How to Read EIA's Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices — Monday Survey, Standard Errors and Regional Gaps

As of 30 October 2026, 01:30 KST; most recent weekly estimate: U.S. regular gasoline retail prices for Monday, October 26, 2026, released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 27, 2026; the next release is listed for November 3, 2026. The methodology says: "The average gasoline price estimates are published at approximately 10:00 a.m. ET Tuesday, except on government holidays, when the data are released on Wednesday (but still represent Monday's prices)." Primary source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/^[1][2][4]

Comparison basis: prices and changes are EIA's published figures in dollars per gallon to three decimals; the year-ago level is this page's subtraction of the published change from the current price. "The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline." The estimates are rounded to a tenth of a cent, so the published changes are differences of rounded prices. Diesel prices on the same page come from a separate survey with its own methodology and are not covered here. The release page, methodology, standard-error workbook and schedule are all from EIA and count as one source.^[1][2]

In three lines

1. EIA's weekly survey estimates the average U.S. retail price of gasoline, including taxes, as of 8:00 a.m. local time each Monday, nationally and for regions, states and cities.
2. For October 26, 2026, the U.S. regular gasoline price was $4.269 a gallon, down 1.5 cents from a week earlier and $1.234 above a year earlier.
3. Each estimate comes with a published standard error, so a confidence interval can be calculated.^[1][2]

"The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards." "The new gasoline outlet sample is a stratified systematic sample with a total size of 1,000 retail outlets." "The volumes represented by the reporting outlets in the weekly survey (in terms of total weighted annual sales volume) account for at least 80% for regular grade at the U.S. level."^[2]

Quality rules. "For quality assurance purposes, average price estimates are withheld from publication if at least half of the weighted annual sales volume is based on outlets for which the weekly gasoline prices are imputed." "For quality assurance purposes, average price estimates are flagged if the corresponding estimated coefficient of variation is more than 5%." "Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, EIA employs quality control procedures throughout the survey process."^[2]

Series break. "As a result of these methodological changes, the published estimates for May 14, 2018, will not be directly comparable to those published in the May 7, 2018, release that were based on the previous sample used by EIA (prior to these changes)."^[2]

Point estimate vs confidence interval. "The MOE is defined as the estimated standard error of the estimate multiplied by the standard normal percentile for the level of confidence, rounded up to the nearest unit used in publishing the corresponding estimate." In EIA's standard-error workbook, the October 26, 2026 row (date serial 46321) for U.S. regular gasoline, all formulations, shows $4.269 (mogas_recent_prices_and_SEs.xlsx sheet1 H23 = 4.269) with a standard error of $0.0202571133 (sheet1 I23 = 0.0202571133). From that value, 1.96 × 0.0202571133 = 0.0397, rounded up to a 95% margin of error of $0.040, so the 95% interval is $4.229 to $4.309; 1.645 × 0.0202571133 = 0.0333, rounded up to a 90% margin of $0.034; the coefficient of variation is 0.0202571133 ÷ 4.269 = about 0.47% (this page's calculations, following EIA's method). No row in the workbook carries the CV>5% flag (all 1,276 data rows checked in the copy retrieved 2026-10-30 01:30 KST).^[2][3]

A one-week change vs sampling error. The U.S. price fell 1.5 cents in the week, which is smaller than the 4.0-cent 95% margin of error of a single week's estimate (this page's comparison); this is a margin for one week's price level, not for the weekly change, and does not test the change's significance.^[1][3]

Week vs year. The table shows changes from a week, a year and two years earlier; the U.S. price was $1.234 above a year earlier and $1.172 above two years earlier, so the year-ago price was about $3.035 (this page's subtraction). The release does not explain these changes.^[1]

Regions. On October 26, 2026, California averaged $5.888 and the Gulf Coast $3.702, a gap of $2.186 (this page's subtraction). In the workbook, California's row gives a price only in the reformulated-areas column, while the Gulf Coast row gives both conventional-area and reformulated-area prices.^[1][3]