How to Read the USDA Price Reactions After Crop Reports — Prior Close, Release-Day Close (Day After) and Week After

As of 5 November 2026, 01:33 KST (retrieved by this page at that time); most recently published report: Price Reactions After USDA Crop Reports, March 2026, from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), listed for March 11, 2026 on the NASS 2026 release-date list (the row for this report, then its dates), with reactions through the 2025 crop year. NASS lists the report as annual; the cited pages give no date for the next one. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795816/prrcan26.txt^[1][2][3]

Comparison basis: every value in the table is from [1], as published; prices are cash prices, not futures, and changes are the published differences in cents per bushel (points per pound for cotton). Prices retain the precision published by NASS (rounded as published): dollars per bushel to two decimal places for grains, and cents per pound to two decimal places for cotton. The cotton annual row for crop year 2025 is blank because, per the table note, its estimation period had not begun, so the January row is shown instead. This page adds no calculations to the table.^[1]

In three lines

1. This annual NASS report lists, for Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports since 1984, a cash price just before each release and the price a day and a week after.
2. At the close on the release day of the crop year 2025 annual estimates (the report's day-after price), the corn cash price was 24 cents lower and the soybean price 14 cents lower.
3. Over 1985 to 2025, corn prices rose the day after 87 Crop Production reports and fell after 95.^[1]

What is shown. "This annual report contains corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton price reactions to the USDA Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports starting from 1984-89 to the past year." "The prices in this report for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets as reported by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)." The prices are specific cash markets: Southern Iowa #2 yellow corn, the average price paid by processors at Southern Iowa points for soybeans, Kansas City #1 hard winter wheat, and the 7-market average for Upland cotton. "The price change is indicated by the difference between the prior closing price and the price for the day or week after each report." "Cotton price changes displayed in points per pound."^[1][2]

What it does not claim. "This report does not imply that NASS reports are solely responsible for changes to the price level for commodities referenced in the publication." "The price level for any commodity can potentially be affected by other information available to the market at that time but ultimately is determined by supply and demand."^[1]

Release times change the meaning of "prior closing price". Before May 1994 the reports came out at 3:00 p.m. ET, after markets closed, so the prior closing price is that day's close; from May 1994 they came out at 8:30 a.m. ET, so it is the previous day's close, and the day-after price is the close on the release day itself: "The "day after price" is the closing price on Tuesday since the United States markets were open after the report was released and the "week after price" is the following Monday's closing price." "Beginning in January 2013, the release time for publications referenced in this report was changed to 12:00 p.m. ET." NASS says that change did not affect the definitions.^[1]

Gaps. Two kinds of gap come from funding lapses. In October 2013 the October Crop Production report was cancelled: "Additionally, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News price reports were also cancelled." "As a result, no data is available for a price comparison for the 2013 Small Grain Annual Summary or the 2013 September Grain Stocks report." In 2025: "Due to the lapse in federal funding in October 2025, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2025 October Crop Production report was cancelled."^[1]

Up days vs down days. For corn and the Crop Production report over 1985 to 2025, the cash price rose the day after 87 reports (average +7.6 cents), did not change after 21 and fell after 95 (average -7.8 cents), 203 reports in all (this page's sum matches the published total). In this page's reading, the long-run counts show reactions in both directions rather than a usual direction.^[1]

Day after vs week after. Average moves are larger a week after than a day after (corn and Crop Production: +12.0 and -13.2 cents a week after, against +7.6 and -7.8 a day after). A week leaves more time for other information to reach the market, and NASS says the report does not imply that its reports alone move prices.^[1]

Two reports, one row of prices. In the corn tables, the crop year 2025 annual Crop Production row and the December Grain Stocks row show the same prices (4.24, 4.00 and 4.07). The NASS 2026 release-date list shows both the Crop Production annual summary and Grain Stocks on Monday, January 12, 2026, and the report says such releases have been at 12:00 p.m. ET since January 2013, so the two reports were released on the same day. The tables label that Grain Stocks row December, while the overview says the report is issued in January. A single price move therefore appears under both reports, and this page does not attribute it to either one.^[1]

Cash prices vs the national market. The prices come from particular cash markets reported by AMS, not from futures or a national average; in this page's reading, a reaction at Southern Iowa or Kansas City may partly reflect local conditions, and these figures do not establish how much.^[1]