How to Read the USDA Rice Stocks Report — Rough and Milled Rice On and Off Farms, and the California-Only October Count
USDA Rice Stocks, rice in all positions: California only on October 1, 2026, rough rice 2.65 million cwt (+5% from a year earlier); latest U.S. date August 1, 2026, 50.0 million cwt (+12%).
Key figures (Rice Stocks, October 22, 2026 report)
As of 30 October 2026, 03:04 KST; most recently published report: Rice Stocks, released October 22, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with stocks on October 1, 2026 for California only and the August 1, 2026 U.S. and state tables repeated. The NASS October 2026 calendar lists the release at 12:00 pm ET; the publication page listed no upcoming release date when checked. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796116/rice1026.txt[1][3][4]
| Indicator (rice stocks in all positions, 1,000 cwt) | Previous (August 1, 2026 for California rows; June 1, 2026 for U.S. rows) | Current (October 1, 2026 for California rows; August 1, 2026 for U.S. rows) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago (same date in 2025) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rough rice, California only, October 1 | 10,518 | 2,645 | down 75% (published); -74.9% (calculated) | up 5% (published) from 2,522; +4.9% (calculated) | levels and published % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % changes marked calculated: this page |
| Milled rice, California only, October 1 | 2,292 | 1,403 | down 39% (published); -38.8% (calculated) | -0.1% (calculated) from 1,404 | levels and published % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % changes marked calculated: this page |
| Medium grain rough rice, California only, October 1 | 9,459 | 2,215 | -76.6% (calculated) | +2.4% (calculated) from 2,163 | levels and published % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % changes marked calculated: this page |
| Rough rice, United States, August 1 (latest U.S. date) | 74,814 | 50,041 | -33.1% (calculated) | up 12% (published) from 44,615; +12.2% (calculated) | levels and published % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % changes marked calculated: this page |
| Milled rice, United States, August 1 (latest U.S. date) | 5,929 | 5,869 | -1.0% (calculated) | down 9% (published) from 6,483; -9.5% (calculated) | levels and published % changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; % changes marked calculated: this page |
Comparison basis: levels are as published in thousand hundredweight (cwt); published changes are whole percentages, and this page's calculated changes are rounded to one decimal. The October 1 rows cover California only, as the table footnote states, so they cannot be compared with the U.S. rows; the latest U.S. figures are for August 1, 2026. The August 1 figures in the October report match those first published on August 20, 2026. The two releases, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.[1][2]
In three lines
1. Rice Stocks reports rough and milled rice held on and off farms; the October 1 count covers California only; the report also repeats August 1 U.S. and state figures.
2. California rough rice stocks on October 1, 2026 were 2.65 million cwt, up 5% from a year earlier.
3. The latest U.S. figure is August 1, 2026: rough rice 50.0 million cwt, up 12% from August 1, 2025.[1][2]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"California rough rice stocks in all positions on October 1, 2026, totaled 2.65 million hundredweight (cwt), up 5 percent from the total on October 1, 2025 of 2.52 million cwt." "California rough rice stocks were down 75 percent from the August 1, 2026 level." "Medium grain varieties accounted for 84 percent of the total rough rice, while long and short varieties combined to account for 16 percent of the total rough rice stocks." "California milled rice stocks in all positions totaled 1.40 million cwt, down 39 percent from the August 1, 2026 level."[1]
How the October count is made. "The rice stocks estimates in this report are based on surveys mailed at the end of September with phone follow-up conducted in October." "Unlike other rice stocks estimation periods, only an off-farm survey was conducted." "Off-farm stocks are a census of all known rice storage facilities." "Estimates are made for missing facilities to assure complete coverage." The October table still prints a California on-farm figure (60 thousand cwt); the report does not say how it was derived.[1]
How other quarters are counted. In the August report: "The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey based on a sampling procedure that ensures all operations storing rice in the United States have a chance to be selected."[2]
What counts as off-farm and milled. The off-farm column footnote reads: "Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, ports, and in transit." For milled rice, the August report says: "Milled rice stocks were comprised of 4.10 million cwt of whole kernel rice and 1.77 million cwt of second heads, screenings, and brewers rice."[1][2]
Reading in pairs
California vs United States. The October 1 rows are California only; Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas appear only in the August 1 and earlier tables. A California figure for October 1 says nothing about U.S. stocks on that date.[1]
Year ago vs two months earlier. California rough rice was up 5% from October 1, 2025 but down 75% from August 1, 2026 (both published). The report gives both changes without explaining them.[1]
Rough vs milled. On August 1, 2026, U.S. rough rice stocks were up 12% from a year earlier while milled rice stocks were down 9% (both published); the two are separate stock measures and are not added together.[1][2]
Census vs sample. For periods with an on-farm survey, such as August 2026: "The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample." Off-farm stocks come from a census of known storage facilities, so the two parts carry different kinds of error. That sampling description cannot be applied to the October 1 California on-farm figure (60 thousand cwt), because only an off-farm survey was conducted for October and the report does not explain how that figure was derived.[1]
First print vs revised. "On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision in the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Rice Stocks report published in January each year." "Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculating, and when production estimates are revised."[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
California rough rice stocks in all positions were 2.65 million cwt on October 1, 2026, up 5 percent from October 1, 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
California milled rice stocks in all positions were 1.40 million cwt on October 1, 2026, down 39 percent from August 1, 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Medium grain varieties made up 84 percent of California rough rice stocks on October 1, 2026.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. rough rice stocks in all positions were 50.0 million cwt on August 1, 2026, up 12 percent from August 1, 2025.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. milled rice stocks in all positions were 5.87 million cwt on August 1, 2026, down 9 percent from a year earlier.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
U.S. rough rice stocks on August 1, 2026 (50,041 thousand cwt) were 33.1% below June 1, 2026 (74,814 thousand cwt).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the October 22 release
California milled rice stocks on October 1, 2026 (1,403 thousand cwt) were 0.1% below October 1, 2025 (1,404 thousand cwt).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the October 22 release
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- How was the October 1 California on-farm figure derived when only an off-farm survey was conducted?
- Why were California rough rice stocks up 5% from a year earlier?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 10/30/2026, 03:08
- Body characters
- 6,192
- Sources
- 4 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 10/30/2026, 03:12
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 10/30/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 10/30/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Rice Stocks text releases of October 22, 2026 and August 20, 2026, including all position, state and length-of-grain tables, footnotes and methodology, plus the publication page and the NASS October 2026 release calendar; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 10/30/2026 | Revised after review: the three-line summary says the October 1 count covers California only and that the report also repeats August 1 U.S. and state figures; the census and sample paragraph limits the on-farm sampling description to periods with an on-farm survey, such as August 2026, and notes that it cannot be applied to the October 1 California on-farm figure. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How much rough rice was stored in California in all positions on October 1, 2026?
2.65 million cwt (2,645 thousand), up 5% from 2.52 million cwt on October 1, 2025, according to the NASS report of October 22, 2026.[1]
Does the October 1, 2026 Rice Stocks figure cover the whole United States?
No: the October 1, 2026 rows are California only; the latest U.S. totals are for August 1, 2026 (rough rice 50,041 thousand cwt).[1]
How much rough rice was stored in the United States in all positions on August 1, 2026?
50.0 million cwt, up 12% from August 1, 2025; 7.38 million cwt was on farms and 42.7 million cwt off farms.[2]
What do off-farm rice stocks include in the Rice Stocks report?
Per the table footnote, stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, ports, and in transit; on October 1, 2026, California off-farm rough rice stocks were 2,585 thousand cwt.[1]
Was there an on-farm survey for the October 1, 2026 rice stocks?
No: NASS says only an off-farm survey was conducted for the October 1, 2026 estimates, mailed at the end of September with phone follow-up in October.[1]
Can the October 1, 2026 California rice stocks be revised?
Yes, in the quarter after first publication and again in the December 1 Rice Stocks report published in January each year, according to the revision policy in the October 22, 2026 report.[1]