US Durable Goods Orders, July 2026 — Advance Estimate +1.1% to $339.3 Billion, Revised to +0.9% ($338.7 Billion)
Advance estimate: US durable goods orders rose 1.1% to $339.3B in July 2026, beating the 0.5% consensus, as transportation rebounded 2.3%. The August report revised July to +0.9% ($338.7B).
Headline beat driven by aircraft and transportation
The Census Bureau's advance report showed new orders for manufactured durable goods rising $3.6 billion, or 1.1%, to $339.3 billion in July 2026 — the fourth increase in five months and roughly double the pace economists had expected. The gain followed a 0.5% June increase.[1][2][3]
Transportation equipment did the heavy lifting, climbing $2.6 billion, or 2.3%, to $116.2 billion after two straight monthly declines, with nondefense aircraft and parts orders surging 12.7%. Stripping out transportation, orders rose just 0.4%, and excluding defense they rose 1.3%.[1][4]
Shipments, backlogs and the investment signal
Shipments rose 1.0% to $334.7 billion, up in ten of the last eleven months, while unfilled orders climbed 0.6% to nearly $1.6 trillion — a record backlog concentrated in transportation equipment ($1,006.4 billion). Core capital goods orders edged up 0.2%, keeping the business-investment trend positive heading into Q3. The fuller M3 report with nondurables follows on September 2, and the August advance report is due September 25, 2026.[1]
Verified facts
Each fact is labelled with its evidence typeEach fact in this section carries its evidence type — either cross-checked against independent sources, or confirmed from a single authoritative record.
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased $3.6 billion, or 1.1%, to $339.3 billion in July 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on August 26, 2026. Orders were up in four of the last five months.[1][2][3] 3 sources · independent
The July increase followed a 0.5% rise in June 2026, when orders reached a revised $335.7 billion.[1][2] 2 sources · independent
Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4% in July.[1][2] 2 sources · independent
Transportation equipment led the July increase, rising $2.6 billion, or 2.3%, to $116.2 billion, following two consecutive monthly decreases.[1][4] 2 sources · independent
The 1.1% headline gain exceeded expectations: economists had anticipated an increase of about 0.5%.[2][3] 2 sources · independent
In the August advance report released September 25, 2026, July new orders were revised to $338.7 billion, a 0.9% increase.[5] 1 source · authoritative record
Statements and readings
Not counted as facts — each item shows what kind of statement it isFrom here on: statements not counted as facts — single-source reports, the issuing body’s own statements, and this page’s own readings, each labeled.
Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.3% in July.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · U.S. Census Bureau advance report
Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a proxy for business investment plans — edged up 0.2% to $85.9 billion; shipments of those core capital goods rose 1.4%.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · U.S. Census Bureau advance report, Table 1
Shipments of durable goods rose 1.0% to $334.7 billion (up ten of the last eleven months); unfilled orders rose 0.6% to $1,599.9 billion; inventories rose 0.4% to $604.4 billion.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · U.S. Census Bureau advance report
Nondefense aircraft and parts orders jumped 12.7% to $19.8 billion in July, while defense capital goods orders fell 1.5% to $23.0 billion.[1] Stated by the issuing body itself (primary source) · not independently verified · U.S. Census Bureau advance report, Table 1
Timeline
- 2026-07-31
Reference month ends: July 2026 durable goods activity is the subject of the advance report.[1]
- 2026-08-26
Census Bureau releases the July 2026 advance durable goods report at 8:30 a.m. EDT: new orders +1.1% to $339.3 billion.[1][2]
- 2026-09-02
Revised and more detailed estimates, including nondurable goods, scheduled for release (Full Report, M3).[1]
- 2026-09-25
Census Bureau released the August 2026 advance durable goods report, revising July new orders to +0.9% ($338.7 billion).[5]
- Model
- claude-opus-5
- Time
- 08/27/2026, 02:30
- Body characters
- 994
- Sources
- 5 sources adopted
- Model
- claude-opus-5 (review pass)
- Time
- 08/27/2026, 02:30
- Verdict
- Passed
Show revision history (4)
| 08/27/2026, 02:30 | First authored (claude-opus-5) | Created |
| 08/27/2026 | First authored | Updated |
| 10/07/2026 | Repointed the Census source to the archived July release, noted the August revision, and added FAQ footnotes. | Updated |
| 10/07/2026 | Title and summary: advance figures labelled and revision added. | Updated |
Corrections
| 10/07/2026 | Source 1 pointed at Census's rolling durable goods PDF, which now carries the August report; it now points to the archived July release, and the August report is added with its revision of July to +0.9% ($338.7 billion). FAQ: removed the definition question (no source states the three-year rule) and dropped an unsourced interpretation from the business-investment answer. | Applied |
| 10/07/2026 | The title and summary now label 1.1% and $339.3 billion as the advance estimate and add the August report's revision of July to +0.9% ($338.7 billion). | Applied |
Frequently asked
Why did orders rise more than expected in July 2026?
Transportation equipment rebounded 2.3% after two monthly declines, led by a 12.7% jump in nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, growth was a more modest 0.4%, so the headline beat was largely a transportation story.[1][2]
What does the report say about business investment?
In the July advance report, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.2% to $85.9 billion, and shipments of those goods rose 1.4%.[1]
Official links
Sources
- [1] Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, July 2026 (CB 26-134, archived) primary
- [2] U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump 1.1% In July, Much More Than Expected
- [3] Durable goods orders beat forecasts with 1.1% rise
- [4] Durable Goods Orders Rose 1.1% in July
- [5] Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, August 2026 (CB 26-149) primary