US New Home Sales — July 2026: Sharpest Drop Since January
Revised: July 2026 sales were later revised to a 643,000 rate (first reported 607,000). New single-family home sales fell 10.5% in July to a 607,000 annual rate — the lowest since January. Unsold inve
Update: July revised in the August release
The August 2026 release revised July: "This is 6.4 percent (±19.5 percent)* above the July 2026 rate of 643,000" — July's sales rate is now 643,000, not the 607,000 first reported on this page. The rest of this page describes the July release as first published.[5]
The leading edge of the housing market turns down
Read against the source's own error bars, this report does not establish a turn. The July release was widely covered as a sharp decline, but Census marks the drop with an asterisk — meaning the 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. New home sales — the contract-based, rate-sensitive edge of the market — fell to their lowest pace since January, missing expectations by a wide margin.[1][3]
The supply picture is the bigger story: 9.6 months of unsold inventory gives builders little reason to break ground, which echoes the July slump in housing starts. With Jackson Hole opening this week, the housing data adds a dovish argument to the policy debate.[1][2]
Almost every figure in this release is flagged as not significant
The headline number is real, but the source attaches a confidence interval to every percentage change, and marks with an asterisk any change whose 90 percent interval includes zero. In the July 2026 release (CB26-128, published 25 August 2026) almost everything is asterisked: sales "10.5 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the June 2026 rate", the year-on-year comparison "6.3 percent (±19.6 percent)*", months' supply "12.9 percent (±21.3 percent)*", the median price "2.3 percent (±7.4 percent)*" and the average price "4.1 percent (±11.8 percent)*".[1]
The only change in the release without an asterisk is the for-sale inventory, reported as "1.9 percent (±1.2 percent) above the June 2026 estimate of 479,000" — that interval does not contain zero, so it is the one movement the publisher treats as statistically distinguishable from no change. Everything else in the month is, by the source's own standard, uncertain in direction.[1]
What this means for how the figures above should be read. 607,000 is the published estimate and the level is not in dispute — what the asterisk qualifies is the *comparison*. A ±14.0 point interval around a −10.5% change spans roughly −24.5% to +3.5%, which includes an increase. This page keeps the figures because they are what was published, and records what they are not: evidence of a confirmed decline.[1]
Revision: the August 2026 release (published 24 September 2026) revised July's sales rate to 643,000 from the 607,000 first reported, and put August at 684,000, 6.4 percent above July; that change is also marked with an asterisk.[1][5]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
Sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July — 10.5% below June's 678,000 pace and 6.3% below July 2025. It was the lowest rate since January.[1][2][3] 3 sources · independent
The inventory of new homes for sale stood at 488,000 at the end of July, equal to 9.6 months of supply at the current sales pace, up from 8.5 months in June.[1][2] 2 sources · independent
The median sales price was $393,800 — down 2.3% from June and 0.9% below a year earlier — while the average price rose to $508,800.[1][2] 2 sources · independent
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Market expectations had pointed to a milder decline to about a 620,000 rate; the reported drop was the sharpest monthly fall of the year, with the Midwest and South leading the weakness.[3] single-source ×1 · Trading Economics summary
Census/HUD report the July 2026 decline as "10.5 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the June 2026 rate of 678,000", where the asterisk marks a change whose 90 percent confidence interval includes zero.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · Census/HUD Monthly New Residential Sales, July 2026 (CB26-128)
In the same release the only percentage change without an asterisk is the for-sale inventory, "1.9 percent (±1.2 percent) above the June 2026 estimate of 479,000".[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · Same release, For Sale Inventory and Months' Supply section
Timeline
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 08/25/2026, 23:40
- Body characters
- 2,482
- Sources
- 5 sources adopted
- Model
- claude-opus-5 (review pass)
- Time
- 08/25/2026, 23:40
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (6)
| 08/25/2026, 23:40 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 08/25/2026 | First authored — day of the announcement | Updated |
| 09/23/2026 | Checked the release's confidence intervals: almost every percentage change carried an asterisk (not significant). Softened definite statements and stated the intervals; only inventory was significant. | Updated |
| 09/30/2026 | References corrected: the quoted sentences are in the July 2026 release PDF (source 1), not on the current-release page (source 4) they were cited to. The wording was accurate throughout, margins of error included. Source 1 here is a dated address, so it will keep serving the July release. | Updated |
| 10/05/2026 | Added the revised July figure (643,000) from the August 2026 release at the top; the July release figures below are kept as first published. | Updated |
| 10/07/2026 | Moved July references off the rolling Census page, updated the revision paragraph, and added FAQ footnotes. | Updated |
Corrections
| 09/30/2026 | Quotation check found these sentences cited to the programme's current-release page, which does not carry them. They appear in the July 2026 release PDF this entry already lists as source 1. The citation was wrong, not the quotation; the references now point to the release. Checked 2026-09-30. | Applied |
| 10/07/2026 | Source 4 (the Census current-release page) now shows the August release, so refs that relied on it for July text now point to the archived July release, and the paragraph saying no August revision was available was replaced with the revision (July to 643,000). FAQ corrections: removed the unsourced six-month benchmark, the 12.4% housing-starts figure and the sales-mix explanation; added the significance markers and the revision. | Applied |
Frequently asked
Existing-home sales barely moved in July — why did new home sales crash?
A new-home sale is counted when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted, and the house can be at any stage of construction. July's first estimate of 607,000 was 10.5% below June, but Census marked that change as not statistically significant, and the August release revised July to 643,000 and put August at 684,000.[1][3][5]
Is 9.6 months of supply a lot?
It was up from 8.5 months in June, with 488,000 new homes for sale at the end of July. Census marked the change in months' supply as not statistically significant; the only change in the release without that mark was the 1.9% rise in homes for sale.[1]
Why did the median price fall while the average rose?
Census reported a median price of $393,800, 2.3% below June, and an average of $508,800, 4.1% above June. Both changes were marked as not statistically significant, so the release does not establish that the two measures moved in opposite directions.[1]
Did new home sales actually fall in July 2026?
The published estimate is 607,000, down 10.5% from June. But Census marks that change with an asterisk, meaning the 90 percent confidence interval (±14.0 points) includes zero — so the direction of the change is not statistically established.[4]
Official links
- Official Census — New Residential Sales
Sources
- [1] Monthly New Residential Sales, July 2026 primary
- [2] New Single-Family Home Sales Declined 10.5% in July
- [3] United States New Home Sales
- [4] Monthly New Residential Sales, July 2026 (Release CB26-128, latest report page, read 2026-09-23) primary
- [5] Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026 (Release CB26-155, September 24, 2026) primary