How to Read EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook — Oil, Gasoline and Natural Gas Forecasts Compared with September

As of 29 October 2026 (KST); most recent edition: the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of October 6, 2026, with model inputs finalized on October 1, 2026. The next edition is scheduled for November 10, 2026, and EIA says: "The STEO is normally released between 12:00 pm (noon) and 12:15 pm EDT (summer)/EST (winter)." Primary source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf^[1][3][4]

Comparison basis: every figure in the table is from EIA's comparison of its October 6 and September 9 forecasts, as published there (two decimals for fuel prices and crude oil production); the year-ago column uses the 2025 average shown in the same October table. The 2026 average is part estimate and part forecast (see below). The summary table at the top of the report shows the same series rounded, and its note says: "Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report." The report's own table of notable forecast changes adds: "Note: Percentages and changes are calculated from unrounded values." The report, comparison tables, home page and schedule are all from EIA and count as one source.^[1][2]

In three lines

1. The STEO is EIA's monthly forecast of U.S. and world energy supply, consumption and prices; the October 2026 edition runs through 2027, by quarter and by year.
2. The October 6, 2026 edition raised the 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to $96.32 per barrel from $91.01 a month earlier and puts 2026 retail gasoline at $3.91 per gallon.
3. The next edition is expected on November 10, 2026; EIA says this one does not specifically account for market events after October 1.^[1][2]

Who prepares it. "By law, our data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government."^[1]

The cutoff. "We finalized inputs into the model on October 1, 2026." "This month’s forecast does not specifically account for market events after that day." "Accordingly, this outlook includes exchanges for 40 million barrels of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve announced on September 29." "However, it does not account for any additional crude oil or petroleum products on the market as a result of the G7’s announcement on October 2."^[1]

The economy inside the forecast. "To generate the macroeconomic assumptions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we input STEO energy price forecasts into S&P Global’s Short-Term U.S. Macroeconomic Model to produce a conditional macroeconomic forecast." The October edition puts U.S. real GDP growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.^[1]

When it comes out. "The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) scheduling procedure calls for the release of the STEO on the first Tuesday following the first Thursday of each month." The schedule lists November 10 and December 8, 2026, for the next two editions.^[4]

Estimated past vs forecast inside the 2026 average. The comparison table left the first two quarters of 2026 unchanged for Brent ($81.11 and $102.93 per barrel) and raised the third quarter from $89.11 to $95.95 and the fourth from $90.66 to $104.69. The 2026 annual average therefore mixes months already past with forecast months, and a month-to-month revision to it can come from either.^[2]

Annual average vs quarterly path. "We now forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will average $105 per barrel (b) in 4Q26, $14/b higher than in last month’s STEO." For 2027, "We expect the Brent spot price will fall to an average of $84/b next year." The report describes the path within 2027: the Brent price falls to $87/b by 2Q27, and "As depleted global oil inventories build throughout next year, oil prices gradually fall to an average of $74/b in 4Q27." It also warns: "However, we expect the conflict in the Middle East will lead to continued volatility in crude oil flows both through the Strait of Hormuz and through alternative routes, which will likely lead to more volatility in short-term price movements than our forecast indicates."^[1][2]

Annual vs February-December natural gas prices. EIA forecasts its benchmark natural gas spot price at $3.16 per million British thermal units in 2027, down 32 cents (9%) from 2026, and says the decline largely reflects January 2026, when the price averaged $7.72 in the aftermath of winter storm Fern. With 2027 inventories in its forecast similar to this year's, EIA forecasts $3.09 for February through December in 2027, unchanged from the same months of 2026.^[1][2]

Crude oil vs pump prices. "Retail gasoline prices averaged $4.35 per gallon (gal), and retail diesel prices averaged $6.29/gal." Those September averages compare with the 2026 annual forecasts of $3.91 for gasoline and $5.19 for diesel. The report explains the gap between stages: "Crack spreads reflect the difference between crude oil prices and wholesale prices." "Decreases in wholesale crack spreads will not immediately translate into lower retail prices."^[1][2]

"The Brent crude oil spot price increased to an average of $114 per barrel (b) in September, $23/b higher than in August." EIA says prices rose following increased attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers around the Middle East, the most notable being attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. "We assess that crude oil production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million b/d in September, down from 5.8 million b/d in August and down from 10.9 million b/d at the peak in May."^[1]

Not only prices were revised. The October comparison table raised 2026 dry natural gas production from 111.7 to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day and electricity retail sales from 4,135 to 4,152 billion kilowatthours, while leaving the 2026 residential electricity price at 18.2 cents per kilowatthour.^[2]

Inflation. The price tables carry the note: "Note: Prices are not adjusted for inflation." EIA's STEO home page offers a separate Real Prices Viewer for inflation-adjusted views.^[2]