How to Read the Census Quarterly Services Survey — Selected Service Industries' Revenue, Advance vs Full Reports and Seasonal Adjustment

As of 29 October 2026 (KST); most recently published report: Quarterly Selected Services Estimates, Second Quarter 2026, released by the U.S. Census Bureau at 10:00 a.m. EDT on September 9, 2026 (CB26-146). The release says: "The third quarter 2026 Advance Quarterly Services Report is scheduled for release on November 19, 2026." The full third-quarter report is scheduled for December 10, 2026, and the schedule lists all releases at 10 a.m. Primary source: https://www.census.gov/services/qss/qss-current.pdf^[1][2][3]

Comparison basis: Tables 1a and 1c are in millions of dollars and this page shows levels rounded to $0.1 billion; percentage changes and margins of error are the published figures from the release text. The total and five sectors in the table are seasonally adjusted, but the release gives finance and insurance only without seasonal adjustment, so its change from the first quarter compares unadjusted quarters. No figure in the report is adjusted for price changes. The report, release page, schedule and survey pages are all from the Census Bureau and count as one source.^[1]

In three lines

1. The Quarterly Services Survey estimates quarterly revenue of U.S. employer firms in selected service industries, and expenses of tax-exempt firms in industries with a large not-for-profit component.
2. As published on September 9, 2026, seasonally adjusted selected services revenue was an estimated $6,418.7 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 3.0% (±0.4%) from the first quarter.
3. Third-quarter figures are expected in an advance report on November 19, 2026, and a full report on December 10, 2026.^[1][3]

"U.S. selected services total revenue for the second quarter of 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $6,418.7 billion, an increase of 3.0 percent (± 0.4 percent) from the first quarter of 2026 and up 7.6 percent (± 0.6 percent) from the second quarter of 2025." "The first quarter of 2026 to second quarter of 2026 percentage change was revised from the advance estimate of 3.1 percent (± 0.4 percent)."^[1]

Content. "The QSS is a principal economic indicator that produces, for selected service industries, quarterly estimates of total operating revenue and the percentage of revenue by class of customer (government, business, household consumers/individual users)." The survey also estimates hospital inpatient days and discharges, which this page does not cover.^[4]

Who is in the sample. "The current total sample size is approximately 19,500 employer firms." "Data for nonresponding firms are imputed based on data for similar-sized firms classified in the same kind of business." The total covers the twelve sectors and subsectors listed in the table footnote, from utilities to other services, and excludes, for example, rail transportation, the postal service, elementary and secondary schools, colleges and universities, and religious organizations.^[1]

Fiscal-year reporters. "Since not all companies maintain their quarterly records on a calendar quarter, the Census Bureau accepts, evaluates, and uses the fiscal quarter data as part of the QSS collection unless it determines that the reported data are not representative of the calendar quarter."^[7]

Seasonally adjusted vs not adjusted. The not seasonally adjusted total rose 5.3% from the first quarter (Table 1c) while the seasonally adjusted total rose 3.0% (Table 1a); compared with a year earlier the two are close, at 7.7% and 7.6%. The Census Bureau's seasonal adjustment FAQ gives an example: "An example of a seasonal effect is an increase in accounting services during the tax season." In the report, unadjusted accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll revenue rose 34.4% in the first quarter and fell 13.0% in the second, while the seasonally adjusted series rose 2.8% and 1.5%.^[1][6]

Advance vs full report. The full report revised the total's quarterly increase from the advance estimate of 3.1% to 3.0%, and finance and insurance from 4.2% to 4.1%. The advance FAQ explains the difference in scope: "The Selected Service Total is the only seasonally adjusted estimate that is updated in the Advance Report."^[1][5]

Change vs margin of error. "Each comparison stated in this report has undergone statistical testing and is significant at the 90-percent confidence level, unless otherwise noted." Changes marked with an asterisk are the exception: "The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero." "There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero." In the second quarter this applied to administrative and support and waste management services (+1.0%, ±2.1%), educational services (-0.6%, ±3.6%) and accommodation (-0.1%, ±1.1%).^[1]

Sampling error vs imputation. Margins of error reflect sampling error; the report says nonsampling error is not measured directly. Its imputation table shows the share of total quarterly revenue that was imputed: 29% for the selected services total, 8% for utilities, 46% for real estate and rental and leasing and 50% for educational services.^[1]

"With each non-advance quarterly release, we publish preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates for the current quarter and revised seasonally adjusted estimates for the previous five quarters." "The seasonal adjustment models used to derive seasonal factors for each kind of business will not be revised until the next benchmarking operation." For example, utilities' fourth-quarter-to-first-quarter change was revised: "The fourth quarter of 2025 to first quarter of 2026 percentage change was revised from 4.8 percent (± 1.3 percent) to 4.2 percent (± 1.3 percent)."^[1]

Short series. A footnote to the seasonally adjusted tables says: "The seasonal factors are based on a short time series that may not have stable seasonal patterns." "Data users should exercise caution when drawing inferences based on the seasonally adjusted estimates." The sampling-variability tables add: "Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on data not adjusted for seasonal variation, and should be used when drawing inferences about both adjusted and not adjusted estimates."^[1]

Upcoming benchmark. "Effective with the November 2026 advance release for the third quarter of 2026, we anticipate that not seasonally adjusted quarterly services estimates will be revised to reflect historical corrections and results of the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey." "The seasonally adjusted Selected Services Total will be revised to reflect historical corrections, results of the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey, and new seasonal factors."^[1]

Finance and insurance. "U.S. finance and insurance revenue for the second quarter of 2026, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $1,973.5 billion, an increase of 4.1 percent (± 0.4 percent) from the first quarter of 2026 and up 7.6 percent (± 1.1 percent) from the second quarter of 2025." A table note adds: "For NAICS 52, estimates may include unrealized gains (losses)."^[1]

"In addition, the release also allows the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to incorporate services data into the second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." "Prior to the implementation of the Advance Quarterly Services Report, Quarterly Services Survey estimates were incorporated in the third estimate of GDP." The survey overview adds: "In the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), the quarterly data allow more accurate estimates of both Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and private fixed investment."^[4][5]