How to Read the FAA Aerospace Forecast — Passengers, Fleets, General Aviation and Tower Workload
FAA forecast FY2026-2046 (projections, U.S. aviation): international passengers 268.0M (CY2025) to 479.8M in CY2046; commercial fleet 6,949 to 10,677 aircraft (Fleet section).
Key figures (FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2026-2046)
As of 9 November 2026, 00:34 KST (retrieved by this page at that time); latest listed on the agency page at retrieval: the FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2026-2046, from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Aviation Policy and Plans. Its sections carry the cover title Fiscal Years 2026–2046 and no publication date; the forecasts web page shows Last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026. All 2026-2046 values are projections. Primary source: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2026_FAA_Aerospace_Forecasts_FY2026-2046-2.pdf[1][2][4]
| Indicator (U.S. aviation activity; year basis as printed: FY for airlines and FAA workload, CY for general aviation and international passengers; the last row is an economic input assumption, not aviation activity) | Previous: base-year actual or estimate (year as printed) | Current: 2046 forecast (projected) | Change vs previous: FAA's stated average annual growth over the forecast period | Change vs year ago: not a year-on-year table; this column gives the 2026 forecast or 2026 growth (as printed) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International passengers to and from the U.S., all carriers (millions, CY) | 268.0 (CY2025) | 479.8 | 2.8% a year | 274.3 in CY2026 (+2.4%) | FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, section Total Passengers to/from the United States |
| U.S. commercial aircraft fleet (aircraft) | 6,949 (2025) | 10,677 | 2.1% a year | not printed | FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, section U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet |
| Active general aviation fleet (aircraft, CY) | 213,756 (2024) | 242,722 | 0.6% a year | not printed | FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, section General Aviation |
| General aviation hours flown (millions, CY) | 29.0 (2024) | 36.4 | 1.0% a year (25.5% in total) | not printed | FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, section General Aviation |
| Operations at FAA and contract towers (millions, FY) | 57.4 (2025, towered airports, Forecast Uncertainties section) | 71.3 | 1.0% a year from 58.6 million in 2026 | 58.6 in FY2026 | FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, sections FAA Operations and Forecast Uncertainties |
| Cargo revenue ton miles, U.S. air carriers (billions) | 48.1 (2025) | not printed | 2.8% a year (2026-2046) | +4.8% in 2026 | FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, section Cargo |
| Input assumption: refiners' acquisition cost of crude oil, S&P Global forecast cited by FAA (nominal dollars per barrel, FY) | about 69 (2025) | 108 | not stated | 57 in 2026 | S&P Global, cited in FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046, section Economic Environment |
Comparison basis: base-year values are FAA's printed actuals or estimates and 2046 values are projections, rounded as printed. FAA mixes year bases: airline traffic and FAA workload are by fiscal year, while general aviation and international passengers are by calendar year. Growth rates in the fourth column are FAA's; this page checked them against the printed endpoints.[2][4]
In three lines
1. The FAA's annual 20-year forecast projects U.S. airline traffic, fleets, general aviation, FAA workload, commercial space and drones for budgeting and planning.
2. International passengers to and from the U.S. are projected to rise from 268.0 million in CY2025 to 479.8 million in CY2046, and the commercial fleet from 6,949 to 10,677 aircraft.
3. The forecast excludes the economic effects of the Iran conflict, which FAA says began after the report was prepared.[2][4]
What the forecast measures
Method and assumptions. "The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driven by models built on forecasts of economic activity." The economic inputs are from S&P Global, attributed by FAA. "FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity."[4][5]
Year bases and definitions. "Since the survey collects data on a calendar year (CY) basis, the resulting GA forecasts are also produced by CY." "An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the survey year." Mainline carriers are defined by FAA as those flying mainly aircraft with 90 or more seats, and regionals as those flying mainly aircraft with 89 or fewer seats.[4]
What is not forecast. "Notably, FAA has suspended its student pilot forecast since 2018." FAA explains that a 2016 rule removed expiration dates from student pilot certificates, so the count (370,286 at the end of 2025) accumulates rather than tracking active training. Advanced Air Mobility is also left out of the general aviation forecast as too uncertain.[4]
Known exclusion. "As this conflict began after the preparation of this report, the resulting economic impacts are not included in the current forecast." FAA's uncertainties section adds that the effects so far are mainly higher fuel prices and that their size depends on the conflict's duration.[2][5]
Reading in pairs
System vs its parts. "System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.6 percent a year between 2025 and 2046." "Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.7 percent per year while International RPMs are forecast to grow slightly slower at 2.6 percent a year." The three rates are reported as printed; the source gives neither unrounded rates nor the component values needed to recompute the system rate, so the printed values alone do not establish an inconsistency.[2]
Two 2025 tower counts. The review of 2025 says: "Total operations in 2025 at FAA and contract towers increased by 1.4 percent compared to 2024, the fifth consecutive year of growth." The uncertainties section says: "Towered airports handled a total of 57.4 million operations in 2025." It adds an increase of 0.8 percent in operations at towered airports since FY 2024. The review's scope is operations at FAA and contract towers and the uncertainties section's is operations at towered airports; whether the two scopes are the same, and the reason the growth rates (1.4 and 0.8 percent) differ, are not established by the documents.[3][5]
Fixed-wing piston decline: two periods. The overview says the fixed-wing piston fleet will contract by nearly 2,000 aircraft, while the general aviation section says: "The largest segment of the fleet, fixed-wing piston aircraft, is projected to shrink by 2,544 units between 2024 and 2046, representing an average annual decline of 0.1 percent." The section's chart gives the fixed-wing piston fleet as 138,960 in 2024, 138,010 in 2026 and 136,416 in 2046, a decline of 2,544 from 2024 and 1,594 from 2026 (this page's calculations). The overview's nearly 2,000 is broadly consistent with the 2026 base, but FAA does not state that sentence's base year.[2][4]
International passengers add up. The CY2025 regional counts (Latin 107.0, Atlantic 95.2, Pacific 36.6 and Canada 29.2 million) sum to 268.0 million and the CY2046 forecasts to 479.8 million (this page's calculations). "Over the forecast horizon, total passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent, going from 268.0 million at the end of CY2025 to 479.8 million in CY2046." "Aggregate passenger volume across the four world regions is projected to grow 2.4 percent in CY2026, reaching a total of 274.3 million."[4]
Web page wording. The forecasts web page still describes the FY 2025-2045 forecast in its introduction while listing the FY 2026-2046 document and sections, as printed.[1][4]
Edition, dates and next forecast
Dates. Web page Last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026. The section PDFs show the cover title Fiscal Years 2026–2046 and no publication date; a footnote in the forecast section cites data accessed April 24, 2026. The page lists earlier editions back to FY 2018-2038.[1][4]
Next forecast. The page lists one edition per year back to FY 2018-2038; the date of the next edition is not established by these sources.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
FAA projects international passengers to and from the U.S. on all carriers to grow 2.8 percent a year, from 268.0 million in CY2025 to 479.8 million in CY2046.[4] 1 source · authoritative record
FAA projects the U.S. commercial aircraft fleet to grow from 6,949 aircraft in 2025 to 10,677 in 2046.[4] 1 source · authoritative record
FAA projects operations at FAA and contract towers to grow from 58.6 million in 2026 to 71.3 million in 2046.[4] 1 source · authoritative record
The active general aviation fleet was an estimated 213,756 aircraft in 2024 and is projected at 242,722 in 2046.[4] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
The system (2.6), domestic (2.7) and international (2.6 percent) RPM growth rates are printed without the unrounded rates or component values needed to recompute the system rate, so they do not by themselves establish an inconsistency.[2] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · inference from comparing FAA's overview growth rates
The review gives 1.4 percent growth in 2025 for operations at FAA and contract towers, and the uncertainties section 0.8 percent for operations at towered airports; whether the scopes match, and the reason for the difference, are not established.[3][5] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · inference from comparing two FAA sections
The printed average annual growth rates for international passengers (2.8 percent), the commercial fleet (2.1 percent), the general aviation fleet (0.6 percent) and tower operations (1.0 percent) are consistent with their printed endpoints when rounded to one decimal.[4] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · inference from this page's checks of FAA's endpoints
Timeline
- 2026-11-04
FAA's Aerospace Forecasts web page, listing the FY 2026-2046 forecast, is last updated.[1]
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why do the two 2025 tower operations growth rates differ?
- When will the next forecast appear?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 11/09/2026, 00:34
- Body characters
- 7,779
- Sources
- 6 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 11/09/2026, 00:51
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 11/09/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 11/09/2026 | First version. Read in full the FAA Aerospace Forecasts page and the FY 2026-2046 sections: Forecast Overview, Review of 2025, the forecast chapters, Forecast Uncertainties, and Glossary and Acknowledgements; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 11/09/2026 | Revised after review: both periods of the fixed-wing piston decline are calculated from FAA's chart (2,544 from 2024, 1,594 from 2026), with the overview's figure described as broadly consistent with the 2026 base; the RPM rates are reported as printed without claiming an inconsistency; the tower operations growth rates are given with their scopes (FAA and contract towers versus towered airports), leaving scope and cause not established; the crude oil row is marked as an S&P Global input assumption cited by FAA; column headers say base-year actual or estimate and 2026 forecast or growth as printed. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How many international air passengers does FAA project for 2046?
479.8 million to and from the U.S. in CY2046 (projected), up from 268.0 million in CY2025, on U.S. and foreign carriers.[4]
How large will the U.S. commercial fleet be?
10,677 aircraft in 2046 (projected), against 6,949 in 2025, or 2.1 percent a year.[4]
Does the forecast include the Iran conflict's effects?
No: FAA's 2026-2046 forecast excludes them because the conflict began after the report was prepared.[2]
Are the forecasts limited by airport and airspace capacity?
No: FAA's 20-year forecasts are unconstrained and assume sufficient infrastructure.[5]
Does FAA forecast student pilots?
No: student pilot forecasts have been suspended since 2018, although 370,286 student certificates were counted at the end of 2025.[4]
When is the next FAA Aerospace Forecast?
The 2026-2046 edition's web page was last updated November 4, 2026; the next edition's date is not established by these sources.[1]
Official links
Sources
- [1] FAA Aerospace Forecasts (FAA web page) primary
- [2] FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046: Forecast Overview, PDF primary
- [3] FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046: Review of 2025, PDF primary
- [4] FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046: FAA Aerospace Forecasts (forecast chapters), PDF primary
- [5] FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046: Forecast Uncertainties, PDF primary
- [6] FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2026-2046: Glossary of Acronyms and Acknowledgements, PDF primary