How to Read NASS Livestock Historical Track Records — First vs Final Estimates
NASS Livestock Historical Track Records (Sep 14, 2026): first vs final estimates; Jan 1, 2025 cattle 86,662.2 vs 86,472.2 thousand head (100.2%); 2026 finals not yet complete.
Key figures (Livestock Historical Track Records, September 2026)
As of 7 November 2026, 01:08 KST (retrieved by this page at that time); latest edition: Livestock Historical Track Records from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), released Sep 14 2026 according to the publication page (the cover says September 2026). It compares the first published U.S. estimate with the final or revised estimate for 16 livestock, dairy and poultry series, from 1980 (1995 for market sheep and lambs) to 2025 or 2026. Primary source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796059/lvstan26.txt[1][2]
| Indicator (United States; latest year with both estimates) | Previous: First estimate | Current: Final or revised estimate | Change vs previous: First minus final (as printed) | Change vs year ago: not applicable; this column is First as % of final (as printed) | Evidence type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cattle and calves, January 1, 2025 (1,000 head) | 86,662.2 | 86,472.2 | 190.0 | 100.2 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
| Beef cows that have calved, January 1, 2025 (1,000 head) | 27,863.5 | 27,892.0 | -28.5 | 99.9 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
| All hogs and pigs, December 1, 2025 (1,000 head) | 75,544.7 | 75,204.7 | 340.0 | 100.5 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
| Pig crop, 2025 (1,000 head) | 136,431.0 | 136,235.0 | 196.0 | 100.1 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
| Milk production, 2024 (million pounds) | 225,868.0 | 225,889.0 | -21.0 | 100.0 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
| Eggs produced, 2024 (million) | 108,514.9 | 109,129.4 | -614.5 | 99.4 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
| Turkeys produced, 2024 (1,000 head) | 200,000 | 200,000 | zero (printed as -) | 100.0 | NASS Livestock Historical Track Records table (first, final, percent and deviation as printed) |
Comparison basis: every figure is as printed by NASS, rounded as published; this page adds no calculations beyond checking that each printed deviation equals the first estimate minus the final estimate. Final means final or revised, as NASS's footnote says, and a positive deviation means the first estimate was higher than the final one.[1]
In three lines
1. The track records show how far NASS's first livestock estimates were from the later final or revised figures.
2. The January 1, 2025 cattle inventory was first put at 86,662.2 thousand head and later at 86,472.2 thousand, 100.2% of final.
3. Past first estimates reached 95.5% of final (all hogs and pigs, December 1, 2007) and 105.9% (eggs produced, 2018).[1]
What the track records show
Purpose. "These track records of United States Livestock and Poultry Inventory and Production were assembled to serve as a ready reference for data users." "This annual report provides comparisons of preliminary and final inventory estimates and comparisons of preliminary and final production estimates."[1][2]
How the estimates are made. "Livestock, dairy, and poultry estimates are based largely on probability surveys." "However, near-total counts are made for some items and administrative data is used whenever possible." First estimates are part of a program based largely on probability surveys, with other sources also used. The final figure can draw on later information; the report does not explain each individual revision.[1]
When a figure is final. "Commodity estimates are not considered final until the historical revision process is complete." Blank cells mean the final estimate is not complete: the 2026 January 1 cattle inventory, for example, shows only a first estimate of 86,155.3 thousand head, and 2025 milk production only 231,658.0 million pounds. A dash means zero, not missing.[1]
Units and periods differ by series. Inventories are in 1,000 head on January 1 (cattle, sheep) or December 1 (hogs); milk is in million pounds and eggs in millions. The pig crop and egg series cover December 1 of the previous year through November 30. The turkey series is printed as covering September 1 of the previous year through August 30, as printed by NASS. Broiler figures exclude States producing less than 500,000 broilers.[1]
Reading in pairs
Percent of final vs deviation. For the December 1, 2025 hog inventory the first estimate was 100.5% of final, a deviation of 340.0 thousand head. The percent shows relative size and the deviation the absolute gap; a small percent on a large inventory can still be many head.[1]
Recent vs historical misses. The first December 1, 2007 hog inventory was 95.5% of final (a deviation of -3,067.3 thousand head), 2018 egg production was first put at 105.9% of final (6,073.4 million), and the 1990 January 1 cattle inventory at 103.7% (3,520.8 thousand head). In this page's reading, a recent year's small deviation does not guarantee that the next first estimate will be as close.[1]
Direction of revisions. For the January 1 cattle inventory, the deviation was 190.0 for 2025 and 0.0 for 2024. The report does not establish why first estimates were high or low in any year.[1]
Period covered and next edition
Next edition. The publication page lists the report as annual, with recent editions in September; the date of the next edition is not established by these sources.[1][2]
Later figures. Final estimates for 2026 inventories and for 2025 milk, egg, broiler and turkey production were not complete in this edition; the cited pages do not give dates for those final figures.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
NASS's first estimate of the January 1, 2025 U.S. cattle inventory was 86,662.2 thousand head; the final or revised estimate is 86,472.2 thousand, 100.2 percent of final.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
The first estimate of the December 1, 2025 U.S. hog inventory was 75,544.7 thousand head against a final or revised 75,204.7 thousand.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS's first estimate of the December 1, 2007 hog inventory was 95.5 percent of the final estimate.[1] 1 source · authoritative record
NASS released the 2026 Livestock Historical Track Records on Sep 14 2026.[2] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
In the rows checked, the printed deviation equals the first estimate minus the final estimate, so a positive deviation means the first estimate was too high.[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's check of NASS's printed columns
In the all hogs and pigs December 1 inventory table for 1980–2025, the largest miss by percent of final and by absolute deviation is 2007 (95.5 percent, -3,067.3 thousand head).[1] This page’s own calculation or reading · This page's reading of NASS's track records
Timeline
- 2026-09-14
NASS releases the 2026 Livestock Historical Track Records.[2]
What this page could not establish
These are questions this page tried to answer and could not. The gaps are left open rather than filled with a guess.- Why was a particular year's first estimate high or low?
- When will the final 2026 inventory and 2025 production figures be completed?
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 11/07/2026, 01:08
- Body characters
- 5,603
- Sources
- 2 sources adopted
- Model
- ChatGPT (checked sources on the web)
- Time
- 11/07/2026, 01:21
- Verdict
- Revision required
Show revision history (3)
| 11/07/2026, 09:00 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 11/07/2026 | First version. Read in full NASS's Livestock Historical Track Records (September 2026) and its ESMIS publication page; quotations are complete sentences matched against the source text. | Updated |
| 11/07/2026 | Revised after review: the survey sentence now says first estimates are part of a program based largely on probability surveys, with other sources also used; the table columns are labeled First estimate, Final or revised estimate, First minus final and First as % of final; the unsupported statements about recent accuracy and sign changes are removed, and the largest-miss claim is limited to the all hogs and pigs December 1 table, checked by percent of final and absolute deviation. | Updated |
Frequently asked
How close was NASS's first estimate of the January 1, 2025 cattle inventory?
86,662.2 thousand head first, against 86,472.2 thousand final or revised: 100.2 percent of final, a deviation of 190.0 thousand head.[1]
How close was the first estimate of the December 1, 2025 hog inventory?
75,544.7 thousand head first, against 75,204.7 thousand final or revised: 100.5 percent of final.[1]
What was the largest hog inventory miss in the track record?
December 1, 2007, in the all hogs and pigs December 1 inventory table, by percent of final and absolute deviation: the first estimate was 95.5 percent of final, 3,067.3 thousand head below it.[1]
Is the January 1, 2026 cattle inventory final?
No: the September 2026 track record shows only the first estimate of 86,155.3 thousand head; the final estimate is not complete.[1]
What does a positive deviation mean in the NASS track records?
In the 2026 track records the deviation is the first estimate minus the final, so a positive number means the first estimate was higher.[1]
When is the next NASS Livestock Historical Track Records?
Recent editions came out each September (the latest on Sep 14 2026); the date of the next edition is not established by these sources.[2]