How to Read EIA's Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices — Residential vs Wholesale, Standard Errors and Revisions

As of 30 October 2026, 01:42 KST; most recent weekly estimates: U.S. residential heating oil and propane prices for Monday, October 26, 2026, released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 28, 2026, with the next release listed for November 4, 2026. Residential heating oil is surveyed in 21 states and the District of Columbia and residential propane in 38 states. The release page says: "Release Schedule: From October through March, the data are published weekly and are updated every Wednesday after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern time)." "Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season, which extends from October through March." Primary source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/^[1][2][4]

Comparison basis: current prices and the weekly and yearly changes are EIA's published figures to three decimals; the summary page used here does not print the previous week's level; EIA's separate weekly tables do, and the previous column is taken from them (each equals the current price minus the published weekly change); all prices are rounded to a tenth of a cent. Prices are "Price in dollars per gallon, excluding taxes." Residential prices come from EIA's survey of retail outlets, while wholesale prices come from a commercial price service. The release page, methodology and standard-error workbook are all from EIA and count as one source.^[1][2][4]

In three lines

1. During the October-March heating season, EIA publishes weekly residential and wholesale prices of No. 2 heating oil and propane for the U.S., regions and covered states, excluding taxes.
2. For October 26, 2026, U.S. residential heating oil averaged $6.233 a gallon, $2.636 above a year earlier, and residential propane $2.730, $0.296 above.
3. Prices for the previous week may be revised in the following week's publication.^[1][2]

"The data collected represent the price as of 7:00 a.m. local time on Monday even during the weeks when data collection may be delayed a day or two because of a holiday." "The weekly survey also collects data by state on the price of these fuels offered to residential consumers, excluding taxes and discounts such as those given to cash or high-volume purchasers."^[2]

Coverage. "We collect residential No. 2 heating oil prices for 21 states in the East Coast and Midwest regions and the District of Columbia (DC)." "We collect residential propane prices for 38 states in the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain regions." The samples are about 1,000 heating oil outlets and about 1,600 propane outlets.^[2]

Publication. "During the heating season, we publish the average price estimates for residential No. 2 heating oil and propane at about 1:00 p.m. eastern time every Wednesday, except when a government holiday falls on or before the Wednesday of that week." "Wholesale propane prices are provided to EIA directly from OPIS."^[2]

Point estimate vs confidence interval. "The MOE is defined as the estimated standard error of the estimate multiplied by the standard normal percentile for the level of confidence, rounded up to the nearest unit used in publishing the corresponding estimate." In EIA's standard-error workbook (October 26, 2026 rows, date serial 46321), U.S. residential heating oil at $6.233 has a standard error of $0.033334209962993855 (standard-errors.xlsx, sheet '2026-27 Residential_HO_SE', cell E86) and propane at $2.730 one of $0.03138667740449096 (sheet '2026-27 Residential_PR_SE', cell E140). From those values, 1.96 × 0.0333342 = 0.0653 and 1.96 × 0.0313867 = 0.0615, rounded up to 95% margins of $0.066 and $0.062, so the intervals are $6.167 to $6.299 and $2.668 to $2.792 (this page's calculations, following EIA's method).^[2][3]

National vs state precision. "For quality assurance purposes, average price estimates are flagged if the corresponding estimated coefficient of variation is more than 5%." For October 26, 2026, the propane estimates for Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Kansas and Montana carry that flag; Alabama's $3.630 has a standard error of $0.25603380140327636 (sheet '2026-27 Residential_PR_SE', cell E148, flag cell F148 = Yes), a coefficient of variation of 0.25603 ÷ 3.630 = about 7.05% (this page's calculation), against 0.0313867 ÷ 2.730 = about 1.15% for the U.S. propane average.^[2][3]

Residential vs wholesale. U.S. residential heating oil ($6.233) was $0.915 above wholesale heating oil ($5.318) on October 26, 2026 (this page's subtraction); the residential series excludes taxes and discounts, and the release does not break down the difference.^[1]

Preliminary vs revised. "Values shown on the graph and corresponding data pages for the previous week may be revised to account for late submissions and corrections." "During the heating season, preliminary price estimates for the previous week may be revised in the publication for the current week based on data that were received late or were revised." "Revision error is the difference between published preliminary and final estimates for the previous week."^[1][2]