^[1]

Farm vs nonfarm jobs. "Notably, the nonfarm sector benefited the most, generating around 607,800 jobs, while on the farm, agricultural exports supported 429,600 jobs." The two add to 1,037,400 (this page's sum), which ERS rounds to 1.04 million; 1,037,400 divided by $177.2 billion gives 5,854.4 jobs per billion, matching ERS's approximately 5,854.^[1]

Bulk vs meat exports. "Soybean and corn bulk exports were valued at $38.2 billion and supported an additional $34.0 billion in economic activity." "Bovine, chicken, and swine meat exports together had an export value of $21.1 billion and an additional $35.5 billion in economic activity supported." Per dollar exported, the additional activity is about $0.89 for soybeans and corn and $1.68 for the meat group, and jobs per $1 billion are about 4,699 and 7,787 (this page's calculations from ERS's rounded figures, using "Soybean and corn bulk exports alone supported about 179,500 jobs and bovine, chicken, and swine meat nonbulk exports supported 164,300 jobs."). The cited pages do not establish why the multipliers differ.^[1]

Supported vs added. "In 2024, U.S. agricultural exports valued at $177.2 billion had supported an additional $192.0 billion in economic activity, for a total of $369.2 billion in economic output." "This means that, on average, every $1 of U.S. agricultural products exported supported a total of $2.08 of domestic economic activity." The $2.08 counts the export value itself plus the additional activity; it is not $2.08 of extra activity per dollar.^[1]

Period. The estimates are for calendar-year 2024; the readme notes that the Year column in the data file is the year of the data, not the release year. The cited pages do not give a date for the next edition, so it is not established by these sources.^[1][4]

History. The page says questions about the previous 5 years of ATM releases should go to the authors, and the cited pages print no 2023 figures; this page therefore does not compare 2024 with earlier years.^[1]