How to Read the USDA Small Grains Summary — Wheat by Type and Class, Oats, Barley and Rye
USDA Small Grains 2026 Summary, U.S. end-of-season estimates (released September 30): all wheat 1.53 billion bushels (-23% from revised 2025), yield 48.1 bushels per acre; barley 116 million (-19%).
Key figures (Small Grains 2026 Summary, September 30, 2026)
As of 1 November 2026, 00:34 KST; most recently published report: Small Grains (annual summary), released September 30, 2026, by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with final-season 2026 estimates of wheat, oats, barley and rye by state and for the United States. The NASS September 2026 calendar lists the release at 12:00 pm ET; the report is annual and the publication page showed no next date when checked. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796086/smgr0926.txt[1][2][3]
| Indicator (United States) | Previous (2025, revised, as printed in the 2026 summary) | Current (2026) | Change vs previous | Change vs year ago: same as previous for an annual series; shown instead: change vs 2024 (two-year change; this page's calculation) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All wheat production (1,000 bushels) | 1,989,176 | 1,533,739 | down 23% (published); -22.9% (calculated) | -22.5% from 1,978,697 in 2024 | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| All wheat yield (bushels per acre) | 53.3 | 48.1 | -5.2 bushels (published) | not computed | levels and published change: USDA NASS primary statistical record |
| All wheat area harvested (1,000 acres) | 37,345 | 31,899 | down 15% (published); -14.6% (calculated) | not computed | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| Winter wheat production (1,000 bushels) | 1,405,403 | 1,019,380 | -27.5% (calculated) | not computed | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| Hard red winter wheat production (1,000 bushels) | 806,326 | 466,434 | down 42% (published); -42.2% (calculated) | not computed | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| Barley production (1,000 bushels) | 142,508 | 115,667 | down 19% (published); -18.8% (calculated) | not computed | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
| Rye production (1,000 bushels) | 12,399 | 8,701 | down 30% (published); -29.8% (calculated) | not computed | levels and published changes: USDA NASS primary statistical record; calculated %: this page |
Comparison basis: levels are as published; 2025 figures are the revised values printed in the 2026 summary. Published changes are whole percentages or bushel differences; this page's calculated changes are rounded to one decimal. Because the series is annual, the fifth column shows the two-year change from 2024 for wheat production only. The report, publication page and calendar are all from USDA and count as one source.[1]
In three lines
1. The annual NASS summary gives end-of-season area, yield and production for wheat (by type and class), oats, barley and rye, by state and for the United States.
2. U.S. all wheat production in 2026 was 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from revised 2025, on 31.9 million harvested acres yielding 48.1 bushels per acre.
3. Barley production was 116 million bushels (down 19%), oats 69.1 million (down 1%) and rye 8.70 million (down 30%).[1]
What the report says (in NASS's words)
"All wheat production totaled 1.53 billion bushels in 2026, down 23 percent from the revised 2025 total." "Area harvested for grain totaled 31.9 million acres, down 15 percent from 2025." "The average yield for the Nation was 48.1 bushels per acre, down 5.2 bushels from the previous year." "Production for oats in 2026 was estimated at 69.1 million bushels, down 1 percent from 2025." "Barley production for the Nation was estimated at 116 million bushels, down 19 percent from 2025." "Rye: Production for 2026 was estimated at 8.70 million bushels, down 30 percent from the 2025 total."[1]
How the estimates are made. "The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 States that accounted for 72 percent of the 2025 winter wheat production." "Approximately 66,600 producers were interviewed during the first two weeks of September and asked questions pertaining to planted and harvested area as well as yield and production." "The Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) reviews multiple data sources at the National and State level, including USDA administrative acreage data, satellite imagery, and objective yield and grower reported data."[1]
Reading in pairs
Table vs text. The crop comments say: "Of the total production, 466 million bushels were Hard Red Winter wheat, down 42 percent from the revised 2025 total, while Soft Red Winter production totaled 294 million bushels, down 17 percent from last year." "Hard White Winter production was estimated at 5.28 million bushels, down 63 percent from 2025, while 254 million bushels were Hard White Winter wheat, up 10 percent from last year." The class table, however, lists 253,914 thousand bushels under soft white winter (up 9.7% from 231,501, this page's calculation) and 5,282 thousand under hard white winter, and compared with the class table, the second "Hard White Winter" in the text appears to refer to the soft white winter row; whether NASS has corrected it was not checked.[1]
What the error figures cover. The quoted relative standard errors apply to survey indications reported by producers, which are subject to sampling variability because not all operations with small grains are in the sample. "This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the National level, is approximately 2.0 percent for winter wheat, 7.1 percent for Durum wheat, and 2.7 percent for other spring wheat." "The relative standard errors for barley, oats, and rye are 3.7, 5.4, and 6.4 percent, respectively." They describe sampling variability of survey indications at the national level, and NASS also uses administrative and satellite data in setting the final estimates. This page's reading: they are not a test of whether the 23% decline in wheat production is significant.[1]
Final for the season vs revisable. "Estimates contained in this report may be revised in the Crop Production Annual Summary report published in January should new information become available." The 2025 figures in this report are labeled as revised: 2025 all wheat production is printed as 1,989,176 thousand bushels.[1]
States vs U.S. Kansas winter wheat production fell from 346,800 to 200,600 thousand bushels and Washington rose from 141,250 to 165,470 (all wheat); the report notes record yields in some states but does not explain the changes.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
U.S. all wheat production totaled 1.53 billion bushels in 2026, down 23 percent from the revised 2025 total.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The U.S. average wheat yield was 48.1 bushels per acre in 2026, down 5.2 bushels from 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. hard red winter wheat production was 466 million bushels in 2026, down 42 percent from the revised 2025 total.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
U.S. barley production was estimated at 116 million bushels in 2026, down 19 percent from 2025.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS interviewed approximately 66,600 producers in the first two weeks of September 2026 for the small grains estimates.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
U.S. all wheat production in 2026 (1,533,739 thousand bushels) was 22.9% below 2025 and 22.5% below 2024.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's calculation from the September 30 report
The 254 million bushels described as Hard White Winter wheat in the crop comments match the soft white winter row of the class table (253,914 thousand bushels).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of the class table and crop comments
Timeline
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why was 2026 wheat production 23% below 2025?
- Will the January 2027 annual summary revise these figures?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 11/01/2026, 00:38
- Body characters
- 6,408
- Sources
- 3 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 11/01/2026, 00:43
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 11/01/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 11/01/2026 | First version. Read in full the USDA NASS Small Grains 2026 Summary of September 30, 2026, including oat, barley, wheat by type, class tables, class distributions, head counts, rye and summary tables, crop comments and methodology, plus the publication page and the NASS September 2026 release calendar; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 11/01/2026 | Revised after review: the publication page is described as showing no next date when checked; the table-versus-text note says the second Hard White Winter appears to refer to the soft white winter row and that any NASS correction was not checked; rye production is added; the yield row evidence type no longer mentions a calculation; the relative standard errors are described as applying to producer-reported survey indications, with the significance point marked as this page's reading. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How much wheat did the United States produce in 2026?
1.53 billion bushels of all wheat (1,533,739 thousand), down 23% from the revised 2025 total, according to the NASS Small Grains summary of September 30, 2026.[1]
How much hard red winter wheat did the U.S. produce in 2026?
466 million bushels (466,434 thousand), down 42% from the revised 2025 total of 806,326 thousand bushels.[1]
What was the U.S. wheat yield in 2026?
48.1 bushels per acre for all wheat, down 5.2 bushels from 2025; winter wheat yielded 48.8, other spring 48.0 and Durum 39.7.[1]
What do the 2.0% and 7.1% relative standard errors in the 2026 Small Grains report measure?
Sampling variability of producer survey indications at the national level for winter wheat (2.0%) and Durum (7.1%); they are not significance tests of year-to-year changes.[1]
Could the 2026 U.S. small grains estimates be revised?
Yes: they may be revised in the Crop Production Annual Summary in January 2027 if new information becomes available, and previous-year figures can change in the next Small Grain Summary.[1]
How much barley and oats did the U.S. produce in 2026?
Barley 116 million bushels (down 19% from 2025) and oats 69.1 million bushels (down 1%).[1]